Last week, we discussed some prospects who could get moved at the deadline. In that article, I talked about how this deadline could go for the Orioles. To recap, this trade deadline is lacking talent, and many teams will lack the motivation to move talented players. The extra playoff spot and the bad AL Central have caused a mess of mediocre teams to think they are in it. This can cause asking prices to skyrocket for the more popular players on the trade block.
Critical and out-of-the-box thinking is needed in a deadline like this, and Mike Elias might have tipped his hand with his recent move. Shintaro Fujinami was a move that came out of nowhere. On the surface, it was perplexing, but then fans started to look a little deeper. Fuji’s bad ERA was caused by his horrid April and when he was used as a starter. His numbers have improved since being moved to the bullpen, and he has already shown some impressive stuff for the O’s. Yes, he gave up a home run that barely left the yard on Friday night, and struggled with control on Saturday, but the stuff is pure filth, and has the potential to fit well in the backend of the Bullpen.
Analytical thinking like that will lead to the most realistic outcomes at this deadline for the Orioles.
So today, here are the five candidates for the Orioles that would help them make a push for the playoffs/World Series.
We will be using Baseball Trade Values’ Trade simulator as a way to help gauge the value of the Players, and the trades will be posted in their respective sections.
Also, if you haven’t read my piece from last week (linked in the opening sentence above), I encouraged you do because I laid down the groundwork of who I consider available and who I don’t.
For this piece, the trades are centered around back end bullpen help and starting pitching. It is too complicated to see where an offensive piece fits in this deadline with so many prospects and moving parts, so the focus is on strengthening this bullpen and rotation.
Let’s get to it:
Orioles get RHP Jason Foley: Tigers receive 2B Connor Norby and LHP D.L. Hall
The Orioles receive one of the better relievers on the block, and while this isn’t the out-of-the-box thinking Fuji was, Jason Foley fits the same type of mold. He has been great for the Tigers this year, and while he has missed some time, he is still rocking a respectable 2.33 ERA, and the advanced metrics back him up (2.24 FIP). He also hasn’t given up a long ball this year. This is due to his power sinker, which he uses to get a ton of soft contact. Foley is another Yennier Cano type, while Fuji fits that Felix Bautista type. Another thing about Foley is his controllability, as he isn’t a free agent until 2028, five years from now.
Because of his success and controllability, he won’t be cheap. Foley will cost Connor Norby and D.L. Hall. Norby is a great player who is blocked right now, and Hall is still not pitching. Foley would give the O’s another arm out of the bullpen and help shorten games even more.
While this may be expensive, it is worth it for Foley. This would be a great move for Elias.
Orioles get LHP Tarik Skuba: Tigers get SS Joey Ortiz and RHP Dean Kremer
I tried to go further out of the box for this one. Tarik Skubal isn’t that big of a name, but he has been slowly getting better for the Tigers. What makes him an interesting case is that he hasn’t pitched much this year as he is recovering from offseason surgery. He has only pitched in three games this year, and while he has a high ERA at 5.25, he has a 1.95 FIP, and has struck out fourteen batters and only walked three in those three games. The problem with acquiring a starter at the deadline is that they have to be a clear upgrade over whatever the O’s have this year.
Here comes more thinking that isn’t traditional, because Dean Kremer is going in this move. Dean has been inconsistent as anything this year. He can have solid starts but also implode on the mound. He pitches through a ton of traffic, and that kind of pitching is begging to put you down big in a playoff series. Joey Ortiz is another prospect that, for some reason, the O’s just don’t seem enthusiastic about. He continues to crush Triple-A pitching but can’t buy an at-bat in the majors. So he goes in this deal as well. Skubal is also controllable, not being a free agent until 2027.
While Skubal isn’t the frontline starter most people think about, he is a very talented pitcher that gives you that upside and is a lefty, which the O’s don’t have in their current rotation.
Orioles get LHP Jordan Montgomery: Cardinals receive OF Dylan Beavers, LHP Drew Rom, 3B Max Wagner
Jordan Montgomery might be the best rental starter on the market this year. He has a good ERA at 3.14 and a solid FIP at 3.47. He would be the third best pitcher in the O’s rotation, and while it would become crowded with Grayson Rodriguez still here, they can figure it out.
Dylan Beavers is the one that hurts the most to give up in the deal. He has been on fire since June and also shows the power off. Drew Rom is a good piece in a rotation but is blocked. Max Wagner is another interesting case, but he is also blocked by a ton of talent ahead of him. While giving up this much for a rental is tough, Montgomery has been in the AL East before and has successfully pitched here. That adds a specific value – the human element – that can’t be tracked through a trade simulator.
Montgomery would be a great piece for the Orioles.
Orioles get RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Joe Kelly: White Sox get OF Jud Fabian
This is the one I feel the worst about. Lucas Giolito has been solid but certainly not the pitcher he was supposed to be, and Joe Kelly has a very high ERA and a negative value. The thinking with this one is that Giolito is a project to fix. If other analytical-minded teams like the Dodgers, Rays, or Astros are interested in him, then there is likely something there that the White Sox can’t unlock. Can the O’s?
Kelly would be a throw-in piece, and his ERA is high because he has been bad as of late. Kelly would add that fire-breather mentality to the back end, though. The cost is only Jud Fabian, and yes, he is having a great season, but will not be ready until next year, and guys like Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser block him.
No doubt this gives me Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez vibes. Still, if the O’s believe they can help Giolito and get Kelly as a bonus, this will improve the rotation for this playoff run, and if it only costs one player, you have to feel good about that.
Orioles get Dylan Cease: White Sox receive LHP DL Hall, RHP Dean Kremer, SS Joey Ortiz
If you have been paying attention, there has been a severe lack of name impact on this list. This is because of the challenges of this deadline, but in this scenario, the White Sox finally wake up and realize that they stink and trade Dylan Cease to the one place where they can get the most on his return. Cease isn’t pitching up to the standards he set for himself with his performance last year, but again the White Sox are missing something to help out their pitchers. This is a haul for the White Sox, but they get a dude with potential in Hall, a decent starter in Kremer, and a guy who can play all over the infield in Ortiz. This is the market for highly touted pitchers; you aren’t getting this guy for scraps. Honestly, this feels like an off-season move rather than a deadline acquisition. Still, if the White Sox wake up, no other organization can offer the type of talent needed for a deal like this.
Hope this piece gave a better understanding of what it might cost to get these players. Now we have to sit back and watch Elias cook something special.
