It seems like a forgone conclusion that at some point this season Kevin Gausman will be in the Orioles rotation. Orioles fans are eager to see Gausman as a full-time starter and hopefully take over the number one starter role. The Orioles haven’t had a true ace since Mike Mussina bolted for the Yankees after the 2000 season.
Gausman came up in 2013, appearing in 20 games, starting five of them. In 2014, he split time between the Orioles, Norfolk and Aberdeen. While in Baltimore, he was in the rotation making 20 starts. Gausman was 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA. In the postseason, Gausman pitched out of the bullpen, appearing in three games. In eight innings, he had a 1.13 ERA.
So who leaves the rotation, and under what circumstances, to open a spot for Gausman? The unfortunate way would be for someone to get hurt. The Orioles rotation is fairly durable and I don’t wish injury on any of our players.
A starter could be moved to the bullpen and slide Gausman into that spot. At the start of the season, all eyes were on Ubaldo Jimenez. It’s only been two starts but Jimenez has arguably been the O’s best starter (I won’t get into the incident Friday night). Bud Norris has struggled in two of his first three starts this season. Buck Showalter is very loyal to his players and I think everyone will get several starts before being moved to the bullpen. If Norris is still struggling by mid-May, then that’s when we may see a change.
Outside an injury, I think the most likely scenario is a trade later in the season. Teams are still trying to figure out what they have, so a trade now is unlikely. As the trade deadline gets closer, the O’s can trade to fill a need for a playoff push or get a top level prospect for the future.
Here’s a look at each starter:
Chris Tillman is the number one starter on the staff now and reports state the O’s are looking to sign him to a long-term deal. He’s 47-32 in his career, all with the Orioles, but has gone 29-13 over the past two years.
Jimenez had a miserable first year with the Orioles going 7-9 and was left off the postseason roster. He still has three years and $38.25 million left on his contract. I think this contract will make it difficult to trade him unless the Orioles are willing to take on a large portion of his contract.
Miguel Gonzalez is 30-21 during his first three years with Orioles. He’s under team control until 2018 and Buck seems to really like him.
Wei-Yin Chen is a free agent at the end of this year. Chen is the only lefty in the rotation and led the team with 16 wins last year and is 35-25 overall with the Orioles. He is represented by Scott Boras who likes his clients to test the free agent market and there certainly will be one for Wei-Yin. I think the Orioles will try and get a feel during the season for what Chen is looking for and then decide if they’ll be in the running during free agency. If the O’s feel they can’t re-sign Chen, he may be on the block.
Like Chen, Norris is a free agent at the end of this year. He has a bulldog mentality and brings a lot of energy to the team. Since being traded to the Orioles in the middle of the 2013 season, Norris has gone 19-13.
It’s still too early to tell how Gausman will make it into the rotation, but it’s almost certain he will be there by the end of the season. Gausman has been tagged the future ace of the staff and has shown signs of being just that. For now, he can still help the team out of the ‘pen’ while continuing to refine his pitch arsenal and learn from the veterans on the team.
It’s been a long time since the Orioles have had this problem. It’s going to be fun to see how it plays out over the summer.
Player statistics taken from www.baseball-reference.com
