Most people picture spread betting, totals, or moneyline bets when the subject of sports betting comes up. All of these bets relate to the result of the game. Prop betting is different in that it answers a question that might or might not directly impact the end result.
In football, every play can allow one to accumulate stats. Popular football prop bets include:
- Rushing yards
- Passing yards
- Receiving yards
- Touchdowns
- Receptions
- Interceptions
- Distance of longest TD
Props are derived from totals and game lines. When lines move, one must adjust their expectations accordingly. If you respond to market movements quickly, you can take advantage and win money.
Let’s say you’re looking at the betting lines for NFL season week 1. There is a drop in the total points for Cleveland Browns. This could be due to bad weather or an injured team member. Prop markets don’t have to move with a total drop correspondingly. Punters might bet the under hurriedly but could be slower to hit. In this case, you can bet the under before a market movement in line with the total. Don’t forget to check out the BetMGM Ohio sportsbook odds.
Line Shopping
Line shopping plays an integral part in prop betting, more so than all other types of wagers. When a spread or something similar finds a market consensus number, prop markets can exhibit extreme variation. There could be a vast discrepancy between any two bookies’ markets.
Coaching and Injuries
You should turn special attention to coaching tendencies and injuries. You’ll find value and stay ahead if you take notes on situational trends.
The market won’t always react as expected to a critical injury. For instance, a key player sustains an ankle injury and will spend a few weeks on the bench. You might win money from a few of their teammates’ overs because you expect a more accelerated pace. It could have a positive effect across the board.
Consider All Possible Angles
On a micro level, coaching trends can shift rapidly. This won’t be reflected in the market immediately. You might notice an NFL team has tried to get a rookie receiver involved, but this player’s statistics have yet to show it. He might have dropped a significant pass or drawn some flags, which kept his numbers down. You could win money betting his receptions and yardage over until his big game, which will inevitably come.
Prop Bet Bias
There is a considerable bias toward overs versus unders in many cases. Taking the opposite view can help you find value. Bookmakers are aware of this bias and shade numbers toward the former, meaning unders can hold more value.
