It’s here. It doesn’t feel like it, with all the cold weather coming through Maryland, but here in sunny Sarasota, Florida, every day is at least 70 degrees and paradise, which means it is time for baseball season. Spring Training games started this weekend, and while other teams around the league have constant drama leaking out, the vibes with the O’s are still higher than ever. These Orioles just look like they love playing together, and it seems impossible to think a Rafael Devers-esque situation could suddenly pop up. There’s no drama, the weather is perfect, the players love each other, they give autographs away like candy, and everything is peachy over here in Orioles camp.
So, if vibes are fantastic around the team itself, why do they feel off when fans and analysts talk about the Birds? The baseball world and even the Orioles fanbase have been so hostile about this team all winter. The way people talk about them, you would think this team is maybe a 70-win team spinning their rudders in the hopeless ocean of MLB mediocrity. Despite the negativity, they still have the fourth-highest odds to win the World Series and a wide-open American League in which to make a run.
In some respects, it is understandable why people feel this way. This offseason did not live up to expectations and has left many questions about the 2025 Orioles. The one thing that the 2025 Orioles have to do to become those World Series favorites is: step up. It is time for this roster of former top prospects to step up and lead this team to where they want to be.
We will discuss that, but first, we must dissect the offseason and explain why it feels like a disappointment. Unfortunately for us, disappointing offseasons from good Orioles teams are what we’re used to. The 2012-16 Orioles never made a true all-in move that solidified themselves as World Series favorites either. So that is where the disappointment comes from: this was supposed to be different. With new ownership and a GM who has seen two straight years of playoff disappointment, this was the perfect time to go all in on this core. We had expectations now, and David Rubenstein’s wallet was there to get what the team needed. Yet they didn’t make the big move that many wanted. They didn’t sign one of the three aces available; they couldn’t even get a great tier-two starter. What is weird is that outside of the lack of acquiring that conventional ace/number one pitcher, the offseason doesn’t look that bad. They raised the payroll to get us around the middle of the pack, and the moves they made as far as position players have good upside.
Swapping Anthony Santander for Tyler O’Neill will be something we debate for a while. However, O’Neill’s offensive profile – a lefty demolisher (he was a top-three hitter against southpaws last year) – fits better than Santander’s. Santander was a fan favorite, and we can debate who the better player is, but O’Neill is the better fit. Gary Sanchez for James McCann is a take-it-or-leave-it situation, but Sanchez has more power than McCann and hits lefties well. The main thing the Orioles did, in fact, was add a bunch of lefty mashers to the bench who can play the outfield. As much as we love Cedric Mullins, he is useless offensively against lefties, and Ramon Laureano and Dylan Carlson could help ease some of those issues they’ve had against lefties for a while now. Combine that will Walltimore moving in, and the Orioles offense should be more consistent than last year.
The bullpen is a question mark. It hinges on the health of Felix Bautista, and there isn’t a way to tell how good he will be until we see him throw. Andrew Kittredge is a good right-handed specialist, and watch out for Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez to have big roles, of course. Those two were good down the stretc, and they will be relied upon again.
Now for this rotation. While it is true that they don’t have a stereotypical number one/ace-level pitcher that most World Series contenders have (some even have several multiple), here is the hot take: this rotation isn’t nearly as bad as some seem to think. It does, however, hinge on Grayson Rodriguez. He might be the most important member of the 2025 Orioles. If he becomes a reliable quasi-ace, the rest of the rotation falls into place beautifully. Zach Eflin, as a number two, is incredible, and the back end is filled with guys who can pitch well, unlike what many in the fanbase will try to say. Dean Kremer is solid as a three, and the rest must find their spots. Cade Povich was bad when he first came up but showed much improvement as the year went on. Charlie Morton is a fine enough innings eater, and Tomoyuki Sugano and Albert Suarez are the wild cards. You add a healthy Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish in the second half, and now we are cooking.
The rotation probably won’t be as good as they were in 2024, but with a more balanced offense and a better bullpen, things may even out nicely.
Is it disappointing they didn’t get a true Corbin Burnes replacement? Of course, but it isn’t surprising when you look at the offseason in the landscape of the MLB. This isn’t surprising. If a team wanted to get an ace in free agency, the options are always limited. Burnes wanted to stay in Arizona; Blake Snell probably didn’t fit what the Orioles wanted out of a pitcher, meaning he doesn’t throw enough innings. As for Max Fried, giving him eight years is about as risky a contract as you’ll see, and that deal could well be an albatross in two years.
Even in the trade market, these GMs from other teams are not playing fairly when identifying what a particular player is worth.
The #Padres asked about INF Jordan Westburg and top-prospects Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo in trade talks with the #Orioles about SP Dylan Cease, per @masnRoch pic.twitter.com/aUbUWkIVu7
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) February 8, 2025
Look at this, man. Are you kidding me, Padres? Why not throw in a prime Cal Ripken and one of our World Series trophies with that deal? That is a laughable demand for Dylan Cease, who is only a rental and a Scott Boras client, so you know he is hitting free agency and leaving anyway. Even if you could confirm that he would be open to an extension, Cease isn’t worth what A.J. Preller is asking.
We can only imagine what kind of insanity other teams are asking for different players.
So, was it a disappointing offseason? In some ways, yes. In other ways, some real improvements were made that are being overlooked by a large majority. They made some improvements around the margins offensively with a much better bench of right-handed options that can hit lefties, and solid additions to the bullpen and rotation.
Here is the point: It means nothing if these players they have spent years developing don’t play well. This goes for any team in baseball, but particularly for the Birds. This young core they have spent time developing has to, again, do one thing, the theme for the 2025 O’s: step up.
Somebody from the young core needs to step up and help out. It will be hard for Gunnar Henderson to repeat the nearly nine WAR season he put up last year, but perhaps he can be a more consistent player with fewer throwing errors. For the rest of these players, they have to show what they are worth. Adley Rutschman can’t do what he did in the second half, Jordan Westburg has to stay healthy, Ryan Mountcastle can’t use the wall as an excuse to be a barely above-average offensive first baseman, Jackson Holliday has to show why he was the number one prospect in baseball a year ago, Colton Cowser can’t be a good hitter for only 20% of the season, and most importantly Grayson Rodriguez has to show up and put together a year worthy of a number one pitcher. Getting a breakout from someone like Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo will also be a huge boost as well.
These will be the factors that will lead the Orioles to success in 2025. The rest of the team is spoken for, and it is time for these young Oriole players to step up. This offseason has confirmed one thing: the failure or success of the Baltimore Orioles in 2025 will hinge on the young players that this team has developed through the draft and trades, and if they fail again, so will this team. The pressure is on these players, so it is time for them to do one thing: Step up.
