Many names have been thrown around this off-season as possible leadoff hitters for the 2015 Baltimore Orioles, but Steve Pearce has not been one of them (at least as far as I’ve seen).
I ask “why not?”
Lets start by looking at the most popular option compared to Pearce and then we will look at why not batting Pearce leadoff could be a detriment to the rest of the team.
The most popular name it seems as been Alejandro De Aza.
[RELATED: Who’s Leading Off in 2015?]
Lets start with the old basic stat – Batting Average. In 477 AB in 2014, De Aza collected a cool 120 hits making for a respectable .252 BA. This is about .30 points shy of his career high in 2012 of .281.
On the other hand we have Pearce with 99 hits through 338 AB’s for a .293 BA, a career high for the soon to be 32-year-old. Of course, BA is not a GREAT stat to use to compare players – OBP is much better. De Aza held a very respectable .314 OBP, almost .60 points SHY of Pearce’s .373 in 2014.
How about pitches per plate appearance (P/PA)? Pearce sees 3.98 pitches compared to the 3.94 that De Aza sees. Doubles? Pearce 26 – De Aza 24. Walks? 40-39, Pearce.
Getting deeper into the Sabermetrics, in 2014 Pearce created 69.7 runs, compared to the 57.9 of De Aza. In fact, the only real category where De Aza makes more sense as a leadoff hitter is stolen bases, where he had 17 to Pearce’s five (Note – De Aza got caught 10 times compared to Pearce with 0). Keep in mind Pearce did all this in 109 FEWER AB.
All of this is great information, and many would argue that because of this, plus his power (21 home runs in 2014 – a nice threat at the top of the lineup), Pearce would be a better fit later in the line-up where he can drive in runs. And on most teams I can understand this argument. However where do you slot Pearce on a healthy Orioles squad? A healthy Machado is an easy fit batting 2nd, Jones is a staple 3, Crush (plus Adderall) sits at 4, healthy Wieters at 5, and JJ is sitting at 6. So to take Pearce out of the Leadoff spot means either slotting him in at 7 or moving Hardy back to the 7 hole and anyone else back 1 spot from where you slot in Pearce, so that De Aza can lead off.
The point is that not only is Pearce’s bat is more valuable to the Orioles than De Aza’s, but so is the bat of the projected 2-6 hitters. The leadoff spot ideally only happens once a game, so why waste the space with De Aza?
If you bat the combination of De Aza, Snider, Schoop and Young (one would be sitting) in the 7-9 spots, then when the line-up turns over in the 2nd, or 3rd inning you have a clutch hitting Pearce to move runners over and/or drive them in, compared to the powerless De Aza.
submitted by Josh VerStandig
