Reality: JJ Hardy is officially listed as Day-to-Day with a strained right hamstring.
Perception: Hardy missed six games earlier this season with back spasms. Now, he has a hamstring issue which could linger. He was pulled from the game Sunday and missed Monday’s game. I’m guessing he also misses tonight’s series opener in Toronto.
The issue with Hardy’s injuries are their type. If he broke his arm, you let it heal, rehab and then you are fine. With back spasms and hamstrings, they could linger for the entire season or even the rest of his career. Hardy could turn into the next Brian Roberts. The fewest games he’s played in a season since coming to Baltimore was 129 in 2011. He played in 158 and 159 games the last two seasons, numbers that were already unreachable for him in 2014 after just a couple weeks.
I think a bigger issue is that if Hardy has to miss significant time by going on the DL, the Orioles could really struggle. Jemile Weeks would probably be called up from Norfolk, but do Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, Steve Lombardozzi, and Weeks really scare anyone (other than O’s fans, that is)? Besides a couple of games, those guys at the bottom of the lineup have struggled at the plate and have committed all the errors the Orioles have, except one by David Lough which came Sunday night. Even in that case, many have said it was Schoop who made the mistake, not Lough.
Thankfully, Manny Machado appears nearly ready to come back to the O’s, perhaps by early next month. If he does, that will help the Birds dramatically. His defense at third is second to none and his offense will provide a boost as well. He may not provide quite the spark that he did when he was first called up in 2012, but “The Manny Effect” could be similar here in 2014.
Reality: Chris Davis has lost the crush in April.
Perception: Davis only has one home run through the first 18 games and a lot of people getting really worried about him. I agree that there are a few at-bats so far this season where he looks lost and is swinging for the fences and whiffing. His 20 strike outs aren’t encouraging. On the other hand, he does have a .390 OBP, and his .367 SLG, while nearly 400 points lower than at this time a year ago, will certainly improve.
When you compare that to last April, there is some cause for concern. In 27 games last April, Davis had nine homers, hit .348/.442/.728 SLG, and had 25 K’s. Obviously his slugging percentage will be higher last season with all those home runs, but his batting average and on-base percentage have dropped as well. Surprisingly, he’s on pace for the same amount of strike outs.
But I will say… you can tell that pitchers are working Davis a lot differently than they did last year. Last year, he had no track record of hitting with consistent power, so pitchers would go right after him. This year, they are definitely pitching around him more, and Davis has been swinging at some bad pitches.
Let’s hope that turns around in Toronto. According to Roch Kubatko, “Davis has a career .356 batting average with 12 doubles, seven home runs and 19 RBIs in 25 games in Toronto. He has 19 doubles, 20 homers and 50 RBIs in 63 games against the Blue Jays.”
Reality: The Orioles are 7-5 with three games left in a stretch of 15 straight games against the AL East.
Perception: I think most of us agreed that before this run of divisional games (previously 16 but one game was rained out) that if the Orioles could have finished these games at least .500 we would have been happy. Just one win in the three-game series in Toronto will guarantee the Orioles a .500 division stretch, but if that’s all they get, they would fall to 10-11 on the season. So, as you hope for every series throughout the season, if the Orioles can take two of three the Birds would stay above .500 for the season and go 9-6 during this 15-game divisional stretch… a very good first month for the team, especially considering the lack of both Manny and home runs.
In a division separated by just 2.0 games from first to last, keeping pace by staying above .500 in the division will be key.
photo: Craig Landefeld
