Your Baltimore Orioles are the hottest team in baseball. They have won eight games in a row and just capped off a three-game sweep of the Marlins. The O’s are on fire right now and are now 22 games above .500 and just one back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
When a team plays this well, they need to make moves at the deadline to help a playoff push. This is the first time Mike Elias has encountered a deadline as a buyer.
The extra playoff spot and lack of terrible teams has caused a big glob of mediocre teams who still believe they are in it not to be full sellers. Add the fact that the celler dwellers have few good players to offer, and you have a situation here.
So in a deadline where there isn’t an easy fit for the Orioles, who exactly are their prospects that are “untouchable?”
I don’t consider every prospect playing well right now untouchable because that would be very narrow-minded. Yes, the market isn’t looking good. Still, the reality here is that we already have issues getting guys like Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser every day starts, so saying a guy like Dylan Beavers or Max Wagner, who are both towards the bottom half of the top 15 prospects, are untouchable is just wrong.
The Orioles have a deep farm and can put together a package rivaling that of any team in baseball.
But who is really on the trade menu? For the purposes of this exercise, I will consider any player currently on the MLB roster as untouchable.
Let’s get to it.
Untouchables
Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo
Jackson Holliday needs no explanation (though I’ll give a quick one), but the other two might be surprising to some. Holliday is the best prospect in baseball, and he just got called up to Double-A, where he had a hot weekend. He is a supremely talented hitter with elite plate discipline and contact ability, good enough power, and the defense to say he is the team’s next true superstar.
Especially with Shohei Ohtani being a confirmed rental at this point, there’s nothing out there available that would pry the youngster from this organization.
Now, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo: there is some debate there. They find themselves here because they are both close to the majors, and their upsides are too much to give up. Some will probably disagree, but hear me out on this. Kjerstad has been killing it lately in Triple-A, and Mayo just got there and hasn’t missed a beat since beating the cover off the ball in AA.
Mayo and Kjerstad are high-ceiling hitters in Triple-A on the doorsteps of the Majors, and both will be a part of the team moving forward.
Near Untouchable
Samuel Basallo, Joey Ortiz, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson
This category is for the players who could get moved if a couple of teams decided to rebuild. The Brewers and the White Sox control this deadline, and this section of Baby Birds.
If Dylan Cease/Corbin Burnes or more are coming to the Orioles, these are the Prospects that could flip the scales. Basallo is a young catcher hitting very well in the lower minors right now and is only eighteen years old. Joey Ortiz is a guy that deserves to start, but the Orioles just don’t seem to trust him over guys like Westburg and, at the moment, Adam Frazier or Ramon Urias. He is a sick defender crushing Triple-A but can’t get consistent at-bats at the majors.
Povich, McDermott, and Johnson might seem weird to put on this list, but these guys are the highest-upside pitchers in the Orioles system right now, so yes, they may have spots going forward. Again these prospects should only be dealt if they are for someone special, a true needle-mover in October.
Guys We Love Who Don’t Have a Spot
DL Hall, Drew Rom, Connor Norby, Jud Fabian
This section is going to hurt. The Orioles have such a loaded system that good players will inevitably get pushed out. This describes Connor Norby perfectly. There is nothing statistically that Norby is doing to deserve to get traded, but the O’s have no room for him. He is stuck at second base or left field due to a lack of athleticism and arm talent, which makes him blocked.
It would be in the best interest for both Norby and the Orioles to get a trade done so that he can be in the majors somewhere and the Orioles can prosper off of his great year.
Jud Fabian also fits here as well, but not as smoothly. Fabian is only in Double-A, and while he has flashy tools like his speed, fielding, and power, consistency has been a big problem, and he is still about a year away, at the least. Add this to a crowded outfield, which includes Cowser, and maybe Kjerstad, and Fabian is also blocked.
Talking about DL Hall can make a person upset. He has shown some flashes, but he hasn’t been on the mound in forever and is currently down in Sarasota, trying to recapture the velocity that made him so special in the first place. It just seems like a change of scenery is needed for Hall because something weird is going on.
Drew Rom is another guy that could be a solid starter, just not in Baltimore, where the current options are too good, and the rotation is way too crowded.
With That all Said…
That was a lot of words, so what does it all mean? Unless something drastic happens with the White Sox or Brewers, this deadline looks rather unpromising. With no clear fits, the Orioles will have to get creative. They have the prospects to get a good bullpen arm, a solid rotation starter, or whatever else they need. Hall seems like a guy the Warehouse has lost interest in developing, and Norby and Cesar Prieto are both at Triple-A and blocked right now. Rom is also blocked by the current rotation performing well.
Anyone else like Max Wagner, Dylan Beavers, Carter Young, or any other prospect also fits the bill and could be dealt.
So which trades do I think might be likely? That’s a story for next time…
Sorry to leave it on a cliffhanger, but today was about establishing some rules and flags on some hills about where this organization should go.
Prospects are very fickle, so it is possible that Elias could view others as untouchable in this weak deadline, but I am confident the front office won’t just sit on their hands and do nothing.
Come back next time for some mock trades.
