In a bit of surprise move, the Orioles made their third trade leading up to the deadline today, sending both Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to Miami in exchange for starting pitcher Trevor Rogers.
We definitely expected at least one of Norby or Stowers to be dealt, and possibly both. They’re overdue, if anything. However, the recent injury to Jorge Mateo made it seem a bit more likely they’d hang onto Norby until the offseason, at least. The surprise is who they got in return. Most O’s fans and analysts expected it to be one of the bigger names, like Jack Flaherty, or if the deal was with the Marlins, a reliever like Andrew Nardi or Tanner Scott. Some held onto hope that those two Birds prospects could be packaged to get a Tarik Skubal or Garret Crochet, but that was likely always a pipe dream.
Rogers, 26, finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021 when he was also an All-Star. Since then, however, he’s battled injuries to his back, to his lat, to his bicep, and those have sapped his previous velocity. Despite that, he’s still been a decent back-end starter for the Marlins, and though his ERA is currently a very mediocre 4.53 in 21 starts, he’s allowed two ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, lowering his ERA from 6.15 on May 1 down to where it sits now (he’s at 3.56 over five starts in July).
This Trevor Rogers start always sticks in my head.
No it wasn't from his dominant 2021.
This was September 2022 and it lost me a playoff matchup in fantasy baseball.
This is the form O's are seeking, less than two years ago.https://t.co/JTb90jH0C7
— O's Observations (@AngelusNovus3) July 30, 2024
Adding to the plus side of the ledger is that Rogers is not a rental by any means; he doesn’t hit free agency until 2027. So the O’s add a young, controllable arm to a staff that has big question marks in 2025 with Corbin Burnes set to become a free agent, and Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells all having undergone recent elbow surgeries.
When viewed from that lens, the trade makes sense. They gave up two guys who were blocked, and who probably should have been traded at least six months ago, for a starting pitcher who can be in the rotation for the next two-plus seasons.
However, that’s a move with the long-term future in mind. Much of Birdland has much more immediate goals in mind for a team that, though struggling for the past six weeks, still holds a lead in the AL East. Barring a catastrophic collapse, this team will be playing games in October. As such, fans wanted pieces like Stowers and Norby dealt, yes, but to address pressing issues such as the gaping hole that remains in the bullpen, or to bring in another front-line starter. Not for a guy who’s likely at best a 4-5 in 2024, and who you hope to “fix” so he can become a 2-3 once again.
I get it. It’s frustrating for the GM to be looking ahead to 2025-6 when we’re so desperately hungry to win a World Series in 2024, for the first time in 41 years. But Mike Elias has to weigh both priorities, and word is that the pitching market has gotten ridiculous over the past couple days. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper says the O’s paid, basically, what the Astros paid for a couple months of Yusei Kikuchi.
Norby and Stowers will get the everyday shots they deserve. Rogers gets a chance to rejuvenate his career on a contender. Let’s hope it works out for all parties.
