Adam Jones said this about the “breakthrough” of the Orioles’ offense after their 14-5 win over the Yankees on Tuesday:
“It wasn’t about breaking out, man. It was about continuously doing what we do, swing the bats,” he said. “Some days you get them, some days you don’t. Today we got them. Now, it’s over with. Tomorrow we have to come out and do the same exact thing with the same approach.”
How has that approach been working exactly?
The Orioles were ranked 10th in the American League in runs (43), 3rd in AVG (.259), 13th in OBP (.302), 7th in SLG (.383) and 11th in OPS (.686) heading into Sunday.
Take away those 14 runs in that win over the Yankees and the Orioles are averaging 2.9 runs per game of offense in every other game before and since.
Clearly this is not going to work when you have a pitching staff giving up 3.9 runs per game, which was to be expected. We knew the Orioles would likely have average pitching (slightly above average at best), but we thought the offense would be there to back them.
So what’s the problem? Well let’s look at that approach that was touted by Jones.
The Orioles swing their bats, that’s for sure. According to Fangraphs, they have swung at 51.1% of pitches, easily tops in the AL. The Orioles also have the highest percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone in the AL at 35.9% and the lowest base on ball percentage (BB%) at 5.8%.
Comparing that to April 2013, when the Orioles’ offense was clicking, they swung at 45.7% of pitches with only 29.6% of those being out of the strike zone with a BB% of 8.3%.
In the second half of last season however, the Orioles swung at 47.9% of pitches, with 33.5% of those out of the strike zone and had a BB% of 7.3%. Comparing those statistics, it looks like the Orioles are using an even more aggressive approach than the one they used in the second half to try to win games than that instead of what led them to success last April. Considering how they performed in the second half, it’s pretty strange to see them think that would have better results by being more aggressive at the plate.
The worst part is that “be aggressive” is the advice that’s being given to our younger hitters. I already mentioned what Jim Presley said to Ryan Flaherty to try to get him out of his slump, but what Jones said that he told Schoop when he was slumping also made me cringe:
“I told Schoop, I said, ‘Hey, keep going up there hacking. Look for your pitch and hack. Whatever you’re hearing, let it go. Go up, see a pitch, get it and don’t miss it, put a good swing on it. Strike out, that’s part of the game. Trust me, I’m going to strike out a lot, too. I’m going to go up there and swing the bat. You’ve got too much talent to go up there and be passive. Go up there and enjoy yourself.’”
“Hack?” Not go watch some video, or work on hitting certain pitches in the cage, or come up with some sort of plan of attack for each pitcher? Nope, just “hack.”
Hacking admittedly has worked for Jones, and other MLB players like Robinson Cano, but those guys have extraordinary talent to punish fastballs over the plate. Schoop isn’t close to being that type of player yet and if anything he needs to learn more plate discipline otherwise he’ll never get anything good to hit over the plate.
Case in point: he leads the Orioles with swinging at 52.9% of pitches outside the strike zone and is 2nd in the American League for hitters with at least 30 plate appearances. The Orioles also have seven of their hitters in the top 25, more than any other team by far.
The book is out on the Orioles and has been since the 2nd half of last season: don’t throw them anything over the middle of the plate and make them get themselves out by being too aggressive by swinging at stuff outside the zone. It’s worked pretty well for the rest of the American League thus far.
The Orioles must adapt otherwise they may keep swinging or hacking away, but they will also continue to fall further behind in the AL East.
