For Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles, game no. 30 might be the biggest game of the year to date. For the Orioles–riding a three-game winning streak–it’s an opportunity to move a season-high 10-games above .500 while also completing their first three game series sweep of the season.
For Tillman, it’s an opportunity to put his lingering shoulder issues behind him once and for all, and a chance to stabilize a rotation that has been put through the ringer over the last week. More importantly for Tillman, it’s a chance to start his final season before free agency and earn what is sure to be a lucrative multi-year contract this offseason.
While the Orioles and their fans are clamoring for the return of Tillman, many view his four rehab starts as cause for concern. In those four starts, Tillman went 0-3 while pitching to a 7.16 ERA in 16.1 IP, surrendering 20 hits, 15 runs (13 ER), and a staggering seven home runs. While those numbers are eye-popping for all the wrong reasons, I urge everyone to take his stat-line with a grain of salt.
For Tillman, those four minor-league starts were the equivalent of spring training for the rest of the staff, and as we all know, spring training numbers can be deceiving. Essentially, spring training (or rehab starts) is the time to work on mechanics and pitch execution while giving little attention to the results. While good results would be ideal, they are not as imperative as the overall health and stamina a pitcher exhibits during this time.
For example, Dylan Bundy and Wade Miley were less than stellar this spring. Bundy pitched to a 7.41 ERA over 17 IP in the Grapefruit League. He’s 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA this season with quality starts in all seven outings and is establishing himself as the ace of this staff. Wade Miley pitched to a 5.54 ERA in 13 Grapefruit League innings. He’s 1-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six starts this season.
On the other side of things, Kevin Gausman pitched to a 1.98 ERA this spring in 13.2 IP. He is 1-2 with a 7.55 ERA in seven starts this season. So what does this all mean?
It means that nobody should take anything other than the regular season seriously. A switch flips for these players once the games start to matter, and the same should hold true for Tillman. With that being said, what should we expect from Tillman’s first start?
Rust. Plan and simple. Nobody should expect him to pitch to the level he’s pitched to in his career to this point. Look for him to minimize damage and use the game as a stepping stone to what we can only hope is healthy and productive season.
