We know fans are growing impatient, but what about Buck?

Orioles manager Buck Showalter has become a beloved figure in the city of Baltimore over the past few years. In a little less than 3.5 seasons as the skipper of the Birds, he’s gone 281-262 while leading the franchise to a playoff berth in 2012. There’s no doubt that he’s changed the culture of the team on the field and done an outstanding job for the O’s.

The average Orioles fan might even believe that after signing a contract extension almost a year ago that keeps him in Baltimore through the 2018 season, the love and affection for Showalter could only grow over the next five years. Showalter, along with executive vice president Dan Duquette, signed that extension nearly a year ago following the team’s first postseason appearance in 14 seasons. So would you believe me if I told you that a year from NOW, the Orioles could find themselves looking for a new manager?

This is all just speculation and perhaps even hyperbole on my part, so don’t begin casting stones in my direction and raising your pitchforks. I have been thinking about this possibility ever since I saw how little the organization has done this offseason to improve the team. It was even brought up by a local Baltimore radio show the other morning, further enhancing my feeling that Buck Showalter could quickly grow tired of what he is seeing happen, or not happen, with the Orioles.

This coming season has become increasingly critical for the Orioles – not only because of the development of young players like Kevin Gausman, Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop – but also because it could define where the organization heads for the next 3-5 years and beyond. After a pair of winning seasons, one of which included a playoff berth, the O’s could be slipping the wrong way on the competitive ladder. Is that something the 57-year-old Showalter wants to stick around to see? If history is any indication, it’s not.

Looking back at Showalter’s managerial past, it was somewhat puzzling to see him even sign an extension that would keep him with a team for an additional six years. He will be entering his fourth full season in Baltimore in 2014, which matches his longest stay in any one spot. He managed the Yankees for four full seasons from 1992-95 (minus some lost games due to the strike). New York would then go on to bigger and better things under the legendary Joe Torre, winning four out of the next five World Series. Showalter then took over the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons from 1998-2000. A year after his departure, the D’backs would knock off the Yankees in the epic 2001 Fall Classic. Showalter’s tenure in Texas as skipper of the Rangers was not quite as successful as his previous two, but he still turned the organization in the right direction. Texas has made the playoffs three times in the seven years since Showalter left, losing twice in the World Series.

Things haven’t looked all that great from a fan’s perspective this offseason for the Birds, but can you imagine how it’s appeared for Showalter? Sure, he’s made the rounds and said the right things publicly, but I can only imagine what’s going through his head as the team heads into the season. Pitchers and catchers are due to report to Sarasota in a little over a month, and on paper, Showalter’s “nuggets” are significantly diminished heading into the long grind of the season. The skipper might be forced to perform one of his greatest managerial works yet if he wants to keep the momentum rolling from the last two seasons. The margin for error is creeping to razor-thin status for this team, and the further things go in that direction, the harder it will be to stop it.

There are plenty of things that have and haven’t happened that could potentially have Showalter scratching his head as he enters a new year. He no longer has his closer, enters the year without an established second baseman or left fielder and still does not have an established rotation of proven arms that can eat innings on a consistent basis. All of these things have been well-documented since the end of last season. There’s also no doubt that none of the offseason woes can be blamed on Showalter. He’s not calling all of the shots in terms of personnel decisions, though he surely has some say in the matters. Some of the finger pointing has gone towards Duquette. He is after all, the man who signed the same type of extension along with Showalter last year vowing to lead this team in decisions to build a winner. Much of the blame though, is going even higher than Duquette. It’s going to the highest levels of the warehouse building and to a culture and an environment that has seemed to be entrenched in the organization since it moved to Camden Yards. It’s not hard to put yourself in the shoes of Showalter and find reasons as to why you may not be as happy as you were, even just a year ago. It’s in fact, easy from this outsider’s perspective to look at a laundry list of reasons that go much higher than on the field or even in the baseball operations department as to why Showalter might wonder off into the sunset in a year’s time.

I’d love to see Buck Showalter honor his contract and stay in Baltimore through the 2018 season. I’d love it if he was able to keep the team competitive and in contention for a playoff spot during his entire tenure, like he’s done the last two years. I also wouldn’t blame him if he sees something from the inside and decides to bail. Perhaps he knows what’s ahead for this team, and perhaps he doesn’t like what he sees. It wouldn’t surprise me either way, no matter how the whole situation plays out. Perhaps, it shouldn’t surprise you either.