The Orioles are off to a 16-8 start, which is second best in the AL. They have been benefactors of an easy schedule in the first month, with seven more “easy games” left with Detroit and KC, starting this evening. They have done a great job of taking advantage of this schedule and I believe this trend will continue over the next seven games as well.
Offensively, there are a lot of positives. The O’s are 9th in the league in runs scored, 8th in OBP, 11th in wOBA, 7th in wRC+, 12th in slugging, 3rd in steals, 4th in BBs and 6th best in total Ks. Overall, the offense has been very good.
On the mound, the starters haven’t been as good. They are below average in basically every major category although I do think that there is hope for improvement from some of these guys. Grayson Rodriguez continues to show signs of progress and Kyle Gibson and especially Tyler Wells have been very steady early on. Kyle Bradish shows great stuff but not enough consistency yet and Dean Kremer has struggled. They’ve gotten nothing from Cole Irvin, which resulted in him being sent down to AAA Norfolk, where he has continued to struggle.
The same cannot be said about the bullpen, which is 3rd in ERA, 8th in K rate, 2nd(!) in BB rate, 7th in HR rate, 1st in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. All of this despite Mychal Givens and Dillon Tate being hurt and Cionel Perez, the supposed setup man entering the year, performing poorly. But, Yennier Cano has come out of nowhere to dominate every hitter he has seen, while Danny Coulumbe has one of the best StatCast profiles you will ever see and has been a revelation after not being much more than a dime a dozen reliever his whole career. Bryan Baker continues to look great and Felix Bautista has been a stud and may be the best closer in the sport right now.
While the starters haven’t been great, outside of that recent 35-ish inning run, they have kept the team in most games, the bullpen has shut down the opposing offense, and the O’s bats have been able to climb back late and grab some wins.
The biggest disappointment this year has easily been the defense, and that has unquestionably led to some of the aforementioned pitching issues. Gunnar Henderson, who I feel they need to stop moving around, has been terrible at third base – although I will say I am not worried about it. I think its just some mental hurdles that he has to clear right now.
Elsewhere on the infield, Ryan Mountcastle is off to a bad start defensively, despite being one of the better defensive first baseman last year according to OAA. Adam Frazier, who is coming off a +6 OAA season, is at -1 OAA. His signing continues to look awful, as you at least felt his defense would be above average but that has yet to be the case. Jorge Mateo continues to look excellent defensively at short although he has had some errant throws himself.
The outfield defense has been atrocious. Austin Hays, who is extremely overrated defensively by O’s fans and announcers, is already at -3 OAA. Cedric Mullins has struggled at times and gotten poor jumps and Anthony Santander doesn’t belong in the field unless it’s an emergency start or something like that. Even Ryan McKenna, a very good defensive player, has had some bad gaffes out there.
This is something I talked about in the offseason. I felt the defense, especially the outfield defense, needed to improve, and they didn’t do anything about it.
This defense and starting pitching cannot continue to be this poor once they get into the tough part of the schedule. Once the O’s are done with KC, I believe they have the 6th toughest schedule in MLB going forward.
So, what can they do about this?
Well, they made the first move today when they recalled Joey Ortiz and sent down Terrin Vavra. Vavra isn’t an MLB player if he can’t show any power. We all love the approach at times, and we love the OBP he showed in the minors, but if he can’t hit for power, he will be challenged and that OBP will be low in the majors. He isn’t that fast and the defense isn’t very good, so his calling card must be his bat. With no power, he won’t even have that. We will see if he can change that since he did at least hit doubles in the minors.
But for now, getting Ortiz up here is the right move…if he plays.
Ortiz is someone I wanted on this team from day 1. Now, to be fair, Mateo is off to an amazing start and he has made the decision to stick with him look very good thus far. Whether or not he can keep up anything close to this remains to be seen, but Ortiz should be here. He brings a glove that may be the best on the team and he has really hit well over the last year. He was a 4th round pick in 2019 and because of COVID and a shoulder injury, he really didn’t start to hit until last year. Some wondered if it was fluky, but he has silenced those concerns this year.
Now, is he up for good? Is he going to play? Is this just for the weekend because they’re facing three lefty starters? We shall see, but he should play most days.
The Orioles should not stop here though. While I was upset that they didn’t give Kyle Stowers the chance he deserved, right now, the outfielder to call up is Colton Cowser. Cowser, who is absolutely destroying baseballs and walking a lot over the last three weeks, is a far better defensive player than what the O’s have out there now. He should be out there improving the defense and giving the lineup another patient hitter with good power upside.
And lastly, they should also get Jordan Westburg up here. Westburg is also scorching hot in AAA and he was very good last year as well. It’s time. Between Westburg and Ortiz (not to mention what else is in the organization), we really see why the Frazier signing was so bad. These guys need to play and Frazier is essentially guaranteed 400+ at bats unless he is hurt or traded. They are not going to eat the $8M in salary and they aren’t going to relegate him to playing once a week or less. He is taking at bats from other better, younger players.
Some might be reading this and saying, “the team is 16-8, why would you mess with anything?”
I think that would be a fair question to ask. After all, it is working. That said, just because something is going well, doesn’t mean it’s perfect and it doesn’t mean that you wait for things to go bad before you make moves.
Obviously, if the O’s bring these guys up, someone has to go down. First of all, they could send down Ryan O’Hearn. He really serves no purpose, and the team should have enough guys that can be a backup first baseman. After that, since they won’t admit their mistake and cut Frazier, they should send down McKenna. Now, I like McKenna and feel he is a very good 5th outfielder but someone has to go and he makes the most sense since he has an option.
The key here would be that all of these guys play. The Orioles don’t have anyone who should be playing every day. Gunnar is probably going to be the closest (Adley Rutschman needs days off) but even he is struggling and has been terrible against lefties, so he too can get the occasional day off.
There is no reason that Brandon Hyde can’t have a rotation that fits all of these guys in, playing them four or five games a week. The Orioles love the idea of versatility. Well, use it to your advantage and play these guys everywhere and get them in the lineup. The defense will be better. The offense, especially after an adjustment period (Cowser and Westburg has especially started off slow as they moved up the ladder), will be better. They will be faster and younger and can prepare these guys for the long term.
As the season goes on, O’s fans can hope that they cut bait with Frazier and that in the likely event that they need a starter, that they go out and get one (Eduardo Rodriguez is a name to watch there). These are further moves that will be needed to improve the rotation and the offense.
James McCann was quoted as saying he has never been in a spring training camp with as much talent, from top to bottom, as what he saw this spring. Maybe that is recency bias. Maybe that is him talking out of his ass. But there is no doubt this organization is loaded with talent and many of these guys are ready to come up right now to help. Not only that, but there is more to come as the year goes on. Instead of giving at bats to some of the young guys they have been (like Vavra), and instead of pretending that many of the vet bats on the team are actually everyday players (because many are not), let’s give this talent, the talent that Mike Elias praises every chance he gets, a real chance to make a difference on a team that is looking more and more like a legit contender.
Step 1 happened today.
Let’s keep up the momentum, trust these kids and bring even more excitement to Camden Yards this summer.
