After an injury-riddled 91-win season, the Orioles will start the playoffs against the Kansas City Royals in the wild card round. While many O’s fans did not want to play Detroit (especially Tarik Skubal), I would have preferred them over the Royals. The Tigers have been playing well but they have also been lucky and outside of Skubal, they do not have anyone you really worry about. The Royals have a far better run differential, have arguably the best all-around player in the sport in Bobby Witt Jr., and they have the better and deeper starting rotation. To be fair, Detroit has the better bullpen but for KC, midseason acquisition Lucas Erceg is a very good high-leverage reliever, and former top prospect Daniel Lynch has been elite against lefties out of the pen.
The current Royals lineup has 122 at bats against Corbin Burnes, the Game 1 starter. In those 122 at bats, the Royals have a combined OPS of 598. Burnes has eight games of postseason experience but only two starts, and his last postseason start, last year against Arizona, did not go well. That said, this is a good matchup on paper. What worries me about this KC team, offensively, is that they do not strike out a lot. They like to put the ball in play (sound familiar…2014?) and those types of teams have given the O’s fits this year. Also, Burnes has struggled containing the run game and KC is 11th in the league in stolen bases with three players with over 30 steals. Obviously, keeping them off the bases will be key for Burnes and in his career, he has done that against this group of Royals players.
All of that said, this is exactly why you got Burnes last offseason. He is supposed to be that Game 1 guy who puts the team on his back and shuts down the opponent. The Orioles need him to set the tone and continue the dominant run he has been on this month.
Opposing Burnes Tuesday is Cole Ragans. The O’s saw Ragans twice in April. The first time, in Baltimore, he shut them down to the tune of one hit over 6.1 with seven strikeouts. A couple weeks later in Kansas City, the O’s knocked him around with seven earned runs on nine hits in just 1.2 IP, easily his worst outing of the season. How the Orioles approach this game will be interesting. Ragans is a reverse splits guy. Lefties have an OPS well over 100 points higher than righties. The Orioles tend to ignore splits and just go with matchups, so we will see how they operate. No one on the O’s has many at bats vs Ragans. Adley Rutschman has four hits in six at bats with one walk. He has done the best but like I said, it’s all a small sample size for everyone. Ragans is one of the best starters in the league but obviously this is a different type of pressure on him, so we will see how he reacts.
As of now, the Orioles have not officially announced their Game 2 starter. The assumption is that it will be Zach Eflin. This current group of Royals hitters has 99 at bats against Eflin and they have a 792 OPS, including a slugging of 475. If Eflin pitches Game 2, that means he can only start one game in the ALDS, should the team gets there. If the Orioles win Game 1, would they hold back Eflin and see if Dean Kremer can win Game 2 against Seth Lugo, who has been excellent this year?
This KC team has 63 at bats against Kremer with a 542 OPS. So, you could argue that Kremer is the better guy to throw Wednesday. On the other hand, Kremer has also been good against the Yankees as well (although I am not sure he is the guy you want going against Juan Soto and Aaron Judge twice in five days. That said, it’s an interesting thought and I don’t think it’s a slam dunk you go with Eflin in Game 2. Obviously it sounds like the O’s agree, at least as of now.
As for Lugo, the current O’s team only has 32 at bats against him but they do have an OPS of 1175 in those appearances. He has had an excellent season, and his September has been elite. Now, he has also thrown way more innings in 2024 than he ever has and while he isn’t showing signs of a drop-off, that is something that could come at any moment.
If the series goes three games, the current O’s lineup has also beat up Michael Wacha. They have 107 at bats vs Wacha and a collective OPS of 1025, including a slugging of 692. They have 18 extra base hits, including 10 homers against Wacha. You would obviously like that matchup heading into the game, but Wacha has had a very good season and his September ERA is 2.60, so he is coming in hot.
In addition to being a good running team, the Royals are very good defensively. They lead all of MLB in OAA (led by Witt), are 2nd in UZR, 4th in UZR/150 and 7th in DRS. Offensively, they are 13th in runs scored, 10th in BA, 12th in slugging and 14th in wOBA. They are also only 19th in OBP and 20th in wRC+. So, I think it’s fair to call them an average offense, but they have guys that can hurt you.
The Royals had a better run differential than the O’s this year BUT that is skewed somewhat by the White Sox. The Royals are 12-1 against Chicago with a run differential of +43. That means they are under .500 against the rest of the league, although they still have a +48 run differential, which tells you that they have been a little unlucky if you look at what their pythag theorem record would be in that case.
This isn’t likely going to be an easy series. The Orioles have a clear issue with the bullpen. Luckily, KC does as well and while I think KC is better at the top, the Orioles are likely deeper. KC does have several lefties, so the matchups for Baltimore’s lineup could be an issue. Can the Orioles keep their running game in check? Can they not allow Witt and Sal Perez to beat them? Can they get into that KC bullpen? Those are going to be the keys to this series.
I think the Orioles will find a way to win this series, but they will be nail-biting games. This is going to be edge of your seat type stuff. Being at home will hopefully be an immense help. Let’s hope the fans pack the yard and are loud. The Orioles haven’t won a playoff game, much less a series, in a decade, so they need all the extra help they can get.
In the words of former Raven Bart Scott….”Can’t wait.”
