Well, Birds fans, it was inevitable. After a bunch of positive editions of this column in succession, we finally have our first morose Three Up, Three Down of the season, following a disappointing 2-4 homestand against the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians.
Big picture, we would have all signed up for a 16-12 month of May four weeks ago, as the team faced down that gauntlet of a schedule. While losing two of three in back-to-back home series as the calendar flipped wasn’t the cherry on top we’d hoped for, these things happen. Hell, the Oakland Athletics just took two of three from the Atlanta Braves.
Baseball.
Let’s see who the culprits were in the bummer six-pack at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and who kept performing even during the losses.
Two and four means we start with…
Three Down
Adam Frazier
We mentioned Adam Frazier in our UP last week under the Mike Elias heading. Frazier was the O’s best hitter on the road trip, but was completely useless at the plate upon returning to Baltimore. Frazier, who had a 205 wRC+ on the road trip, hit just .190/.190/.238, with no walks, no RBI, and a 19% strikeout rate in 21 plate appearances, for a wRC+ of 11. That drops him down to a 101 wRC+ for the season, at .246/.316/.406, with six home runs and 23 driven in.
Compared to his 2022 numbers, all of this is still a pleasant surprise from Frazier. However, at least for this week, those who bashed the $8M signing when it happened certainly have a leg to stand on. Let’s see if Adam can bounce back as the team heads back on the road.
Ryan Mountcastle
Ryan Mountcastle was also dreadful on the homestand, continuing his largely disappointing month of May. After going just 4-for-22 with a single extra-base hit (double), two RBI and five strikeouts to just one walk over the last six (.182/.240/227, good for a wRC+ of 29), Mounty finished up May at .222/.275/.435 (OPS of .710), with five home runs and 17 RBI, a wRC+ of 90.
As Matt Kremnitzer pointed out on Twitter, the guy is just creating too many damn outs.
Ryan Mountcastle's OBP by season:
2020: .386
2021: .309
2022: .305
2023: .269We can talk about bad luck and the LF wall… but he just doesn't get on base enough
— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) June 1, 2023
That prompted me to look into his plate discipline numbers on FanGraphs. He’s currently swinging at 58.5% of pitches he sees, up from 56.3% in 2021, and he isn’t swinging at the right pitches. His O-Swing% (pitches outside the strike zone) is at 44.7%, a career high, while his Z-Swing% (pitches inside the strike zone) is 80.8%, lower than only his 2021 season.
Mountcastle was bumped down the batting order a few times this week. His platoon splits are pretty bad as well, as he is hitting just .196/.228/.327 against righties, all well below his career numbers of .253/.305/.438 against right-handed pitching. One wonders if we might start to see some more Ryan O’Hearn starts at first base against righties.
On the other hand, June is Mounty’s best month throughout his career, as he sports a line of .312/.384/.624. Hopefully we see June Ryan Mountcastle emerge here very soon.
Most of the Bullpen
Yesterday, in what should have been Grayson Rodriguez‘s start (after being quite literally sent DOWN, he could certainly have been the focus here), the Birds instead decided to go with a “bullpen game,” and the results were, predictably, disastrous. Despite putting up eight runs on Cleveland ace Shane Bieber, who’d historically dominated them, the O’s still lost the game 12-8 thanks to the inability of any of said bullpen arms to record outs.
Why was this predictable? Well, because everyone in the Orioles bullpen not named Felix Bautista or (to a lesser extent) Yennier Cano has been shaky at best, and DFA-worthy at worst over the past few weeks.
Focusing on just the past six games:
You can make the argument that a few of those guys, namely Baker and Baumann, have hit some bad luck. But others’ numbers are as inept as our eyes told us they were. For a couple weeks there, it looked as if Cionel Perez had turned a corner, but he looks like a DFA candidate once again. Mychal Givens‘ control is terrible, and he has a 13.50 BB/9 over four innings pitched at the moment.
There are competent pitchers in Norfolk who can take these spots. These guys’ seats should be getting very warm.
Dishonorable Mentions
Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez
Three Up
Adley Rutschman
After seeing Adley in the DOWN category last week, it feels good to have him back in his rightful place for the second time in three weeks. A reminder that ESR’s Dillon Atkinson tweeted this, which we included in the last edition of Three Up, Three Down:
You may be concerned about Adley Rutschman’s struggles lately. Don’t be. You wanna know why? Because he just hates wearing gray, that’s all.
Adley home/road splits this year:
Home: .316/.427/.582, 176 wRC+
Away: .221/.364/.288, 91 wRC+— Dillon Atkinson (@DillonTAtkinson) May 26, 2023
As it turned out, Dillon didn’t know just how correct he was. Adley was the Birds’ best hitter back in the friendly confines, going 10-for-18 with three walks, no strikeouts, a homer and three driven in (.556/.619/.722, wRC+ 281). He was aided by a .529 BABIP, and had three infield singles yesterday. Rutschman finishes May with a line of .286/.412/.449 for the month, and currently sports a 140 wRC+ in his sophomore campaign. His 1.9 fWAR is third among major league catchers, behind Atlanta’s Sean Murphy, who is off to a scorching start, and, annoyingly, former O’s farmhand Jonah Heim.
Here’s to Adley keeping it going on the road trip.
Anthony Santander
Anthony Santander also kept his scorching May going, as his putrid April drifts further from the collective memory of Birdland. Slamtander was 7-for-19 with three doubles, a triple, a home run, and five RBI against Texas and his former squad (.368/.400/.789, wRC+ 222). Santander’s month was the stuff All-Star bids are made of: .337/.422/.634, 7 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B, 22 RBI.
MLB leaders in wRC+ for May
1. Judge 253
2. Freeman 212
3. Soto 202
4. Gurriel 200
5. Anthony Santander 191— Eutaw Street Report (@EutawStReport) June 1, 2023
Pretty good company!
Felix Bautista
The return of The Mountain! Felix Bautista had made save situations a little iffy around these parts for much of May, as his command eluded him at times, and the splitter sometimes didn’t split (see the game-tying home run allowed to Aaron Judge in Yankee Stadium).
This week though? Bautista was ridiculous. He faced six batters, striking out four of them, for a nifty K/9 of 18.0. That’s also his number for the 2023 season thus far, best in MLB. The Judge homer was the only run Bautista allowed over his last 10 appearances spanning 11.1 IP.
Here’s to getting this man some more save opportunities (though winning games without needing him from time to time would be cool too…hint hint, guys.)
