Should O’s Consider Trading Vets Like Mullins & Mountcastle at Deadline?

The MLB trade deadline is less than a week away and the Orioles figure to be very active. How they approach this deadline will be interesting.

Since the Kyle Bradish injury, the Orioles are 15-16. The back of the rotation has not been good, and even the offense has struggled this month, with the team OPS barely over 700.

This team is making the playoffs; it is just a matter of how they make it (i.e., as division winner or wild card). So, the goal should be to strengthen the team but also make sure what you get has October in mind. Obtaining a better 5^th starter than Albert Suarez, for example, isn’t really helping in the playoffs, so the team should not be putting resources into that. They should instead be put into guys who can start or pitch in high-leverage relief situations in October. Anything less than that isn’t worth acquiring.

The Orioles can go in a lot of different ways over the next week but for me, I am hoping they do both some buying and selling. It has been reported in recent days that the O’s are listening to offers for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins.

From the @JeffPassan article on the #Orioles

It really makes sense to move some of these vet bats. What you get back remains to be seen but creating room for more talented players while addressing areas of need just makes sense. @EutawStReport pic.twitter.com/BRGgjPkhm1

— rob (@rshields97) July 23, 2024

Assuming Jorge Mateo’s avoided severe injury after his collision with Gunnar Henderson last night (X-Rays were negative), I would also think they will listen on either Mateo or Ramon Urias. I personally hope all three are traded. The Orioles are in a unique position because they have so much prospect depth and talent that they can afford to trade middling MLB talent for other needs.

I have seen people say, “well those moves just don’t happen,” or “we can’t upset the chemistry of the team.” First of all, I don’t think trading those guys will upset the chemistry. This team is tight-knit enough, with guys who have come up together, to keep right on chugging along even if a friend or two is traded.

Now, it’s true: contenders do not usually trade MLB pieces away, but I think that we will start to see more and more of that in the future. With the third wild card spot, there will always be a ton of teams “in it.” Teams are going to have to get creative when there are so few true “sellers” compared to years past.

Combine that with the O’s obvious pitching needs and their desire and ability to bring up stud prospects and this is another way for the O’s to acquire some help without trading any of their big four (Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Heston Kjerstad).

Speaking of those guys, there has been a lot of chatter surrounding Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Let me preface what I am going to say by saying I think Skubal is on the short list for best pitchers in the sport. He is an elite talent, and this type of year has been building for him. The problem with Skubal, other than the price tag, is that he has never thrown 150 innings in any season (he came close one season) and has had two major arm surgeries, with the most recent one being mid-August of 2022. He should throw more than 150 innings this year, but how does the arm hold up? How well will he be pitching when he gets at or near 200 IP and beyond?

He has 2+ years of service time left which means, if things go well, you have him for three postseason runs. That would be great except he comes with a boatload of risk because of his mechanics and injury history, and he will cost, in all likelihood, two top 20 prospects plus more.

Let’s be clear about something: these trades just don’t normally happen either. Juan Soto fetched a package like this going from Washington to San Diego, but Soto had been worth over 20 fWAR (Skubal is currently half of that) by the time he was traded and, as a hitter, was more of a sure thing. And even with that, that Soto deal looks terrible for the Padres, so it’s not really a selling point for Detroit. Chris Sale also fetched a package like this, but Sale had thrown a lot more innings, was in Cy Young contention for multiple seasons and had a little more service time left.

There is a reason we don’t see trades like this. Elite players at this level rarely get traded with this much service time left and teams don’t want to give up high-level, high surplus-value young talent. The best commodity in pro sports is elite talent producing at a high level while making little money. I don’t care if you are big market or small market, you want those guys (see the Yankees not wanting to trade Dominguez or Jones – laughable, by the way – as an example of that).

So, for me, I am not trading for Skubal or Chicago’s Garrett Crochet (for similar reasons to Skubal, but he’s even more risky and I don’t even know what role he would have in October) unless you can get them for far less than we currently expect.

With that said, the O’s certainly need to make moves. They need to make every prospect, outside of those top four, available for the pitching they need. (I am not saying those top four are untouchable; it’s just that I don’t see anything on the market that would cause me to trade any of them.  If things change on the market, that thought could change with it.)

There are some starters out there that won’t cost a ton to acquire who would represent solid upgrades. Chicago’s Erick Fedde is probably at the top of that list. While he has kind of come out of nowhere, he is signed cheaply for next year and based on both peripheral stats and Statcast numbers, doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Now, you still have to worry about him turning into a pumpkin, but no data we have suggests that’s likely.

Right now, it doesn’t appear that the Rangers will sell, so that leaves guys like LAA’s Tyler Anderson (his FIP is mid-4s but he has good stuff), Tampa’s Zach Eflin, Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi, Detroit’s Jack Flaherty and Colorado’s Cal Quantrill. It is not an overly exciting group but there are some guys that could be helpful.  I also have my eyes on LAA’s Reid Detmers and Miami’s Jesus Luzardo.

Detmers is a guy with big upside and a lot of service time left. He is clearly not happy with how the Angels are handling him (who can blame him?) and he could be a good buy-low guy. I am not saying he puts you over the top in October, but as a secondary guy who is more of a long-term option, I would be all over that.

Luzardo is similar.  He is currently on the IL with a back injury and is slated to be back around mid-to-late August. He is a risk, but also has a big upside and multiple years of control. Like Detmers, I would want him as a second rotation piece long-term, and anything he gives you in ’24 is a bonus.

The reliever market is better. We saw last night how good Miami’s three lefties are, and all could be available. But they aren’t the only ones. Several teams have high-leverage relievers available, and the Orioles need to come out of this deadline with at least two of those guys. You can argue that the bullpen is a bigger need and more important to October success. The O’s have to add to the pen in a big way.

So, for me at least, the ideal deadline would have us trading Mounty, Mullins and Urias/Mateo and adding Fedde, Detmers/Luzardo, two high leverage relievers and keeping our top four prospects. After that, we get Holliday and Mayo up here and let them get their feet wet as much as possible prior to October. It is a big jump from the minors to the majors and its obviously not a guarantee that they will do it, but I feel good about their chances and it’s not like the guys they are replacing are high-end producers.

I would say my trading deadline hopes are a bit ambitious and that’s a lot of roster change in a short period of time, so it’s probably not realistic. The more likely scenario is they add one starter and one reliever, and all the vets stay. While I don’t think that would be a failure (depending on who they acquire), I wouldn’t call it a success either, especially because of the bullpen.

It’s going to be interesting. The O’s are certainly in the driver’s seat even if they take those four prospects off the table. Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Dylan Beavers, Enrique Bradfield Jr, et al are desirable guys. They have some young International players that are also potentially coveted, and they have a lot of of the type pieces that you see traded for rental players, so they have plenty of ammo to get deals done.

Hopefully, this time next week, we will see some big changes and a team on the field that is an even more dangerous World Series contender than they are right now.