Highly successful MLB teams are able to concentrate superstar talent in the top half of their lineups. They then supplement that talent with useful role players, strong side platoon mashers, defensive standouts and other pieces that amount to a deep and multifaceted roster.
The Orioles are well on their way to a lineup halfway composed of superstars. Steamer 600 projects just five teams to have two or more offensive players inside the top 20 in 2024 WAR. That short list includes the Braves (Acuna, Harris, & Olson), the Astros (Alvarez, Tucker & Bregman), the Padres, for now, (Soto and Tatis), the Dodgers (Betts and Freeman), and the Orioles (Henderson and Rutschman). With a Soto trade seeming like a foregone conclusion, the Orioles are in elite company with perhaps the three best-run teams in baseball.
Staggeringly, Jackson Holliday, the Orioles’ stud SS prospect and the #1 prospect in baseball by most prognosticators, already projects as the 46th best player in baseball (per Steamer 600). If Holliday comes close to or even exceeds his 3.2 WAR projection, there’s a reasonable chance that he will also crack the top 20 in next year’s projections, giving the Orioles an elite top-3 in their order.
But this is not a Jackson Holliday article.
No audio but O’s C prospect Samuel Basallo broke the sound barrier anyway. Look at where this thing ends up! The O’s are so full of talent #RisingTide pic.twitter.com/ebFCtxhvTC
— Eric_Birdland (@Eric_Birdland) April 8, 2023
This is a Samuel Basallo article.
I’ve been surprised over the last few months how many formal and informal (i.e. fan Twitter/X posts) Orioles top 10 prospect lists have had Basallo, 19, in the 4-6 range, often behind guys like 24-year-old Heston Kjerstad and 23-year-old Colton Cowser. While both Kjerstad and Cowser are nice prospects in their own right, I’d guess that their chances of turning into superstar (top-20) players is just about their 99th percentile outcomes. If we look at Dan Szymborski’s ZIPs projections for the 2024 Orioles, Cowser (2.9) and Kjerstad’s (2.6) 80th percentile WAR outcome fall well short of superstar status (notably, Holliday’s 80th percentile projection (4.1) would have him as a top-20 player).
What makes Basallo so compelling is not just his light-tower power, rapidly advancing plate skills, and chance to play catcher at an acceptable MLB level, but how incredibly dominant he was as an 18 year old in 2023 against much older (but apparently not more advanced) competition.
In fact, his performance just might have been historic. Below is a table of current MLB stars who tallied a significant amount of plate appearances as 18-year-olds.
How shall I put this? Among a group of players that litter the list of top-20 projected MLB players going into 2024, Basallo’s age-18 season, compared to those of this group of MLB superstars, was undeniably the best. His OPS was more than 20 points higher than the next closest player (Julio Rodriguez) while reaching a level (AA) that only one other player reached (Fernando Tatis Jr.).
Just doing this research and putting this table together, I, as a fan, am in total awe.
Today was the Samuel Basallo Game™️
This is the impact he can make on a game & a team. Sam turns 19 in August. The future looks very bright, but the baseball instincts mixed with ability are crystal clear very early in development #futurestar pic.twitter.com/cGdjDepGNL— Eric_Birdland (@Eric_Birdland) April 23, 2023
Basallo’s 2023 season is incomparable to that of any player coming out of the American high school or college ranks; players coming from these backgrounds play their age-18 seasons against substantially weaker high school competition.
Even among his fellow international signing superstar points of comparison, Basallo demonstrated the rare characteristic of improving drastically across levels as he climbed to AA. While his overall numbers are historic, his April/May to June and beyond splits were otherworldly.
From June on, Basallo also had nearly a 1:1 (50:56) BB:K rate.
Forget a green arrow, Basallo should have a rocket ship next to his name on any prospect list.
In my mind, Basallo is a close #2 in the Orioles system and an easy top-10 prospect in baseball with an argument to be in the upper half of the top-10.
Elias & co. may have done it again. The Orioles are well on their way to being, perhaps as soon as 2025, the only team in baseball with FOUR top 20 players, four SUPERSTAR players at the top of their lineup.
Soak it in, O’s fans.
2 Responses
Definitly true that he will be a star. But dont forget that we already have a C on Audley. That being said either Basallo switch positions or he will be traded beacuse I dont think you want that kind of talent as a backup.
He’s already learning first, perhaps he may play some first some catcher on Adley’s days off and DH to keep his bat in lineup.