After going through the first two weeks of the season with a 6-7 record, the Baltimore Orioles were able to even their record at 12-12 by going 6-5 in the 11 games played over the past two weeks (one game was rained out).
The Orioles had one of the toughest schedules in all of baseball in the season’s first month, yet have managed to keep their head just above water as they enter the season’s fifth week. So how were the Birds able to win six of the last 11 games, and how were they able to lose five of the last 11? Let’s stick to baseball at its simplest: pitching, hitting, and defense.
Pitching
There’s an old adage in baseball: “Good pitching beats good hitting.” It’s on the same level as “defense wins championships” in football. And when the Orioles pitch well, they win. In the six games the Orioles have won over the last two weeks, the team has pitched to a 3.93 ERA. As always, however, another adage also holds true: “with the good comes the bad.”
In the Orioles’ five losses over the last two weeks, the team has pitched to a 5.91 ERA. The fact remains that the Orioles starting rotation is not getting the job done. Ubaldo Jimenez has yet to record a quality start in five outings, staff ace Chris Tillman has three mediocre starts wrapped around two sterling outings, while Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez have continued to pitch well for four or five innings before unraveling in the later innings. The only pitcher who has really lived up to his slot in the rotation has been Bud Norris, the Orioles’ fifth starter who has pitched to a 4.44 ERA, which is about right on par for a backend-of-the-rotation guy in this day and age.
Hitting
The Orioles are tied for tenth in baseball with 108 runs scored, an average of 4.5 R/GM. Considering Manny Machado has not played yet and neither Adam Jones nor Chris Davis have swung the bat anywhere near how they are expected to, the numbers are pretty decent. Thank you Nelson Cruz and Matt Wieters.
It seems almost laughable to say it, and there will never be a more obvious statement made in one of my posts, but when the Orioles score, they win. Plain and simple. In their last six victories, the Orioles have averaged 7.0 R/G. In their last five losses, the Orioles have averaged 2.6 R/G.
The lack of power on this ball club is eye opening, considering this team hit 426 home runs the last two years and features six regulars with multiple 20+ home run seasons. The weather hasn’t helped as most of the games have been played in less then desirable temperatures, and once the Orioles got out of the elements for a series under the dome in Toronto, they did blast six home runs in three games. Still, the Birds rank 25th in home runs with just 17 and dead last in homers at home with five – two stats nobody in baseball would have expected through the season’s first month.
Defense
The Orioles need to play good defense to win ball games. In the last six wins, they have committed zero errors. In fact, they have not recorded an error in any of their 12 wins. That should come as no surprise as this was the best fielding team in the history of baseball in 2013.
It should also come as no surprise that the team has slipped defensively in their last five losses. While the Orioles as a whole have played some pretty solid defense to this point, it is clear that the club has been hurt by Machado spending the beginning of 2014 on the DL and J.J. Hardy having missed several games with back and hamstring issues.
The Orioles committed at least one error in all five losses over the last two weeks, totaling seven errors overall in those games. Adding insult to injury, the Orioles are 0-7 this season in games in which they commit an error. Of the 10 errors committed by the Orioles on the season, seven have come from Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, and Steve Lombardozzi, with six of those seven coming from the SS/3B positions. Schoop and Flaherty have combined for a fielding percentage of .921 at third base this season, 52 points below that of Manny Machado in 2013.
What Does it all Mean?
Right now, the Orioles are a team that is treading water, waiting for the return of Machado and now, the recently injured Chris Davis. They have not had their full lineup on the field at any point this season, and it has shown in the inconsistencies of the offense.
This is a team that has scored four runs or fewer in 14 of 24 games, a number that does not often bode well for winning ball games. It is also a team that has recorded just eight quality starts, besting only Minnesota and Arizona, who have seven apiece.
The bottom line is this: Machado and Davis will be back. The weather will warm up, and balls will be flying out of Camden Yards with regularity in the very near future. This lineup just has too much of a track record to stay at their current pace.
The pitching should get better, though we’ve all heard that before. Despite the numbers from Jimenez, his last two starts have been promising as he looks to put another disastrous April in his rearview, while Chen has pitched into the seventh inning in two of his last three starts.
That said, the pitching absolutely has to get better. Tillman and Jimenez will have a leash a mile long, but after that, nobody is safe. Kevin Gausman is waiting for his shot, and when he gets it, don’t expect him to let it go easily. Johan Santana and Dylan Bundy are about ready to go on rehab assignments in the next couple of weeks, with an early June return to the majors not out of the question for either of them. This is a team that is built to win now, and neither Buck Showalter nor Dan Duquette will allow this club to go much further with the current crop of pitchers if things don’t improve in a hurry. You can bet on that.
Looking Ahead
As rain is hammering down on the East Coast this week, the Orioles have already postponed the first game of their two-game set with Pittsburgh. With the forecast looking worse for game two, expect a doubleheader to be played on Thursday as both teams have a scheduled day off. Machado will be activated for the Pirates series, a welcomed addition to the field and the lineup. After Pittsburgh, the Orioles will begin a six-game road trip to Minnesota and Tampa Bay before returning home May 9th to play the Astros.
Coming Soon
As April is pretty much in the books, we’ll do our first month O’beservations, preview the month of May, and look at where the team stands going forward. Stay tuned.
