This is a weekly column that dives into some random thoughts about the Orioles/MLB. I used to do eight as a nod to Cal Ripken Jr. As of last year, I cut it down to four or five, so consider it the Earl Weaver–Brooks Robinson era of Thursday Thoughts. – A.S.
With just a week to go before the 2018 season gets underway, it’s time for me to go out on a ledge (well, not too far) and make some bold(ish) predictions for the campaign. These are a few ideas of how the season might play out for the Orioles, and they are based on basically nothing except for my gut. They aren’t too crazy, but they also may not be things you are thinking about.
1. Fresh off a stellar rookie season, Trey Mancini struggles at the plate, but improves his defense in left field. Mancini obviously was a terror at the plate in 2017, hitting .293/.338/.488 with 24 homers and 26 doubles. He was third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. There’s no question his breakout gave the O’s something to look forward to each day. But what I was perhaps most impressed with last year was how comfortable Mancini looked in left field. Buck Showalter regularly raved about the way Mancini played the field, and even though the defensive metrics don’t really back it up, he at least gained some confidence out there. My guess would be that he comes back to Earth a bit with his bat this season, but rounds himself into a more complete player.
2. Speaking of the outfield, I think Anthony Santander sticks on the big-league club all year. I know he only requires staying on the roster for 44 days in order to shed his Rule 5 status, but there’s something that tells me he’ll just end up being part of the rotation of players that ends up playing some right field and even some DH. The 23-year-old was injured most of last year, and didn’t get his chance to show his skills. No one is going to try to tell you he’s going to light the world on fire and take over the starting right field spot. He is, after all, another Rule 5 selection. These guys are never world beaters. But he’s had an incredibly productive spring training and is a switch-hitter, which would help to break up a mostly right-handed lineup. Many believe Santander’s time on the big-league roster will be limited and that Austin Hays will be able to take his spot once the Rule 5 status is cleared up. But Hays dealt with a sore shoulder this spring and had his chances of making the roster derailed. It may be that he needs more time in the minors anyway, and that’s the chance Santander could take advantage of.
3. I appreciate that the Orioles wanted to give him a shot, but Chris Tillman won’t make more than 20 starts this season. Something just doesn’t smell right when it comes to Tillman, and it hasn’t for about 18 months. Ever since his shoulder injury, Tillman has been off. The fact that he’s only going to be relied on as the team’s fifth starter following the signing of Alex Cobb is a relief. This isn’t something I’m hoping will happen, obviously. I want Tillman to return to his form of 2013 and 2014, when he posted back to back seasons of more than 30 starts and over 200 innings. Something tells me Tillman will either be injury-prone or ineffective again this season, and force his way into the bullpen. Mike Wright Jr. or Miguel Castro will likely have to pick up the slack in the rotation at some point.
4. Speaking of pitching, something tells me the duo of Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman will be outpitched by newcomers Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb. Everyone is counting so much on Bundy and Gausman this season, and I want to believe they will both make a big leap. But there’s a lot of pressure on both their shoulders to make such a jump, and it’s not a thing that’s easy to do. We’ve heard so much over the years about “grow the arms, buy the bats.” But sometimes the arms that you buy can work out, too. I like that the Orioles went out and got Cashner and Cobb to solidify this rotation, and I think those moves will pay off in a big way. Neither of them is going out and winning the Cy Young, but for the cost, they were both well worth it. If these four guys can all pull on the same rope, the O’s can actually get things done this season and be competitive. I just have a feeling it will be the veterans leading the way for the young guys.
5. Virtually everyone wanted to see the Orioles make a blockbuster deal and trade away their cornerstone in Manny Machado about two months ago. Virtually everyone also believes that the O’s will still make a deal by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Except in my eyes, Manny Machado is not going to be traded away.
I keep hearing that it’s a certainty from national media types, but something tells me the Orioles are going to be too “mediocre” to do it. They could even very well be right in the mix in mid-July for a wild card spot. What would possess the team to trade away its most talented player, perhaps in franchise history, when it is on the verge of potentially making a run at the playoffs. Say what you want about extending the window or re-stocking the farm system, if the O’s are in the hunt, there’s no way they are making themselves worse on the field.
Machado is most assuredly walking away from the team at the end of the season, and everyone would like to see the O’s get something in return for him. But I think that ship has sailed. The only way it could happen is if the O’s are truly far out of the mix by the time the deadline rolls around. I don’t think they are THAT bad of a team, so I can’t see how they are 10 or 15 games out of a playoff spot with two months to go. Machado is going to stick around and see this thing through, and then he’s likely going to walk away from the team that drafted him.
It’s going to sting. But as Dr. Seuss once said, “don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened.”
All Photos: GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld
