It’s the same thing, just a different day. Another cold winter day goes by to match the cold Orioles offseason. We’ve been singing the same tune since the Winter Meetings in December.
We’ve discussed the need for pitching, namely a starter and a closer.
We’ve discussed the need for a competent DH and the unwillingness to part with a first round pick or spend the money the market dictates to fill these holes.
What we haven’t discussed is the core of this team that makes them contenders without doing much of anything since the Fall Classic concluded.
The Baltimore Orioles have the envy of the rest of baseball for the core group of players they trot out each and every day. They boast the best defense in baseball, anchored by Gold Glovers J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Even first baseman Chris Davis was a finalist for the award in 2013.
Offensively they are one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball. Davis and Jones combined for 86 home runs in 2013. Wieters and Hardy put together their third straight seasons of 22 or more home runs. Machado led the league with 51 doubles. Nobody can question the offensive firepower of a ballclub that scored 745 runs and smacked 212 home runs in 2013.
But even with a solid core, improvement is needed to make up the difference from a playoff run in 2012 to a “just missed” 2013.
The Orioles still have trouble getting on base. The club’s .313 OBP ranked 10th in the American League. Only one regular (Chris Davis-.370) got on base at clip higher than .330. Wieters was the worst of the regulars with an OBP of just .287, though Hardy’s .306 isn’t much better.
A guy like Jones, who hits 25+ home runs every year, should have a higher OBP then .318. This group as a whole shows a lack of plate discipline, which can also be seen in the atrocious numbers with runners in scoring position.
Some may question that last remark. The team was 8th in all of baseball with a .266 average with RISP. That tends to happen when a team wins 85 games despite having the 8th worst ranked pitching staff. But when looking at the numbers a bit closer, say in their 77 losses, the numbers can be quite disturbing (BUCKle Up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride).
The Orioles played in 96 games in the first “half” of 2013, going 53-43. As a team, the Orioles hit .235 with RISP in their 43 first half losses. The club had seven hitless games with RISP in those losses.
The Orioles played in 66 games in the second “half” of 2013, going 32-34. As a team, the Orioles hit just .163 with RISP in their 34 second half losses. The club had 11 hitless games with RISP in those losses and just three of those 34 losses featured more than two hits with RISP. For the 2013 season, the ballclub hit .199 with RISP in their 77 losses.
In 2013, the Orioles lost 46 games in which they scored three runs or less (20 first half, 26 second half). The club went just 30-for-256 in those 46 games, a .117 clip.
Many will agree that the Orioles fielded a better overall team in 2013 than the team that took the Yankees to five games in the ALDS in 2012. That showed in the first half. What happened in the second half can be directly related to the lack of production with RISP.
Nobody can be certain as to exactly what happened to the offensive production in the season’s last 66 games. Maybe they buckled under the pressure of heightened expectations. Maybe they were finally exposed. Or maybe they just got tired. None of that matters right now. All that matters is finding a solution.
Hitters as dangerous as Jones, Machado (.314), Hardy and Wieters simply need to get on base more. They need to learn how to work a count and use their talent to their advantage. Hell, even Markakis (.329) was 31 points lower than his career OBP of .360. Say what you will about the Yankees and Red Sox, but the fact that they are in the playoffs year-in and year-out can be directly related to those teams’ ability to work a count. For the Orioles, it may be as important as finding that veteran starting pitcher in getting them back to the postseason.
