The All Star break is already here and yesterday was arguably the most exciting day of the season so far. Not only did the Orioles finish a sweep of the Twins in convincing fashion to take a five-game winning streak into the break but they also promoted Coby Mayo to AAA and Jackson Holiday to AA. Couple those things with Day 1 of the 2023 MLB draft and the excitement of 2023 arguably reached its peak, thus far.
While the focus right now is on 2023, yesterday was a reminder that bigger things are still to come and that we should all feel great about the future of this team. Speaking of that future, we are seeing a changing of the guard right before our eyes.
Over the last few weeks, the Orioles have called up Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser, two players who appear to be here to stay. Heston Kjerstad, who is hitting the cover off the ball in AAA, is getting close and should be next. Joey Ortiz, who has been up a few times already, should be up soon as well and starting nearly every day at shortstop. By this time next year, there is a very good chance that Mayo, Holliday and perhaps Jud Fabian will also be ready.
Now, some of that is obviously best-case scenario and rarely do we see best-case scenario play out in top levels of pro sports in terms of all of picks developing and becoming everyday contributors at the highest level. That being said, it’s quite possible that the Orioles will be more of an exception to that rule. Right now, we are seeing no slowing down of top prospects as they move up the ladder. Now, maybe that will occur with some of these guys at some point, but there are certainly no signs of it as of yet.
The next question is, what does this mean for the existing vets on the team? We know Adam Frazier is likely not an Oriole in 2024, but what about Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo? My guess is Mateo is DFA’d soon, perhaps as early as this week. The Orioles just can’t keep him around anymore. While his speed is an asset off the bench, there are only so many bench spots available and the team isn’t going to keep 12 pitchers on the 26. His defense, while important, isn’t as important with Ortiz here, who is likely his equal defensively. Urias represents a guy that can help you in a myriad of ways, but he also may be more valuable as a trade piece. I think that is TBD, but a starting infield with Westburg, Gunnar Henderson and Ortiz playing mostly everyday is on the near horizon.
That brings us to the three most important veteran bats: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander.
Hays, who is finally putting together a productive and healthy season, is an All-Star starter and a fan favorite. He plays hard and has always had the talent to be an everyday player, but his lack of availability and reliability have plagued him his whole career. Is the year a sign of things to come or an exception? For 2024, Hays has a place with this team, at least to start.
The 2024 team, whether it’s on Opening Day or shortly after, likely has Mayo at first and Kjerstad and Cowser on the corner OF spots. However, there is still the DH and Kjerstad may spell Mayo at times at first base, so there are plenty of at bats for Hays. He figures, assuming he stays healthy and productive, to make $6-7M in 2024, so money won’t be an issue. It is fair to ask if it is better to trade him after a good 2023 season, as his value will never be higher and maybe you don’t trust him to stay healthy but I would expect him to be here to start 2024.
Santander is as good as gone in my opinion, and while I know we are contending, I would be looking to deal him now. The talk is that buyer-to-buyer trades could happen and there are pitching-rich/offense-starved teams like Seattle and Miami who could be looking to improve their offense right now and could get the Orioles some pitching that they need.
If you keep Santander for this season, I do not know how you keep him for his final arbitration season next year. He will likely make $10+M in 2024 and while his bat is good, he is still a guy that doesn’t provide great defense, doesn’t provide a lot of value on the bases and doesn’t get on base at a very high rate (although that is an aspect of his game that is showing improvement). He also does not have great OPS numbers batting from the left side over his career. Although the splits are good right now, the left side wasn’t looking that good about a month or so ago.
Still, he is a 25-35 HR bat who should provide an ~.800 OPS and that has value. The Orioles just happen to be in a position where they may get similar production for a fraction of the cost. Obviously it’s not a guarantee, but I like the chances of a guy like Kjerstad to give them that. Whether or not Santander is dealt in the next few weeks remains to be seen but unless the season ends with some key future pieces having some injury issues or we see terrible performances, I’m guessing Santander will not be an Oriole in 2024.
And then there is Mullins, a guy who was well on his way to an All-Star season before the injury derailed it. I think Mullins’ place on the team is 2024 is secure. The Orioles likely won’t have an MLB-ready centerfielder for 2024, and with the way they value defense, I think they choose to keep him. However, he will only have one more year of service time after 2024 and I think he will be gone after that. I have never been in favor of an extension for him anyway but between Fabian and now the 1st round selection of Enrique Bradfield, the writing is on the wall that Mullins’ days are numbered. I know the fans love him – and rightfully so – but age and salary will catch up to him, not to mention younger, cheaper and talented options are coming up behind him. Fabian could be ready next year at some point, and Bradfield shouldn’t need more than two years since he is a college hitter coming from a high-end program and conference.
While it will be sad to see these players go, it will also be exciting with what is coming up behind them and the upside of the team going forward.
As I mentioned earlier, I know this all sounds too “best case scenario.” Will these guys stay healthy? Will they all develop? The answer to that is obviously, we don’t know and obviously, assuming everyone hits may be a poor assumption to make. However, teams like Houston, Tampa, and Atlanta are largely home grown as well and it has worked out well for them. This is the model Mike Elias wants and it’s a model that keeps the payroll down, which is what John Angelos wants. The Orioles will also have resources at their disposal to fill in gaps if needs be as well.
This isn’t to take away from what is going on now; it’s quite the opposite really. Its looking at now and the future. The team is in an amazing position right now where the window is just opening and it should be open for a while. They should be entering an Atlanta or Houston type of run even if they are in, arguably, the best division in all of sports. Go win now, but being able to do that and keeping your eye on the future is exciting and it’s a rare thing in sports nowadays.
I don’t think it can be overstated enough just how talented this organization is right now. The job done by Elias and his staff is incredible and hopefully all of these guys are being given raises and contract extensions.
So, enjoy watching Adley tonight and enjoy watching Adley hug Felix Bautista as he closes out the All-Star game tomorrow night but just remember, that things really start to get interesting as the season restarts on Friday.
Buckle up and get ready for lift off.
