While the Orioles are still tied with the New York Yankees for the most home runs in MLB with 186 (both squads are 24 clear of the third place Los Angeles Dodgers), they’ve been going through a marked power outage lately.
Since the All-Star break, they’ve hit 37 home runs, fifth in baseball.
That’s not the whole story, though. If not for one Anthony Santander putting together a career year, things would be much more dire. Of those 37 dingers, Tony Taters has mashed a whopping 12 of them, or nearly 1/3 (32%). Young Jackson Holliday, who wasn’t even on the team until July 31, has accounted for another five. Fellow rookie Colton Cowser has found his power stroke as well, and has six of them.
So that’s 23 of the 37 homers, 62%, from three players, two of whom nobody would have expected to be among the team’s long ball leaders when the season started.
Third place on the team in homers since the ASB? That would be a tie between Jordan Westburg, who’s been on the injured list since being hit by a pitch on July 31, and Cedric Mullins, who’s started just 15 of the 25 games during that stretch.
The main culprits in the power outage are some big names from whom the Birds will start needing to get some more production going forward.
Before Gunnar Henderson‘s first-inning blast last night, his 30th of the season, he’d homered just once since the All-Star break, back on August 4 in Cleveland. It’s hard to be too worried about Henderson, as he still has a 132 wRC+ (.292/.376/.427) over the stretch. He’s just not been lifting the ball as much, and has had a little bad luck. All of us can think of a half dozen balls he’s blistered right into opponents’ gloves lately off the top of our heads. I think we can safely assume he’s about to get untracked again.
Gunnar Henderson’s process has largely stayed the same. He’s still posting elite EV’s and HardHit%. Why isn’t he hitting homers?
My guess: combo of bad luck, slightly more line drives, and a spike in IFFB%
.435 SLG/.540 xSLG in August#Birdland pic.twitter.com/G2l1Ae4C6X
— Josh (@jjlinnjj) August 14, 2024
But what about the others, notably Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, and Ryan O’Hearn, who each have as many homers for the Orioles since the break as the departed Connor Norby (one)?
O’Hearn’s overall batting numbers are even better than Gunnar’s (.299/.430/.448, 154 wRC+), but seven of his nine hits so far in August have been singles. He’s also walked more than he’s struck out this month (7:9), with that 21.2 BB% leading the squad.
He’s pulling the ball a bit less, going to the opposite field more, and his HR/FB% has dropped off a cliff. A few more pulled flies, a regression of that second number, and “Turn n Burn” may be about to hit the hydration station again shortly.
The concerning ones are Adley and Mounty. In 88 PA since the ASB, Mountcastle is striking out 26% of the time, and 17 of his 23 hits are singles (1 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B). He has a 91 wRC+ in that span. In August, he’s hitting just .172/.200/.310, with one double and one homer.
Mounty is another one having a heck of a time with that HR/FB%, which was 9.1% in July and zero in August. He’s been pulling the ball more than usual lately, so perhaps we’ll see him start to go to right and right-center here, especially with eight of the next 11 games in Walltimore.
Rustchman homered in his first AB coming out of the break, and we hoped it would portend a huge second half. Unfortunately, the rest of July was a black hole for him, as he went just 4-for-32 to finish the month. He’s turned it around in August, batting .333/.366/.472 this month, though still without a homer (three doubles, one triple). The strikeouts are low (four), but the walks are even lower (two).
A 13.0 HR/FB% in the first half, 3.4% in the second, despite hitting more fly balls, and pulling them more often, in the second. His HardHit% is nearly identical at 30.0 to 29.2 (though both down from 33% Mar-May). Again, I think it’s fair to expect things to even out a bit.
That goes both ways, of course. Can Santander’s 23.5% HR/FB rate in the second half continue? His career number is 14.4%, so let’s say…unlikely.
Since the break, the Birds are 13-12. While it’s been nice to see them score runs without relying as much on the long ball, we’ve also seen that a team that’s built like they are needs to hit the ball over the fence with more regularity to be one of the best in the sport. That’s doubly true with all the injuries to the pitching staff, and with their less-than-reliable bullpen.
Whether or not the O’s can repeat as AL East champs will largely depend on whether or not the Birdland Power Company can get charged up here again over the next six weeks. Let’s see some of those other guys start to take some of the pressure off Santander, huh?
