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Why I’m not sold on Ubaldo Jimenez…

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The Orioles finally gave in to the fans and decided to spend money on a pitcher. With the signing of Ubaldo Jimenez to a four-year contract (pending a physical), the O’s opened their wallet and added a starting pitcher.

The problem?

I just don’t think Jimenez is a difference maker. After showing promise early in his career, Jimenez hit a rough spot in 2011 and 2012, before rebounding in 2013.

Did he really though? The end of the season numbers suggest Jimenez had a bounce back season, as he finished the year with a 3.30 ERA and almost 10 strikeouts per 9 innings.

However, in Jimenez’s first 19 starts in 2013, he had an ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP approaching 1.50 with 53 walks. The last 13 starts, the ERA dropped to 1.82, the WHIP to 1.143 and the strikeouts to almost 11 per nine innings.

No question Jimenez was elite down the stretch, but did he get hot at the right time, or did he turn his career around? I have 2 ½ consecutive years that show a below average pitcher compared to 13 starts that show an elite starter.

Two big complaints over the years about the Orioles pitching staff is they walk a lot of batters and they don’t pitch deep enough in ballgames. For Jimenez’s career, he has averaged four walks per nine innings and six innings per start – not exactly thrilling numbers.

Even last season, Jimenez struggled to pitch deep.

The other worrisome about Jimenez is his fastball velocity has been decreasing steadily. According to FanGraphs.com, Jimenez had a fastball average of 93.9 in 2011. It dropped to 92.1 this past season. That is a significant drop in two seasons, especially when you consider the Orioles just locked him up for the next four years.

The positive for Jimenez is he doesn’t give up the long ball. For his career, Jimenez gives up 0.7 homeruns per nine innings. With the small ballparks in the AL East and the strong defense the Orioles have, that is a huge positive.

When you factor in age, the length of the contract, the money the O’s are paying, and surrendering a first round pick, Jimenez is expected to the be the leader of the pitching staff and help return the Orioles back to October baseball.

I just don’t believe he is that type of pitcher.

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