The (un)need for speed
Maverick and Goose had it, but I’m not certain the Orioles have “the need for speed.”
I understand why you might think that they do. Heck, we were repeatedly told during the ALCS telecasts how we were watching the team with the fewest steals against the team with the most.
Being a traditionalist, I expect each team would want a leadoff man that can steal 30+ bases and more speed sprinkled throughout the lineup in the appropriate places.
So I set out to write a post about how the Orioles do in fact have a “need for speed.”
Now, I’m not so sure.
Numbers Lie
The Orioles stole 44 bases last season. I got tired of going back to see how long it has been (or ever been) since the O’s had fewer.
The number is low, but needs a little perspective. Worth mentioning is that the 2013 Cardinals that went to the World Series had 45 steals. The last St. Louis team to win a WS title stole a pedestrian 57 bases.
Arguably, the Orioles’ 44 steals were more than the 57 the Cards had that year.
Wait Karl, what kind of Common Core math is that?
St. Louis stole 57 bases, but were caught 39 times. They netted only 18 steals. Last year’s Orioles netted 24 steals, being caught 20 of the 64 times they ran.
This is as close to metric-type thinking as I’m going to get.
Come to think of it, can I copyright “net steals” or is it already one of those stats a bored MLB Network intern came up with?
He’s Got Something Here
Speaking of metrics, I hope you gave Austin Robinson’s piece on the leadoff hitter situation a read. He uses a lot of abbreviations and stats that you’ll never see on a baseball card or on a Hall of Fame plaque, but he’s got a great point.
In all of that stuff, Austin hits on the most important thing a leadoff hitter needs to do: get on base. Think about the years Wade Boggs led off for the Red Sox. Boggs wasn’t a base stealer (24 in 18 seasons), but you sure had a good chance of getting your leadoff man aboard with him sitting atop the lineup.
This is the mindset Buck Showalter appears to have if you listen to his responses when he’s been asked this offseason about the leadoff position.
Steals Still Matter
With all of the above said, I do think the Orioles need an infusion of stolen bases. I don’t have any stats to back this up, but I’d bet the O’s led the league in leadoff hits and walks that did not come around to score.
The O’s have a couple big rally killers in the middle of the lineup with Adam Jones and Chris Davis, since both have a better chance of striking out than moving a runner up. That means the man on base is going to have to move around the horn on their own.
Other than wild pitches and passed balls, they’re going to need to do it via the stolen base.
Ultimately, the difference between making it to the ALCS and winning the World Series isn’t going to be 30 more stolen bases during the regular season, so let’s cool our jets (see what I did there?)
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