Intentionally walking Davis a gamble that keeps paying off for opponents

There are some people who will tell you that the idea of line-up protection – the thought that a player batting in front of a feared hitter will get better pitches to hit than if said feared hitter was not in the line-up – is a fallacy. Certainly, there are truths held in arguments both for and against the idea of line-up protection. However, one case where line-up protection can possibly play a monumental role in deciding the outcome of the game is plaguing the Orioles.

One of the many categories that Chris Davis is currently leading the American League in is intentional walks. Davis’ seven intentional walks through 50 games played is already a career high for the left-hander, who currently has more than Albert Pujols (6), Miguel Cabrera (5) and Robinson Cano (5).

Typically, the Orioles would be enthused about being handed free base runners. However, at a drastic percentage, the intentional walk is a successful gamble for their opponents. The remaining hitters to bat in the inning following an intentional walk to Davis are a combined 1-12 (.083) with only two earned runs scoring. Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy are the only two batters to immediately follow Davis in the order after an intentional walk. When batting directly behind Davis, following an intentional pass, Wieters is 0-3 with two strikeouts and Hardy is 0-4. When Davis is intentionally walked with two outs in an inning, Wieters/Hardy are hitless (0-5) behind him.

The only hit in an inning following a Davis intentional walk was on Saturday by Matt Wieters, who doubled in two runs two batters later. That was Davis’ third intentional pass of the day, and the O’s finally made Toronto pay. Hardy had gone 0-for-3, stranding five runners, previously.

The lack of production following a Davis intentional walk is startling and would be a bigger cause of concern if the lineup as a whole was not producing. However, as it gets later in the season and each at bat begins to matter much more, the Orioles are going to want protection behind Davis in the lineup, forcing pitchers to either face Davis or put the game into the hands of another productive bat.

Maybe the Orioles should take a look at what the Detroit Tigers did with protecting Miguel Cabrera. In 2011, Cabrera was intentionally walked 22 times. The batters immediately following Cabrera were 4-22 (.182) after intentional walks to the slugger. After the 2011 season, the Tigers signed Prince Fielder and planted him directly behind Cabrera. In 2012, Cabrera was intentionally walked 17 times. Fielder and other batters who hit directly behind Cabrera were 5-12 (.417) with four walks and a sacrifice fly immediately following intentional walks.

The Orioles will not be able to land a Prince Fielder-caliber player before the deadline, but finding someone who can be feared (and do better than 1-12) after intentional walks to Davis should be atop their midsummer to-do list.