For the second consecutive year here at ESR, we decided to have a little fun and try to predict the Orioles’ Opening Day lineup. I started this exercise several years ago at my old blog, and it’s become a bit of a tradition.
I asked followers of ESR on Twitter (@EutawStReport) to submit their predictions for the O-pening Day lineup. For the sake of argument, we’re assuming that Manny Machado will NOT be ready for Opening Day. While we all certainly hope he is, Manny can take all the time he needs and more. He’ll be manning the hot corner before we know it, and there’s no sense in rushing him back.
Even without Manny in the lineup, the Birds offense looks quite formidable, as becomes very evident below, with the lineup actually staring us in the face.
Good luck, AL East pitching.
The following folks were kind enough to participate and you should go follow them all IMMEDIATELY:
In addition to the above Tweeps, some of our ESR staff participated as well. I threw my own (sure-to-be-wrong) guess in, and several of our outstanding writers, Ryan Blake (@BaltimoreBlake_), Klay Sauers (@ksauersESR), and Paul Valle (@PaulValleIII) were all kind enough to submit predictions.
To top it all off, we had a Birdland celebrity participant, the voice of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Ryan Wagner himself.
That gave us a grand total of 17 predictions to sort through. Unfortunately, some extenuating circumstances this year made things a little bit more difficult than in years past.
First, the good news: there were seven Orioles that, of course, appeared on every single prediction: Nick Markakis, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nelson Cruz, and Ryan Flaherty (remember, no Manny).
If Machado was healthy, there would have been eight unanimous Birds, and things would have been pretty easy from there.
Without Manny though, we have two more slots to fill – second base (vacated in favor of 3B by Flaherty) and left field.
In addition, another oddity is that this year the Birds are facing a lefty on Opening Day – Boston southpaw Jon Lester.
Now, some folks factored this into their predictions; others did not. In the past, this exercise of predicting the Opening Day lineup has been more of a “predict the everyday lineup.” The lefty on the hill throws a bit of a wrench into that. Still, since I DID ask folks to predict the OPENING DAY lineup, and not the EVERYDAY lineup, I had to make an executive decision or two.
Thus, despite the fact that he appeared in nine of the 17 predictions, I won’t be including David Lough in our consensus lineup. I just can’t see Buck Showalter giving Lough the nod against Lester. Although Lough hit lefties and righties about the same last year (.718 OPS vs. RHP, .745 vs. LHP), Buck has only given him one AB against LHP all spring, compared to 22 against RHP.
With guys like, say, Steve Pearce, Nolan Reimold, and/or Delmon Young at his disposal, Showalter isn’t likely to pencil in Lough on March 31. While Lough may very well end up in the “everyday” lineup against RHP, we’re going to restrict the spirit of this discussion to Opening Day only. Sorry, David.
Boring (and completely unscientific) explanations aside, here were the results:
1. Nick Markakis – RF
Markakis was leading off in 11 of the 17 lineups submitted, hitting second in five, and seventh in one.
2. J.J. Hardy – SS
Hardy was in every prediction, appearing in the #2 hole in six, #5 in one, #6 in six, #7 in three, and #8 in one.
3. Adam Jones – CF
AJ was obviously in all 17 predictions, where he was third in seven, fourth in nine, and second in one. However…
4. Chris Davis – 1B
Crush was the #3 hitter in nine, cleanup in seven, and fifth in one.
If we go by mean result, the lineup goes Jones/Davis (3.47 vs. 3.53). If we go with mode, it’s Davis/Jones. Mean it is.
5. Nelson Cruz – DH
Things get a bit easier here. Cruz was the #5 hitter in 16/17 predictions (way to be difficult, DAVE.) Of the folks who specified where Cruz was playing, the vast majority had him at DH (I guess they don’t believe Buck’s assertion that he’s going to try to keep Cruz in the field as often as possible).
6. Matt Wieters – C
Wieters was in every prediction, hitting sixth in 11 and seventh in the remaining six.
7. Nolan Reimold – LF
We still need a left fielder. With Lough out, the remaining options submitted were Reimold, Pearce, and Young. Nolan was in three of the submissions, compared to two each for Young and Pearce.
#REIMTIME
8. Ryan Flaherty – 3B
Flash was in all 17 submissions, hitting ninth in eight, eighth in seven, seventh in one and second in one. We have him in the 8 hole here, in order to keep Buck’s right/left/right alternation going, because our number nine hitter is…
9. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
Schoop was in 13 of the 17 lineups submitted, compared to four for his next closest competition at second, Jemile Weeks. He was hitting ninth in six, eighth in four, seventh in two, and second in one. With Markakis leading off, Flaherty eighth and Schoop ninth would make the most sense at the bottom.
Others receiving votes:
David Lough – As discussed above, Lough was in nine of the submissions, batting either leadoff, second, eighth, or ninth.
Jemile Weeks – Weeks was only in four of the submissions, but if Schoop doesn’t make the team out of Spring Training, he’ll very likely be playing on March 31. All the lineups that didn’t have Schoop had Weeks.
Steve Pearce – Pearce was in two of the submissions, batting seventh in both. If Buck puts Cruz in LF, Pearce will probably get the nod at DH over Reimold.
Delmon Young – The former ALCS MVP was in just two ballots, hitting eighth in one and seventh in one.
We’ll all find out how accurate we were in our predictions in less than two weeks!
Man I’m ready to trade snowballs for baseballs…
Post your prediction in the comments.
photos: Craig Landefeld
One Response
I’d probably prefer Pearce over Reimold in left field as well.