Happy Opening Day! Each year, this is a special day full of tradition and hope. I’m excited to be a fan of the Orioles entering this season and a fan of baseball in general. I’m also grateful for all of the readers of this weekly blog that rambles aimlessly about a team I’ve pulled for my entire life and a game that will never leave me. I want to take this space to remind each of you that I’ll be writing here each Thursday, but I’m also honored to have been asked to write guest blogs over at MASNSports.com for a sixth season. I’ll be contributing there each Monday during the season, so be sure to check that out as well.

The last week or so has been busy in Birdland. There is a lot happening on and off the field, but truthfully, the only thing people care about today is the fact that the games count. Part of the beauty of baseball and the start of the season is that no one knows what’s going to happen. No one knew in 2012 that the Orioles would be playoff bound. No one expected a division title in 2014. This season, no one expects the Orioles to be in contention for a World Series. But crazier things have happened. It’s the hope that everyone can have when the record is 0-0 that makes the day and time of year so special.

ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian, one of my favorite baseball analysts (and for that matter, people) in the world, always says baseball is a great game because it’s impossible to predict. And I agree with that. There’s a reason that a Twitter account called “You Can’t Predict Baseball” exists. So much of what you’ll read in the rest of this week’s blog will be wrong. Last week, I went over some bold(ish) predictions about the Orioles. That’s what this blog is about, but it’s also about baseball in general. So this week, I’m going to give a brief prediction on each of the 30 teams, listed in the order where they will (might) finish in the standings. Be sure to read each one and educate yourself on the other teams out there, but also remember that these predictions are subject to be completely wrong, because baseball is amazing like that.

No one knows what will happen.

 

NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers – The defending NL champions should repeat as division champs for a sixth straight season, but it won’t be easy. Challenges will come from both the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who each made the postseason last year. The Dodgers are still the powerhouse, though, and should be able to withstand the losses of Justin Turner (temporary – wrist) and Yu Darvish (permanent – free agency).

Arizona Diamondbacks – After a somewhat surprising first year under manager Torey Lovullo, the D-backs should be right back in the mix for a postseason spot this season. They lost slugger J.D. Martinez to free agency, but should have enough in the lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb. Steven Souza Jr. will start the year on the DL after coming over in a trade with the Rays, but Arizona has a lot to play for in a competitive division this year.

Colorado Rockies – Bud Black’s purple-clad Rockies squad should once again be able to slug the ball all over the place this season, but questions remain about their pitching staff. It’s a common theme in Colorado, where the ball flies. The Rockies have some young talent to mix with established bats like Nolan Arenado. They could easily be in the mix in this division if things break the right way, and if young starters like Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland take steps to be productive rotation stalwarts.

San Francisco Giants – The Giants were super active this offseason in adding veteran talent to their roster, but injuries have already bitten them badly this spring. Starters Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija will each be on the shelf to start the year, as will closer Mark Melancon. Even the additions of Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria and Austin Jackson may not be enough to help this slowly sinking ship. It’s almost as if the Giants pushed all their chips to the middle of the table and are just waiting for a miracle river card. They’ll have a lot of hurdles to climb if they want to be competitive this season.

San Diego Padres – The Friars made a huge splash in this slow-moving offseason by signing Eric Hosmer to be the new face of the franchise. San Diego has plenty of young talent, and should actually be better than they have in the last few seasons. It’s an ultra competitive division, though, and Hosmer can only do so much. I’m excited to watch the development of outfielder Manuel Margot, but pitching remains a big issue on this team. There simply isn’t enough of it to be competitive.

 

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs – I feel like the Cubs are somehow underrated entering this season. Everyone is talking about the Dodgers and Nationals, but the Cubs to me are still among the best in the NL. Add Yu Darvish to a rotation that lost Jake Arrieta and a lineup that remains as potent as ever, and you’ve got a recipe for success. The Cubbies battled the Brewers all season last year for the division, eventually prevailing. I think there was some World Series hangover going on there. Expect Chicago to bounce back in a big way this year.

St. Louis Cardinals – It’s hard to believe the Cardinals have missed the postseason each of the last two years, but it’s true. Last year’s third-place finish was their worst since 2008, and the team responded by adding Marcell Ozuna in a trade with the Marlins. I wouldn’t expect the fans in St. Louis to put up with much more mediocrity from Mike Matheny’s squad, which is why I think they get one of the two Wild Card spots in the NL this season. Expect them to push the Cubs in this division, led by Cy Young candidate Carlos Martinez and a slew of young pitching talent.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers were right in it last year until fading and finishing a game out of the playoffs. They appear to be a potential playoff team, but something also appears to be missing. The Brew Crew also went out and made a deal this winter, grabbing Christian Yelich from the Marlins. They feel like they are on the verge, but I’m not 100% sure they have enough pitching to get the job done. This team was a perfect candidate to go out and acquire Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to help out, and didn’t do it. I feel like that will bite them in the end.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are in a weird transitional phase that should at least make them somewhat interesting this year. They traded away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but also traded for Corey Dickerson. It’s almost as if they know they won’t be in it this year, but don’t want to tell their fans that. There are certainly pieces that make them interesting, including outfielders Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. They have to rely on the development of former first-round pick Jameson Taillon among others to have any chance of being in the mix this year.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds are another team that enters the season with some interesting pieces, but no real chance. Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto make for some excitement in the lineup, but there isn’t nearly enough pitching to handle the rest of this division. I am excited to see young talent within the organization like Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker eventually get a shot to develop in the big leagues.

 

NL EAST

Washington Nationals – It may seem boring, but the Nationals seem to be in this spot every year. They’ve won the NL East three of the last four years and still have an absolutely stacked roster. There’s a lot of pressure on this team though, because they’ve still yet to win a playoff series. The rotation continues to be anchored by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and the lineup will continue to mash with Bryce Harper right in the middle. But impending free agency for Harper will act like a ticking clock for this franchise, similar to that of Manny Machado in Baltimore. The Nats should win the division again this year, but beyond that, who knows.

Philadelphia Phillies – Part of the reason the clock is ticking on the Nationals is because of teams like the Phillies. This squad is just like Alexander Hamilton – young, scrappy and hungry. There are so many budding stars on this roster and I think they are going to carry that enthusiasm and momentum to a Wild Card berth this year. It could be surprising to some, but the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery should have this team and the city of Philadelphia energized all summer long. Aaron Nola is another one to watch in the rotation, which should be led by the offseason acquisition of Jake Arrieta, who still has something to prove.

Atlanta Braves – Count the Braves among those who will continue to put mounting pressure on the Nationals over the next few seasons. This team is also young and getting better. They have the budding farm system to go with it and I think they have a great shot to take a productive 2018 season and launch themselves into contention by next year. Everyone will be anticipating the arrival of Ronald Acuna from the minors after the first few weeks of the season, but there are plenty of other young developing stars already on the roster, including former first-round pick Dansby Swanson. After a few years of being irrelevant, Atlanta should be a team to watch very soon.

New York Mets – I’m putting the Mets in a similar category as I do the Giants. They are a team full of veterans that don’t have a lot of time to prove it. The Mets also seem to have a ton of injury concerns, starting with their veteran third baseman David Wright. The rotation will have to stay healthy, and if it does they can be very good. I’m also constantly concerned about the health of players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez. There definitely are bright spots to look toward, the biggest being outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. To me, the Mets are among the biggest mysteries in baseball, and I’m just putting a bit more faith in the youth in this division.

Miami Marlins – Everyone knows the Marlins are going to stink this year, but something tells me they won’t be as bad as everyone thinks. There are some bright spots on this roster, but they are still bound for a lot of losing. The biggest questions are in the rotation, but the lineup should be able to produce a bit despite departures of the entire starting outfield (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna) and second baseman-turned-center fielder Dee Gordon. Lewis Brinson should be a joy to watch develop and Justin Bour has a chance to slug the ball out of the park at any moment. There will be a lot of losing, but also some fun moments for this squad this season.

 

AL WEST

Houston Astros – There’s not much else to say when it comes to the Astros. They’re the defending champions and remain loaded. They added Gerrit Cole to their rotation and still have Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel to anchor it. They are very good, #analysis. There definitely is something to be said about World Series hangover, however. There’s no question in my mind they should win their division, but don’t be surprised if there are rough patches. I also don’t expect them to repeat as champions.

Texas Rangers – Every time I count the Rangers out and dead, they come back to bite me. I’m going to give them a little credit this year and put them in the mix for a Wild Card spot. I think they’ll come up short, but it won’t be for a lack of effort. They have a lineup that can run with the best of them, headlined by budding star Joey Gallo. Cole Hamels will have to return to form as the “old” version of himself if they want to have a chance, and the bullpen will have to overperform a bit, but something tells me Texas will be a bit of a force this season.

Los Angeles Angels – Many are picking the Angels to be in the mix for a Wild Card spot this year, and I don’t fully disagree with them. I just have them coming up short. There’s no doubt they improved their lineup with the acquisitions of Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart, and they obviously still have Mike Trout. The biggest issue remains their pitching staff, where a lot will be expected of phenom Shohei Ohtani. If the Japanese import can handle the pressure of being in a big league rotation while also playing some DH, perhaps they can impress. I just think that’s going to be a lot to handle for the youngster.

Seattle Mariners – Every year I want to fall in love with what the Mariners are doing and every year they tend to have things go terribly wrong. This season it’s already started with a slew of injuries that have bitten them. They’ve lost David Phelps from their bullpen and have had a bunch of scares in their rotation. I’m interested to see how Dee Gordon transitions from second base to center field after being brought in from the Marlins, and the lineup can obviously still rake with the likes of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager in the middle. There is just so much working against them in terms of an aging Felix Hernandez and not much support outside of James Paxton in the rotation.

Oakland Athletics – The A’s are another team trying to get younger and develop players, and probably won’t have enough firepower to be in the mix this season. They could surprise a bit, but there’s a lack of pitching in both the rotation and bullpen there. The offense should be powered by Khris Davis once again, but he won’t have a ton of support behind him. The average fan won’t think much about the A’s this year, and there’s probably a good reason for that.

 

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians – I don’t know that there’s a greater lock to win their division than the Indians this season. Perhaps it’s the Astros, but even they could falter with some hangover effect from last year. The Tribe is loaded once again this season with a dynamic lineup and stellar rotation. They also have a lot of pressure on them, because many of their key pieces could be departing after this year. Francisco Lindor is an MVP candidate and there’s power in the middle of the lineup with Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez and Yonder Alonso. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco should lead the way for a rotation that may be the best in baseball. This is an extremely dangerous team from top to bottom.

Minnesota Twins – The Twins are that team that made the playoffs last year that you forgot made the playoffs last year. And they’ll be in the mix again this season, too. They added to their rotation with Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn and bolstered their lineup a bit with Logan Morrison. Byron Buxton is primed for a breakout and the lineup should be able to produce enough. The biggest question remains pitching, especially in the bullpen. Fernando Rodney is slated to close for them, which should be an adventure. They also lost Ervin Santana for a chunk of the season to injury and will have to deal with the suspension to shortstop Jorge Polanco. Count the Twins in the mix, but there will be hurdles.

Chicago White Sox – Watch out for yet another young team on the rise. The White Sox have loaded up with developing talent and seem primed to scare some people this year. The rotation shouldn’t be awful, led by James Shields and youngster Lucas Giolito. The lineup should have some pop with Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu, as well as former first-round talent Tim Anderson. There’s no real reason the Sox couldn’t surprise and make a big leap this year, but it could also be a year too early. Either way, they are on the rise.

Kansas City Royals – The Royals are stuck in “no man’s land” after a few years of extremely competitive teams (capped by their World Series championship in 2015). They lost Eric Hosmer to the Padres, but retained Mike Moustakas. They also brought in Jon Jay and Lucas Duda, but none of what they did this offseason seemed to move the needle from what was a very mediocre third-place finish last year. Catcher Salvador Perez will also start the year on the DL after a freak accident this week involving luggage. It’s a bad omen for what could be kind of a bad team this year.

Detroit Tigers – If the Royals end up being bad this season, it’ll still be nothing compared to the Tigers, who should end up being awful. This all started last year when they traded away Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez, beginning a process of rebuilding. Miguel Cabrera is still leading the way, but there isn’t much else in the Motor City to support him. It’s all about resetting and starting anew for this franchise, which moved on from Brad Ausmus and brought in former Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire to manager the club.

 

AL EAST

Boston Red Sox – It’s going to be a battle between the Red Sox and Yankees for the AL East this season, but count me in what I think is the minority in believing Boston comes out on top. They are, after all, the defending division champions. They also added to their anemic power offense by signing J.D. Martinez. They also still have numerous weapons like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts that are all young improving players. The rotation remains a bear, led by Chris Sale and David Price, who should bounce back from a down year. I expect the Sox to make it three straight division titles, and I expect first-year manager Alex Cora to mostly stay out of the way as they do it.

New York Yankees – There is all the hype surrounding the Yankees, and that’s to be expected with the most popular team in the largest media market. They’re going to be good, there’s no doubt. Good enough for a Wild Card spot in my mind. But I don’t think we are going to see Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combine for 100+ homers like everyone thinks. I also don’t like their rotation enough to push them into first place. There’s no doubt Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius will be great and there’s also no doubt losing Greg Bird to an injury hurts them. There’s also something about the pressure this team is facing. They also have a first-year manager in Aaron Boone, who comes right out of the broadcast booth to take over for Joe Girardi. You’re going to be tired of hearing about the Yankees this year. Judge and Stanton will be plastered all over your TV. Just remember that there are weaknesses on this roster, to go with all of the strengths.

Baltimore Orioles – Call it a hunch, call it blind optimism or call it straight up homerism. I’m picking the Orioles to make the playoffs. Something about the way this franchise has operated over the past month or so has me believing they can carry it into the season and be good enough. They aren’t a perfect roster by any stretch, but they have enough offense and now enough pitching, following additions of Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb, to get themselves to the postseason. I fully expect Manny Machado to have an MVP-caliber season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Colby Rasmus has a great season in support of this offense. They will obviously need Chris Davis and eventually Mark Trumbo to have better seasons than they did last year. There’s a lot to like this season, and I think O’s fans will be able to enjoy it going into October.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are going to be a pesky team that is in the mix this season. They are always a pesky team. They’ve got pop in the lineup, even without Jose Bautista around anymore. They’ve also got a promising enough rotation with Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and a guy who I think could break out in Aaron Sanchez. We’ll have to see if someone like Troy Tulowitzki can be healthy at some point this season and contribute for them, but regardless they should be good enough to be pesky. Even if they are down a bit this year, they have reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette on the way in the coming years.

Tampa Bay Rays – The tradition of Florida baseball tanking will be alive in Miami as well as St. Petersburg this year. The Rays will have plenty of holes this year, most notably in the rotation. Chris Archer remains, but the departures of Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi leave a wide gap for him to close. The offense will rely on a mix of Kevin Kiermaier, Carlos Gomez, Wilson Ramos and C.J. Cron to get the job done. That doesn’t give me a ton of confidence that they can do much. I’m interested to see if Christian Arroyo (acquired from San Francisco in the Evan Longoria deal) can come up to the big leagues and provide any spark. Regardless, the Rays shouldn’t provide much resistance to the rest of the division this season.

 

Well, those are my predictions. Let’s hear yours (and why I’m so wrong) below.