This time a year ago the Baltimore Orioles were in the midst of their best season in recent memory, one that resulted in a trip to the postseason for the first time since 1997. The Birds finished higher than fifth in the American League East for the first time since 2007 and with the team’s largest regular season win total since the ’97 squad.
In many ways the 2012 Orioles were an improbable group. Trying to come up with a logical explanation as to how they were 29-9 in one-run games and 16-2 in extra-inning affairs left fans and pundits alike muttering the term “Orioles Magic” and scratching their heads.
Remember the 17-inning game in Fenway Park where Chris Davis picked up the victory as a pitcher after tossing two scoreless innings and striking two Red Sox hitters (one of them being Adrian Gonzalez) while Davis himself went 0-8 at the plate and struck out five times? It was that kind of year. Don’t think too hard, just go with the flow and enjoy it.
While last year’s Birds had an actual record of 93-69, their Pythagorean record, which is an estimate of wins based on a team’s runs scored and runs allowed, says they should have been 82-80. In 2012 the Orioles put 712 runs on the board and surrendered 705, bringing us to the +7 run differential that was so often pointed out and used in the argument that perhaps last season’s team was more lucky than good. Of course in Birdland how Buck’s guys made the playoffs wasn’t of utmost importance; that they did is what mattered most.
Fast forward to 2013 and at present time the Baltimore Orioles are 79-70. Granted there are obviously 13 games remaining in the season, but as I was looking around Baseball Reference I noticed that the Orioles have scored 696 runs while allowing 650, to generate a Pythagorean record of….wait for it….79-70.
How about that? After 149 games the Orioles are right where they should be, based on the not-so-popular-in-Baltimore run differential-based equation.
In looking back at games in the rear view mirror moments come to mind that, if gone for the Birds instead of against them, would seemingly have the current win total around 90 instead of the actual amount.
Things that went right for the Orioles in 2012 have, painfully at times, gone the way of the opposing team in 2013 (like the 16-28 mark in one-run games). Balls hit hard have been recorded as outs. Saves easily converted last season have been a struggle this time around. Pitches which missed the sweet spot of the bat by an inch or two a year ago don’t have the same movement now, contributing to the major league-high 190 home runs the staff has allowed.
In the same way it feels like the Orioles should have a better record than they do at the moment it also feels as though 79-70 is about right, all things considered.
Last year the Orioles made the postseason largely defying odds along the way. Based on ESPN’s calculations, Baltimore had the largest positive differential between their actual and expected winning percentage of 2012’s playoff teams at +.069 (.574 actual, .505 expected). The Cincinnati Reds were next at +.035 (.599 vs. .564).
The 2013 version of the Baltimore Orioles have a little work to do, currently 2.5 games back in the wildcard standings, but a playoff berth is certainly within reach. The method would be different, but the end result potentially the same. And like a year ago, it won’t matter how it happens as long as it does.
