Thursday Thoughts: Predictions for the Rest of the 2016 Season

This is a weekly column that dives into eight random thoughts about the Orioles/MLB. Why eight? It’s a nod to Cal Ripken Jr. of course. That, and doing 2,632 of these would be a little overboard. – A.S.

This week for Thursday Thoughts, we’re going to go through some things I think will happen in the second half of the season. These aren’t hardcore predictions, and none of them should be too shocking, but they are just trends I see happening and possibilities for the way things will play out.

1. I think the Orioles will make a few trades over the next few weeks before the July 31st deadline. I don’t think they will be what most consider “major” deals. I don’t think they will be impactful to the point that the O’s are suddenly considered major contenders.

But I do think the Orioles will go out and get a pair of bullpen arms that help. I don’t think they are getting a starter, because the cost will be too high. I think the O’s will acquire a right-hander and left-hander to slide into the bullpen and shorten the game.

I don’t think it’ll be someone that impacts the team like Andrew Miller did, but I do think it’ll be someone who does more than Gerardo Parra did.

[Related: O’s Should Upgrade Bullpen at the Deadline]

2. I think you will end up seeing Ubaldo Jimenez stay on the team through the end of the season. This may sound disappointing, but I don’t see the O’s being able to justify cutting him loose. That’s not what I think they should do, but I think it’s what they will do. This means the pitching staff and entire roster will continue to be plagued by starting pitching woes.

There really isn’t anyone else they can slide into Jimenez’s place with any confidence. They can try to hide him in the bullpen like they did a few weeks ago, but he really isn’t effective in either role at this point. I did say Jimenez will likely stay on the roster for the rest of the season, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try to trade him in the offseason. I could see a team taking a chance on him for next year considering it’s the final year of his contract.

Can you imagine how attractive a veteran pitcher on a one-year, $13.5-million deal looks to a team desperate for a fifth starter? Even if it is Jimenez, that’s something a number of teams would jump on.

3. There are two prime candidates for regression on this team and I don’t want to talk about either, but I will.

GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld

Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado are bound to fall back a bit. Trumbo is likely to fall off a steeper cliff, and I can’t wait for all the hot takes about how it’s related to the fact that he took part in the Home Run Derby. That’s not the reason. Simply put, Trumbo has had a ridiculous first half and he’s bound to fall back to some career averages over the second half. It won’t be the end of the world. They also aren’t going to trade him.

Machado is in the same boat (with falling back to career averages, he’s obviously not getting traded either). Machado has played at an MVP level in the first half, and while there’s no doubt he can continue to produce, but his ridiculous first half will look better on paper than his second half.

4. On the flip side of regression, there are two players who I think can keep up their torrid first half and carry it through to the rest of the season.

Jonathan Schoop and Brad Brach will cap their career years by running straight through September with great numbers. Schoop is exciting, because as Orioles fans, we’ve all been waiting for this. His emergence as a possible legit superstar that no one has heard of is about the most exciting thing outside of Machado on this team. Watching him hit the cover off the ball is a joy.

GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld

With Brach, many think he can’t possibly be as good as he was in the first half, but I say why not? This may be the only season Brach puts up these types of numbers, and he’ll be able to remember it as the year he made an All-Star team (despite not playing in the game). There’s no doubt that Brach has been the key to the bullpen (outside of Zach Britton). Darren O’Day’s injury has made Brach even more important, but even if O’Day were around right now, Brach’s contributions would be staggering.

He’s been the best player on the team that no one outside of Baltimore knows about. I think it’ll continue.

5. Speaking of Darren O’Day, he’s the most important piece to the second half of the season. The Orioles have a great bullpen without him, but can you imagine it with him? His impending return from injury is going to be a storyline, and until he’s back, the O’s will continue to thrive. But once he’s back, watch out. He’s going to have a rested arm and a clear goal. O’Day has the chance to make a large impact on this team. If the O’s add a few pieces to that pen along with O’Day’s return, it will go a long way to shortening games and helping the rotation.

GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld

6. Chris Davis has been fine this year, but he’s going to have a powerful second half. More specifically, he’s going to have a torrid August. Once the calendar flips to the eighth month, Davis is going to start hitting a ton of homers. I’d guess Davis hits more than ten bombs and pushes the 12-13 mark during the month.

Much of the praise on Davis this year hasn’t been directed at his bat, but at his glove. He’s been outstanding at first base and deserves a Gold Glove for his efforts. It’s something he takes pride in. Now, it’s time for the bat to show up too.

As I said, he’s been fine so far this year, but nothing like he’s capable of being. Watch for the hot, sticky summer months to turn his swing into a launch pad for the baseball.

7. Many fans want Dylan Bundy in the rotation yesterday. I think that’s going to happen, but not until September. Earlier this year, I didn’t think Bundy would be a starter at all this year, but it’s obvious that with the issues in the O’s rotation, they need help. I’d be surprised if the O’s threw Bundy in this early because they haven’t had him build up his innings enough quite yet.

But by September, when the O’s are able to have some minor league call-ups on the roster as backup, I think you’ll see him make a few starts. Those starts may not be great either, but fans mostly won’t care. They just want to see Bundy live up to his potential and take the ball.

I love the way Bundy is trending, though. His performance last week, especially in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, was thrilling. More of that, with less of the stress, would be fantastic.

8. Before the season, I thought the O’s were a fourth place team. They’ve shocked me and just about everyone else. But I don’t think they can maintain this pace and win the division. The AL East is not very good in the sense that there are three very flawed teams vying for the top spot.

In the end, I think the O’s are making the playoffs, but not as division champs. In my eyes, the O’s are hosting this year’s Wild Card game at Camden Yards. I think Boston ends up winning the AL East. It would make sense, after the O’s won it two years ago and the Blue Jays took the crown last year.

Maybe the O’s will host Toronto, maybe they’ll host someone else. I’ll take my chances with Chris Tillman or Kevin Gausman (or a combination of both) in a one-game playoff against any team. It’ll be exciting.