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Three Up, Three Down: A Lead, If You Can Keep It

Need a bigger lead shark
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It was a 3-3 week for the Birds, and they chose those wins wisely, taking two of the final three (for three of four overall) in Tampa before a disappointing series loss in Philadelphia. The series in Philly involved three more nailbiters, and overall it’s been a very stressful few series for O’s fans. In their last seven, Baltimore has been involved in four one-run games, two two-run games, and a three-run game. Frustratingly, the squad led in all three games against the Phillies, including with just one more out to get in game two.

Let’s review a week that had Birdland reaching for the antacids, and which was perfectly summed up by the above picture, that we made earlier in this season.

Three Up

The Ryans

Ryan O’Hearn remained Ryan O’Him, with clutch late-game hits, home runs, and RBI in both series. In 15 plate appearances, O’Hearn hit .333/.333/.800 with a double, two homers, three RBI, and two runs scored for a wRC+ of 207. For the season, O’Hearn has a 140 wRC+, leading all Orioles with at least 150 plate appearances. He’s hitting .308/.351/.533 with nine homers, 33 RBI, and is tied with Gunnar Henderson for the team lead with a .225 ISO (slugging minus batting average). As our friends Jake & Scott at Bird’s Eye View have said for months now, he really is the 2023 Steve Pearce.

Not to be outdone, O’Hearn’s first base platoon partner Ryan Mountcastle finally looks to be getting back to form following his earlier struggles and then his IL stint with vertigo. In 18 PA, Mounty posted a .333/.444/.600 slash line (190 wRC+) with a double, an RBI on a huge HR to straightaway center in Philly, and three walks. His two-hit night on Tuesday was his second of the month and just his third since way back on May 16. Hopefully he’s ready to get hot and help carry the team for a couple weeks as we all know he’s capable of. Barring that, here’s to Mounty just remaining a solid contributor for the rest of the season; the team needs his bat.

Ya know what? I’m going to throw Ryan McKenna in here too, as he’s back with the big club following Aaron Hicks‘ injury.

Adam Frazier

The Ryans weren’t the only veteran bats to contribute, as the beleaguered Adam Frazier made the most of his 10 PA, with four hits including an RBI double in Tuesday’s loss. After a very poor June, Frazier has brought his season line back up to .241/.304/.419 (99 wRC+), thanks to a  .304/.319/.565 July (141 wRC+, second on the team behind O’Hearn). With Jordan Westburg going through his MLB growing pains (.224/.274/.414 in 62 PA this month after his hot 5-for-13 start to his career), Frazier’s rebound has been critical to the team’s ongoing success.

Now, if he can just get his glove down…

Felix Bautista

The Mountain took care of business in Tampa against the Rays. After picking up the win in the opener, he pitched a perfect ninth to nail down Saturday’s 6-5 win, including striking out the final two batters, then came back on in the ninth on Sunday and struck out the side (Luke Raley, Josh Lowe, and and Wander Franco) around two singles as the O’s won 5-3.

Two appearances, 22.50 K/9, two saves, no walks, a -1.72 FIP and xFIP. Ho hum.

Unfortunately, all that meant he wasn’t available Monday or Tuesday in Philly, and the team definitely could have used him Tuesday. There was some hand-wringing about Brandon Hyde‘s decision-making, but we need to remember that Bautista started to wear down late in the season in 2022. The Birds need this guy fresh. Here’s to him making some Yankees look silly this weekend.

Honorable Mentions: Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Mike Baumann, Shintaro Fujinami (it was a pitching kinda week, where we could have used some more offense!)

Three Down

Anthony Santander

Anthony Santander was down bad this week. Tony Taters led the team in plate appearances with 26, and did absolutely nothing productive with them: a single, a double, one RBI, one walk, and nine strikeouts (.080/.115/.120, -43 wRC+). Tony has at least one strikeout in eight straight games, and 13 total over that time. His season numbers peaked on July 16 against the Marlins at .275/.344/.503 (.847 OPS), and have been in free fall since. They now sit at .259/.331/.469 (.800 OPS).

Still, to show you just how hot he was prior to this cold snap, he is still fifth on the team with a 116 wRC+ in July.

We’re confident that Santander will get things turned around just as he did after his horrid April, but for now, Taters is decidedly DOWN.

Yennier Cano

A combination of fatigue and regression to the mean have teamed up on Yennier Cano recently. In 2.1 IP this week, Cano posted a 7.71 ERA and just two strikeouts. He had already blown the save on Thursday night before the Birds came back to win, allowing two inherited runners to score, then he backed that up by allowing another inherited runner to score in Saturday’s win. He managed a clean inning and a hold on Sunday, before blowing the save in Tuesday’s loss in Philly.

Cano now has three blown saves this month, after racking up only two through June.

With just a few days remaining until the trade deadline, it’s glaringly clear that this team still needs additional bullpen help.

Austin Hays

Since making his first ever All-Star Game appearance and start, Austin Hays has been very down. His team desperately needs him to step up with his fellow veteran outfielders Cedric Mullins and Hicks on the IL, but Austin hit just .217/.250/.304 (50 wRC+) in 24 PA this week, despite a .294 BABIP. He had two doubles, two RBI, and struck out six times to just a single walk.

Unlike Santander, Hays didn’t have a hot first half of the month either. In July, he’s now batting just .197/.219/.205 and his season OPS has dropped from .855 to start the month to .794 heading into the Yankees series. Remember that on Sunday July 2 against Minnesota, Hays was involved in a collision at first base and then missed five games just prior to the ASB. We can hope that nursing something explains his drop off to a degree, as we’ve seen similar nagging injuries derail his performance in the past. This team won’t reach their ceiling without Hays bouncing back, however. Fingers crossed.

Dishonorable Mentions: Danny Coulombe, Jorge Mateo, Tyler Wells, Gunnar Henderson

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