Since we last checked in on the ups and downs of Birdland, the O’s went on the road for a trip that started off in very disappointing fashion but finished well, then came home and continued their dominance of the AL East. First, their sweepless streak finally came to an end in St. Louis as they lost all three to the Cardinals, seemingly forgetting to bring their bats west. Fortunately, the Chicago White Sox were just what the doctor ordered, and Baltimore completed a four-game sweep of their own. So far this week, back home in the friendly confines, the good guys took two of three from the Boston Red Sox, running their season record against the Sawx to 5-1.
As they await the Rays for the first time in 2024, let’s see who was up and who was down during the 6-4 stretch.
Three Up
Ryan Mountcastle
What a swing for Mounty! He headlined our DOWN category last time after putting up a 75 wRC+ in 29 PA, but he turned that around nicely over his last 34 PA, during which he posted a .406/.441/.531 line (182 wRC+) with four doubles and two walks. The latter are notable as they were his first two free passes since April 24. Mounty was using the entire field, always a sign that he is getting hot again. While he hasn’t homered since May 8, I think we’re all confident the long balls are coming here shortly.
For the season, Mountcastle is at .283/.322/.466, good for a 125 wRC+, fourth on the Birds among qualified hitters behind Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Adley Rutschman.
Kyle Stowers
Usually, I wouldn’t consider someone like Kyle Stowers eligible for three up, three down due to his low number of plate appearances, but I’m going to make an exception this time. My reasoning? Stowers gets credit for getting the call at all, after not being in the majors for exactly a calendar year (his final MLB game in 2023 was on May 14, and his first this year was on May 15). Often the forgotten man among Birds positional prospects due to his relatively advanced age (26), Stowers didn’t sulk during his time in AAA, instead continuing to mash (11 HR in 36 games this year) and earning himself another promotion.
So far, he’s seized the opportunity. In 19 PA since being called up, Stowers is hitting .389/.368/.556, a 157 wRC+. Over the last 10 games, “Light Tower Stowers” is hitting .462/.429/.692 (208 wRC+) in 14 PA. He nearly saved the Birds’ sweepless streak in St. Louis, were it not for an amazing play in right field by Lars Nootbaar. I’d be remiss to omit that his .500 BABIP is due to crash back to earth, but for now, Kyle is living good.
With Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, and Cedric Mullins continuing to struggle, hopefully Stowers continues to get – and make the most of his – opportunities.
Kyle Bradish
While I wanted to give this spot to Corbin Burnes following his stellar outing last night against Boston, the fact is that Kyle Bradish was even better. On Sunday in Chicago, Bradish no-hit the White Sox through seven innings, striking out 11 while walking four. While he, understandably, wasn’t given the chance to chase history thanks to his recent injury and being at 103 pitches, that does nothing to diminish how dominant his outing was. Prior to that, he gave up just a single run on four hits over five innings in St. Louis, striking out six and walking one. The Birds have won four of Bradish’s five starts since he was activated, and with that 1.75 ERA, he looks to be every bit the emerging ace he was in 2023.
Over 12.0 IP in those two starts, Kyle had a setup man-esque 12.75 K/9, and for the season he’s at 11.9 in 25.2 IP (2023: 8.96).
That’ll play.
Honorable Mentions
Gunnar Henderson (3 HR, 157 wRC+), Jordan Westburg (134 wRC+), Corbin Burnes, Danny Coulombe
Three Down
Colton Cowser
Remember how I mentioned that Stowers is living good? His fellow young outfielder Colton Cowser is on the opposite end of that spectrum at the moment. Thanks in large part to an .095 BABIP (but also to a 32.4% K rate), the Moo Man is very down, having hit just .088/.162/.176 (wRC+ of 2) over 37 PA over the stretch. Cowser continues to have good at-bats, leading the O’s in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) with 4.15, and to hit the ball hard, as his Statcast metrics show.
Cowser still boasts a 121 wRC+, third among AL rookies, and is second in fWAR among that group to Boston’s Wilyer Abreu (1.8 to 1.7).
He’ll break out again. Just gotta get that BABIP turned around.
Ryan O’Hearn
Ryan O’Hearn got his most regular playing time of 2024 so far with Mountcastle and other DH options scuffling a bit, with 37 PA over the last 10. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with those at-bats, hitting just .222/.243/.333, good for a 65 wRC+. O’Him joined Cowser and a bunch of his teammates under the flame of that damn BABIP dragon.
Time for our latest check on BABIP Roulette!
Over the last 10:
🐲
Cowser .095
McCann .100
Mateo .158
Santander .176
Gunnar .182
Ced .211
O'Him .233🍀
Stowers .545
Mounty .500
Westy .320
Hays .308— Eutaw Street Report (@EutawStReport) May 30, 2024
While O’Hearn continues to do a great job of not striking out (just five during the stretch and a team-low 9.7%), he could also stand to walk a bit more, with only one over the last 10 games.
Just like Cowser, the Statcast metrics continue to paint a picture of a player going through some bad luck (however, his average exit velocities have dipped noticeably of late). The same can’t be said for some of our dishonorable mentions (see below).
Keegan Akin
Yikes. Keegan Akin had been one of the season’s early pleasant surprises, with scoreless outings in 12 of his first 14 and 18 of his first 21 appearances. His ERA had fallen all the way down to 2.66 after 1.1 scoreless in St. Louis on Monday May 20. He gave up a single run over 2.1 the next day – perfectly respectable.
But then on Saturday in Chicago, he relieved Albert Suarez, making the spot start, in the fifth and promptly loaded the bases and gave up a three-run triple to lefty Gavin Sheets. He was given the chance to finish another inning, but instead walked Andrew Benintendi (one of the worst players in baseball) for the second time in as many frames.
Two nights ago against Boston, Akin entered a close game in the ninth, as the Birds trailed Boston 5-3. Instead of keeping it close, Akin turned it into a laugher, allowing three runs on two hits, including a homer over Walltimore to…Rob Refsnyder? Seriously?
Hopefully this is just a blip for Akin. While many O’s fans are ready to send him into the sun, the big picture says he’s earned more chances to right the ship. There’s clearly something about Nick Vespi the organization doesn’t like, and with the bullpen already needing reinforcement, having another question mark out there would be less than ideal.
Dishonorable Mentions
Austin Hays (50 wRC+), Cedric Mullins (17 wRC+), James McCann (-32 wRC+), the 6-man rotation, Dean Kremer (4 IP, 11.25 ERA, placed on IL), Jonathan Heasley (36.00 ERA, demoted), John Means (placed on IL),
