Ladies and gentleman, It’s all good times and good vibes in Birdland at the moment.
Your Baltimore Orioles have surged to a season-best 12-games over .500 at 35-23, after rattling off seven wins over the last eight games since the start of June, and look to be picking up steam as they approach a seven-game road trip with stops in Toronto and Boston.
They’ve also earned a 1.5-game lead on the Red Sox for first place in the division after their stellar start to this month, crossing the border on a four-game winning streak.
After taking the first series of the season versus Toronto at OPACY back in April, the O’s will be looking to notch another series win during their first visit to Ontario of the season.
The Blue Jays (32-29) have been a solid outfit for most of the campaign and come into the four-game clash versus the O’s sitting at third in the AL East and trailing the Birds by 4.5-games. Toronto owns a 6-4 record over their last ten games, but will be disappointed after dropping two of three against the Detroit Tigers directly after posting a stellar 9-3 mark in their previous twelve, all of which came against the Sox or Yankees.
The Blue Jays have also already played an astonishing 35 games versus AL East opponents, posting a solid 19-16 record against their division rivals.
In comparison, the Orioles have played just 21 contests versus the AL East at this point on the campaign, registering a sparkling 13-8 record.
Since the start of the 2012 season, the visiting O’s hold a slight 42-36 advantage over the hosting Blue Jays.
Now, let’s take a look at the projected starters during this four-game match-up:
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Tyler Wilson (2-5, 4.39 ERA) will take the mound against Marcus Stroman (5-2, 4.82 ERA) in the series opener on Thursday.
Wilson will be looking to record another strong outing versus the Blue Jays, a team that he’s recorded a 2.08 ERA against in three outings (one start) over his young career. In his last start versus Toronto in a 5-4 loss on June 19th, 2015, the Lynchburg native allowed just one run on five hits over 5.2 innings with two walks and one strikeout.
Stroman, 25, will be looking to get back into the groove after recording a 1-1 record with a dreadful 6.75 ERA over his last three outings. He has had some success versus Baltimore. Over four games (three starts) against the O’s in his career, the New York native has registered a 2-1 record with a 3.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. In his last start versus the Orioles in a 4-3 win on April 19th, the Duke University alum allowed three runs on six hits over seven innings with one walk and three Ks.
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Kevin Gausman (0-3, 3.52 ERA) is set to face the red-hot Marco Estrada (4-2, 2.41 ERA) in Fridays match-up.
Gausman is somehow still searching for his first win of the season despite recording several tremendous performances.
But that’s baseball for you and sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. And if Gausman would have had some luck on his side this season so far, we could be talking about a guy with a 5-1 record.
If the 25-year-old can replicate his last start versus Toronto, he should have a great chance at recording win #1 of 2016. On September 30th, 2015, Gausman scattered just five hits over eight stellar shutout innings with zero walks and ten punch-outs in an 8-1 victory. Over nine games (four starts) versus the Blue Jays, the Colorado native has recorded a 2-1 record with an impressive 3.03 ERA.
Estrada, 32, has been outstanding over his last three outings, posting a perfect 3-0 mark with a superb 1.96 ERA. On June 5th, the former Brewer allowed just two runs on two hits over eight innings against the Red Sox in a 5-4 win.
In seven games (five starts) against the Orioles, the Mexico native owns a 2-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and has held O’s sluggers to a dismal .179 average at the plate. In his last outing versus the O’s on April 21st, Estrada allowed one run on six hits over five innings with four walks and nine strikeouts but received a no-decision in the 3-2 loss.
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A rejuvenated Mike Wright (3-3, 5.14 ERA) will toe the rubber against veteran J.A. Happ (6-3, 3.57 ERA) on Saturday.
The 26-year-old Wright put forward his best effort of the season in a do-or-die situation last Monday. After being handed a lifeline to reclaim a spot on the pitching staff just days after receiving a demotion to Norfolk, Wright knew that he couldn’t afford any more slip-ups.
The young hurler repaid Buck Showalter’s faith in the biggest of ways, allowing just one unearned run on five hits over seven spectacular innings with two walks and four strikeouts in a 4-1 victory. He’ll be looking to carry that momentum into his next start, despite owning a 0-3 record with a woeful 7.11 ERA and 2.21 WHIP against Toronto in three starts during his young career.
Happ, 33, has posted a 2-3 record with a solid 3.56 ERA in nine games (eight starts) versus the O’s in his career, but the southpaw has yet to face Baltimore in a Blue Jays uniform.
While a member of the Seattle Mariners, the Northwestern alum allowed four runs on four hits over just two innings in his last start versus the O’s, receiving a no-decision in the 5-4 Seattle loss on May 21st, 2015.
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Ubaldo Jimenez (3-6, 6.21 ERA) will take the mound against Blue Jays phenom Aaron Sanchez (5-1, 2.91 ERA) in the series finale on Sunday.
In 14 outings against the Jays over his career, the 32-year-old Jimenez has posted a 6-4 mark with a solid 3.87 ERA while holding them to a lowly .216 batting average. In his last start versus Toronto on April 20th, the DR native allowed two runs on five hits over five innings with four walks and six Ks in the Orioles 4-3 triumph.
Sanchez has been excellent for the Jays as of late and comes into Sunday’s match-up owning a 1-0 record with a stellar 2.11 ERA over his last three outings. In his last start versus Detroit on June 7th, the California native allowed two runs on three hits over eight innings with just one walk while racking up 12 strikeouts.
However, the Orioles have had a decent amount of success versus the 23-year-old early on in his career. In eight games (three starts), Sanchez has recorded a 1-2 record with a 5.14 ERA and 1.76 WHIP against the powerful O’s line-up.
Now, let’s look at the tale of the tape:
Thanks to the recent eight-game surge in which their potent offense has recorded 57 runs (7.1 RPG) along with 18 homers, the O’s are now tied for 4th in the AL in runs per game (4.74) while ranking 7th in batting average (.259), 4th in OBP (.325) and 2nd in HR (87).
Highlighting the recent fireworks are Mark Trumbo, who has hit five dingers in his last seven games, and Adam Jones, who has hit four long balls in the same span. Combined, Trumbo (11) and Jones (8) have racked up 19 homers over the last 28 games.
However, the Orioles highly potent offensive attack will be severely tested against a club with a scorching-hot starting rotation. The Jays starters come into the series ranked 5th in the AL in Ks (300), 2nd in OBP (.298) and ERA (3.58) and 1st in batting average against (.230) and WHIP (1.20). Toronto’s total staff ERA also currently stands second-best in the AL at 3.68.
Also, it’s no secret that the O’s hosts have a ton of firepower in their ranks as well. Toronto comes into the clash against the Birds tied for 7th in runs per game (4.18) and 4th in HR (78).
Leading the charge for the Blue Jays is the familiar dynamic trio of reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson (.255, 12 2B, 14 HR, 33 RBI), two-time All-Star and perennial slugger Edwin Encarnacion (.237, 13 2B, 12 HR, 46 RBI) and last but not least, six-time All-Star Jose Bautista (.227, 14 2B, 12 HR, 39 RBI).
29-year-old Canadian Michael Saunders (.290, 14 2B, 9 HR, 19 RBI) is also putting together a solid campaign; much better than five-time All-Star Troy Tulowitzki’s miserable season so far (.204, 6 2B, 8 HR, 23 RBI).
We’ll also see a battle between two All-Star caliber closers: Zach Britton (18 saves, 1.07 ERA, 0.63 WHIP) and 21-year-old up-and-comer Roberto Osuna (27 games, 13 saves, 1.65 ERA), but the bullpens are far apart overall – the Orioles bullpen ranks first in the AL with a 2.65 ERA, while the Jays bullpen comes in at 11th with a 3.94 ERA.
But what is certain is that this will be an important four-game series on the road when it is all said and done. The Orioles could put the Jays in a deep early deficit in the standings with a series win, and with the team still buzzing from their latest excellent showing at Camden Yards, I wouldn’t bet against it.
On the other hand, the Jays know if they can take three-of-four from the first place Orioles, they are right back on the heels of the division leaders. And by the way they handled the Sox and Yankees recently, I wouldn’t put it past them either.
This should be an exciting four-game set to watch unfold over the weekend.
