The MLB trade deadline is about a month away and as of right now, this deadline is very unsettled. Usually by now, you have a good idea of who the sellers will be, and while we can identify a handful (who do not have much to sell), for the most part, there is a lot of unknown right now.
The new rules have helped some of the younger, more athletic teams and of course additional playoff teams give more clubs incentive to “go for it.” Between that and no team in either central division being that good, we currently have 19 within five games of a playoff position.
On top of that, you have big spenders like the Mets and Padres in the midst of disappointing seasons, but selling off may be tough for them to do, outside of a few pieces.
Suffice it to say, the unsettled nature of this deadline and the competitiveness around the league will cause this to be a seller’s market. While more sellers will come forward, it still will likely be a tough deadline to get the players you want without overpaying.
How should the Orioles approach this deadline?
They are a team with a great record but a mediocre run differential, meaning the margin for error is small, despite the W-L record. They have a lot of positional talent, some of which will need to get dealt in the coming months, and they have a need for pitching. It’s pretty apparent that they will likely do something, but what should they do and how should they approach it?
There is no such thing as an untouchable player, but I also feel that there are guys who should only be available under certain circumstances. As of today, I don’t see any of those circumstances coming to fruition.
In other words, the talent that is rumored to be available does not justify trading certain players. For varying reasons, the players (and I am leaving off the obvious MLB players) that I am not trading are: Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday, Jud Fabian, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser. Now, some of these names I would make available if players not currently rumored to be available become available, but again, this is based off of what we are hearing as of right now.
Not everyone will agree with that list, but they are my “untouchables” for what is rumored to be available. Now, that still leaves several top 100 prospects and a few other potential top 100 players to-be, not to mention other good prospects that would be in most teams’ top 10 but because of the O’s depth, they fall well outside of Baltimore’s top 10. I feel that the Orioles can get deals done for what they need with this group of players.
Baltimore also has some MLB players who could be part of deals, especially if the speculation about buyer-to-buyer trades being possible comes true. While we don’t normally see these types of trades, the lack of sellers makes it possible. I would imagine if we see this, it will be more AL dealing with NL as opposed to intra-league deals.
There is also the question of going for a rental player as opposed someone with multiple years of control. As of now, most players rumored to be available are rentals. I am fine with that. I personally would prefer a rental unless, as I mentioned before, someone(s) becomes available that isn’t rumored as of now.
I like the idea of a rental because they should be cheaper (both in terms of dollars and players). Also, knowing that pitching is the target, I feel like Mike Elias has some good options long-term with John Means, GRod, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells all but penned into the 2024 rotation. This offseason will see a lot of quality arms available in free agency and most of them are guys who should be had for shorter (three years or fewer) contracts, which is where Elias seems to want to be. I prefer the idea of trading less now and just spending money in the offseason, as opposed to trading top pieces now for what may be a marginal at best upgrade.
So, to overpay for a guy like Dylan Cease, who has had a rocky year and has some walk issues but has high upside, isn’t that appealing to me. I do think the O’s need to add a starter, but the rentals like Lucas Gioloto should be good enough.
On top of that, I feel a bigger need is another back end bullpen arm. Bullpens have become very important in the playoffs. The O’s were on the forefront of that trend in 2012 and 2014, and it was really cemented by the Royals’ 2015 championship team. To be able to make these six or seven-inning games would be huge, so I am hoping they target bullpen reinforcements.
The Orioles are where they are in large part because of Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, but we are seeing chinks Cano’s armor since his immaculate start to 2023. While Danny Coloumbe has also been good, I feel adding another elite arm is necessary.
I think we also have to consider how well the Orioles are developing these arms and how OPACY is playing much more pitcher friendly. It makes it easier to find good arms when you can develop better and have a park that plays to their strenghs. It’s like having a great offensive line. You can get away with a lesser running back because they make anyone look better.
I have to think all of this is on the mind of Elias as he approaches this deadline. Who do you trade and how do you stay the path for the long term when you are trying to win right now? And make no mistake about it: that should be the goal now.
While we all believe the competitive window is wide open, you never know when it will slam shut. Just ask the White Sox.
Luckily for the O’s, they have so much depth and talent that they can both win now and remain mindful of the future. That’s not easy to do, but since Elias has done such a great job of building the organization and the system, this luxury is there for him.
