What are the O’s getting in Everth Cabrera?
Cabrera is a typical Dan Duquette signing: very low risk, with the potential for a very high reward.
[Related: Cabrera Another Deft Duquette Signing]
Cabrera, primarily a shortstop but a guy who could also play second base, has had an up and down career. In 2009, he posted a solid .342 OBP and 25 stolen bases; however, he only put up a 95 OPS+ to go along with a 95 wRC+ (both on scale of 100 being league average; league and park adjusted). Basically, he was below average offensively – albeit only slightly – despite being on base a good amount of the time.
He followed that up with two injury-plagued seasons before putting it together in 2012. He posted a good walk rate, led the NL in steals with 44, and – cumulative – was a 1.5 win player according to WAR, despite playing in only 115 games. Yet, his offense was once again below average – 87 wRC+, 85 OPS+, plus a measly .324 SLG.
But in 2013, he really broke out. He played only 95 games, but had 37 steals, and posted a .283/.355/.381 triple slash line, all the while doing it with a fairly sustainable BABIP of .337.
He also had a 6.3 BsR (Baserunning runs above average; league average is zero), which put him at tenth in the league, ahead of baserunning studs Carlos Gomez and Coco Crisp.
Now, he is a defensive liability – in 2012, he established a -5 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and in 2013, his UZR was -1.1. But we must remember that both of those were him playing at shortstop. He does also have experience at second base, and in 80 total innings at second, his UZR was 1.2, slightly above average. Defensive Runs Saved echoes that sentiment of average – he saved exactly zero runs in his 80 innings at second base, but he didn’t cost his team any runs either.
One of the reasons he was out on the free agent market so long is that his 2014 was atrocious. But why? How did he have solid seasons in 2012 and 2013, yet collapse in 2014? How did he go from a three-win player in 2013, to a negative WAR player in just as many games in 2014?
For starters, his walk rate went from nearly ten percent to just over five percent. His strikeout rate went way up, from 16% in 2013 to 22% in 2014. When your walk rate goes down, and your strikeout rate goes up, you’re due for regression. His BABIP also went down from .337 to .294, which is a recipe for a downturn.
I’m going to trust Cabrera’s two solid seasons versus his one bad year. Now, he may never post a .355 OBP, 114 wRC+ or a 113 OPS+ again, but being above league average is certainly within reach. Plus, his defense has proved better at second base than shortstop, which is likely where he’d be playing for this current Orioles team.
All things considered, I believe this is a great signing for the O’s. It has zero risk and if Cabrera improves his defense and can return to his level of production in 2013 – or close to it – he can certainly be an asset to the team.
2 Responses
Good post. Competition brings out performance and the O’s need more from 2B. We have heard a lot of criticism from the so-called experts that the Orioles made no moves in the offseason but we all know differently. Adding Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, and the real Chris Davis to a lineup is as big as any other club’s additions. The 2B position will improve- either by a young player taking a step forward or a veteran addition plugging in. DD knows the value of competition- and having a backup plan. The Orioles won the AL East by a lot last year, why wouldn’t they be considered the #1 contender this year? Because the moves they made were not splashy and don’t drive clicks on the internet or eyeballs to the tube. Watch out, AL East, Baltimore is the champ until someone proves otherwise.
Thank you, sir. I do agree, second base was a black hole offensively (although I really like Lombardozzi and Weeks early in the year), and Cabrera certainly has the upside to supplant Schoop in that spot. Schoop would benefit from more minor league seasoning, and Flaherty will only ever be a utility man.
Thanks for the comment, man. Appreciate hearing your though!