Why Chris Davis can keep this going

Orioles first baseman Chris Davis has opened up 2013 with some incredible performances at the plate. Through the first two weeks of this season, Davis is hitting .366 with six home runs and 19 RBI. While streaks like this from Davis aren’t new to O’s fans, there is hope that Davis can even out his level of play for the rest of this season.

The big negative of Davis’ game has been the strikeout totals. A general rule of thumb has been: give Chris Davis 300 at bats and he’ll strike out 100 times. In 2012, Davis’ first full year with Baltimore, he struck out 169 times in 525 at bats. His last previous season over 100 games was in 2011 with the Rangers,where Davis struck out 105 times in 398 at bats. In 2009 He struck out 150 times in 391 at bats in Texas. As one would think, Davis’ strikeout percentage when tallied with all plate appearances has also been high. He struck out 30.1% of the time with the Orioles in 2012, as well as 27.6% and 35.8% in the seasons mentioned above, respectively.

Watching Davis strike out has been pretty painful for fans. Most of the strikeouts aren’t taken looking at close pitches. Seeing Davis swing and miss at pitches in the dirt reminds one of that guy on the golf course hacking away until there’s just a divot the size of a bowling ball left. In other words, it’s not just bad, it’s downright ugly. Davis swung at 39.8% of the pitches he saw out of the strike zone last year. In 2011 he swung at 45.6% outside the strike zone. He swung at 30.2% in 2010, 33.9% in 2009, and 37.3% in 2008. For comparison’s sake, Nick Markakis’ career high in this category was last year at 27.6%.

While all these damning numbers tell us that Davis will keep striking out, the trends appear different so far this season. Davis is swinging at just 26.8% of pitches outside the zone so far in 2013, and has dropped his swing percentage as a whole down to 44.8% from 54.9% last year. As a result, his contact rates are skyrocketing. He is making contact with 69.2% of pitches outside the zone (up 13.2 points), 93.6% of pitches inside the zone (up 10.9 points), and 84.9% of pitches overall (up 13.9 points). This has lead to his strikeout rate dropping down to 24% so far this season (up from 19% after Sunday night’s game against a very impressive Hiroki Kuroda).

So, why do I think this isn’t just an early season flash in the pan? Davis has done this before. In his last mostly-full year in the minors in 2010, Davis posted SABR numbers very similar to what he is posting this year in terms of swing rate and contact percentage. When he started getting big league call-ups he immediately became more aggressive while trying to make a lasting impact for the Rangers. His swing rates on pitches outside the zone jumped up (with a high of 45.6% in his last year there), while his contact rates declined. This trend stayed put until now. Finally comfortable at a good ball club, Davis has the opportunity to be more patient, and will see better pitches to hit as a result.

For reference (and to get the hopes of all of Oriole nation up): in that last patient year of 2010, Davis hit .327 with 14 HR and 80 RBI at AAA Round Rock.

-All statistics were obtained from Fangraphs.com