We can’t sugarcoat it – Chris Davis was painful to watch in 2014, especially after the fabulous 2013 he had. 53 HR, .370 OBP, and a ridiculous .348 ISO (Isolated Power – in 2013, the next highest among players with at least 250 Plate Appearances was Miguel Cabrera with a .288).
However, in 2014 Davis ceased to be of virtually any value. But why?
First, lets start with a few encouraging signs – signs that tell me he does have a chance to return to, if not 2013 levels, maybe the production of his 2012 season, which was more than solid.
So to start, Davis did increase his Line Drive percentage in 2014 by about three percent, and his HR/FB (home run to fly ball ratio) dropped by seven percent – perhaps a bit of bad luck. Plus, he actually swung at fewer pitches that were outside the strike zone – he dropped it from 35% in 2013 to 31% in 2014.
Problem was, he stopped swinging period – pitches inside the zone, pitches he swung at 71% of the time in 2013, he only swung at 65% of the time in 2014.
But why did he drop off? I believe pitchers started to figure out how to pitch him. In 2014 Davis saw fewer fastballs and a lot more off-speed pitches. About 19% of the pitches he saw in 2013 were off-speed (either curveballs or change-ups), whereas in 2014 he saw roughly 24% of the two pitches combined.
That certainly had something to do with it – as we all know Davis struggles to hit off-speed pitches.
We can also look at his spray charts to seek explanation. Here is his 2013.
And here is 2014.
To start, look at the black dots – which are home runs – and you will notice that there are many more headed to LF in 2013. And it’s not only the HRs – there is so much more of everything headed the other way in 2013, from home runs to ground balls to flyballs.
There actually aren’t too many more groundouts to 2nd Base in 2014, but it’s the groundouts to shallow RF where they shift him that absolutely killed him. Essentially, the shift killed Chris Davis, as evidenced by his severe drop in BABIP – a not-too-unsustainable .336 in 2013 to a .242 in 2014
I’m not quite sure what happened, but Davis ceased to be able to hit the ball the other way in 2014.
If he can improve his HR/FB ratio (a seven percent drop from 2013 to 2014), Davis will certainly have a better season. Plus, if he is able to hit the balls the other way again – like he did in 2013 – he has a chance to return to being a feared power hitter.
Sure, Chris Davis will probably never have another season like he did in 2013. But he should be able to replicate numbers similar to those he put up in 2012 – .326 OBP, .501 SLG, 121 wRC+, 33 HR – and that would be a welcome boost for this Orioles offense that needs to replace the production of one Nelson Cruz.
