There’s no doubt the signing of Nelson Cruz was a bold and exciting move for Orioles fans this offseason, especially compared to acquisitions in the past.
Cruz is known for his power; he’s hit 25 or more HRs in three out of the past five seasons and has had a SLG of .500 or better for four out of the past five.
But does he help solve the Orioles’ continuing on-base percentage (OBP) issues, as some have claimed?
Yes and no.
Cruz has put up a career .327 OBP overall, a figure he matched last season. In 2013, Orioles DHs posted an OBP of .293 overall. This is where a lot of people have stopped and said Cruz is a definite improvement.
Let’s go a bit further than that though, courtesy of Fangraphs.
Here’s what the Orioles’ DHs had for stats in OBP, P/PA and BB%:
Now, the Orioles traded Danny Valencia, the right-handed part of the DH platoon, for David Lough. Essentially the Orioles are replacing Valencia with Cruz, except that Cruz will be playing full time.
Here’s how Valencia’s numbers look for his career and how they looked last season:
Valencia’s low BB% was a surprise given his high P/PA. The guy was clearly on fire last year against LHP, while hacking away in vain against RHP.
Finally, here are Cruz’s stats over the past four seasons:
Cruz had been outstanding versus LHP until last season when his OBP took a bit of a hit. Against RHP, his OBP finally climbed back over .300 in 2013, which is encouraging. His BB% has been steadily increasing as well. His P/PA vs. both RHP and LHP were also very good in 2013. Still, it’s hard to not look at those two years of sub .300 OBP performances versus RHP and not be concerned.
Comparing him to the Orioles’ DHs in 2013 and specifically Valencia, overall, Cruz is an upgrade vs. RHP, but how much of an upgrade remains to be seen as he’s had those two sub .300 OBP seasons before last and has been below 4.0 P/PA. Against LHP he’s pretty similar to Valencia except for the higher BB percentage, and Valencia topped him in OBP and P/PA in 2013.
The Orioles needed to add OBP, P/PA and BB% this offseason to the DH spot, and with the subtraction of Valencia and addition of Cruz, they may have done just that versus RHP, as they’ve done with McLouth and Lough in left field respectively versus LHP. However, like Lough the upgrade is not enough to seriously raise the team’s overall OBP, especially if Cruz reverts back to his sub .300 OBP versus RHP. Cruz also is not much of an upgrade if any over Valencia versus LHP and he comes at a much higher price in terms of dollars and the second round draft pick, along with the unknown performance level after his PED suspension.
The Orioles would obviously love to see his 2010 performance replicated, but they must hope Cruz maintains his 2013 numbers versus RHP at the very least. If he doesn’t, the duration of this “Cruz” isn’t going be very pleasant, and the Orioles’ investment in him will truly be sunk.
One Response
It’s weird, because you’ve written two things already this week about how Cruz is awful and the O’s have given up on their efforts to improve team OBP. Let alone that your analysis in no way contemplate Markakis, Machado, Wieters, or Lough improving at all — which all can be suggested, if not supported statistically (instead choosing to cherry-pick McLouth’s numbers versus rhp to serve your argument), you chose to nitpick the Orioles on their team OBP, using the Cruz deal as an example. As always, your effort rates around a C/C+ on the grade scale because you reference some of the right things, you just have no actual idea how to apply them.