Heading into the Twin Cities it was all doom-and-gloom from many Orioles fans. These fans believed the Birds already had an already over-used bullpen, and the fact that the O’s ‘pen threw 8.0 innings in the double header against the Bucs made things even worse, in their eyes.
It was also the end of the world and a certain trip to the DL for Ryan Webb, Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, and Tommy Hunter who all threw twice in the same day. While that’s quite a scarce occurrence in today’s MLB, it’s not completely unthinkable.
Although the Orioles looked tired and downright uninterested in taking the series from the Twinkies and their 14th ranked AL pitching staff and line-up full of nobodies, the world has not come to an end. The perception of the Orioles bullpen being overused may have some merit, but the reality is that – compared to the rest of the MLB – they fall in the back of the pack.
Before the doubleheader against the Pirates, the Orioles ranked 25th overall in innings pitched for relievers (76 IP) and 27th overall in relief appearances (70) in April. The most innings pitched by a bullpen was the Diamondbacks at 109.2 IP and 103 different appearances by relievers.
Note: the only five teams who had fewer IP by the bullpen in April were the Phillies (25 GP 74.1 IP), Tigers (22 GP 70.1IP), Royals (25 GP 67.2 IP), Braves (25 GP 66.1 IP), and Reds (26 GP 61.2 IP).
Of course, it should be noted that the Orioles played the second fewest amount of games in April (23 GP), and when you factor in the 3.3 innings/game average the Orioles pen pitched the Orioles would rank in the top for most innings pitched (92 IP). That is irrelevant though because they didn’t play 28 games, and that 92.0 assumes that the O’s relievers would pitch 3.3 innings in all five additional games.
Looking at the statistics now – after the doubleheader with Pittsburgh and the series in Minnesota – the Birds still rank 23rd in the MLB in innings pitched by relievers (93 IP), and 23rd in reliever appearances (90) in 29 games played.
The Orioles’ ‘pen is also 5-2 with a 3.97 ERA (18th overall), 77.6 LOB% (7th best), and the fourth highest Win Probability Added (WPA) at 1.86. Basically this means when the Birds relievers enter the game, they are increasing the chances of the O’s winning the game.
Who has the most innings pitched by relievers? The Los Angeles Dodgers, with 33 GP 119 IP 3.78 ERA & 123 appearances by relievers.
The same Dodgers who are considered the most likely to win the World Series (7/1 odds per TopBet.eu), and whose starting rotation, even without Clayton Kershaw, is still considered one of the best rotations in baseball. Zach Grienke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Paul Maholm, and Josh Beckett are 13-6, with a combined ERA of 3.04 (5th in MLB) and have 17 QS. For comparison’s sake, the Orioles only have nine.
If 93 IP and 90 appearances seems like the bullpen is being overused, than the Dodgers bullpen’s arms must be falling off.
So what is the obsession with the amount of use of the bullpen? Does more innings pitched by the bullpen mean less success? Of the 22 teams whose bullpens have thrown fewer innings than the Orioles, 11 have winning records (which includes five of the top six teams in baseball – Milwaukee, San Francisco, Oakland, Colorado, and Washington).
Of the seven teams with fewer IP by relievers, only three have winning records. So no, there is no obvious correlation between the amount of IP by the bullpen and success.
Although it may seem the Orioles bullpen is being overused, the reality is that they are being used no more than the majority of the Major League teams’ – if not significantly less. I do still believe that O’s need to see their starters go further into games if they want to continue fighting for an AL East title, but I believe O’s starters aren’t far from stringing together some starts of 6 IP or more.
To address the criticism of Buck’s management of the bullpen…
“In Buck We Trust,” I believe the saying goes. There is a reason Buck Showalter is one of the most successful managers in the MLB and you’re not.
I firmly believe that the Skipper would never put his players in a position that would put them at the risk of getting injured. He has shown this time and time again by pulling players out of the game at even the slightest discomfort, and usually gives them the next day off to ensure that they are 100% before going back onto the field. Multiple Orioles players have said that Buck Showalter is a player’s manager. He is there to make sure every one of his players is put in the best position to be successful, not to become the winningest manager in the MLB.
So while we all want to see the starters pitch better – Buck included if you take his words to MASN’s Jim Hunter following Miguel Gonzalez’s Sunday start to heart – let’s stop worrying too much about Buck “over-taxing” his bullpen.
