The inspiration for this article is twofold. First and foremost, Fangraphs has recently posted their annual Trade Value Rankings where they rank the top fifty most valuable trade candidates for the entire MLB. Secondly, I was inspired to write this article by silly fans. There appears to be some misunderstanding in fandom about how valuable certain players are, and the result of these misunderstandings is that you have people proposing ridiculous trade scenarios like “Chris Davis for Cole Hamels!”

Below are my personal, subjective rankings of the top ten most valuable trade candidates for the Baltimore Orioles. For the sake of simplicity, I only included players from the 40-man roster so minor leaguers like Chance Sisco and Hunter Harvey, though they may be more valuable trade pieces than some on this list, are not included in these rankings.

The factors that play into these rankings are as follows: current and past performance, projected performance, age, position and contract (length and amount). With this in mind, I did not include anyone on the final year of their contract because I felt players signed for the next several years have much more value than a player signed just for a few more months. (Would you rather have Miguel Gonzalez for 2 ½ years or Wei-Yin Chen for ½ year? Personally, I’d choose Gonzalez and the years, and this ranking reflects that.)

All of the data in this article, including statistics and contract details were acquired from BaseballReference.com.

 

10. Brad Brach (Age: 29, Free Agent: 2019)

Brach has gotten better every year of his career and if he continues in that direction he will be a very valuable asset to the backend of the bullpen for years to come. He’s on pace this year to have his most game appearances, most innings pitched, and lowest ERA in 2015. Add all this to a strikeout ratio over 10 per nine innings and you have a guy you want to have on your team – and who other teams would value.

 

9. Christian Walker (Age 24, Free Agent: 2022)

Including minor leaguers can be tricky – this is why I only included players from the 40-man roster – but despite Walker’s prospect status he is on the 40-man roster so he needs to be on this list. He ranks third on the Orioles prospect list (only behind Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey; Harvey is not on the 40-man roster so not on this list). At this point it’s hard to tell how good Christian Walker will be. However, his age, potential, and being under team control for the foreseeable future makes Walker a valuable team asset.

 

8. Chris Tillman (Age 27, Free Agent 2018)

How high Tillman is ranked on this list is really based on how much (or how little) you value recent performance. In 2013 and 2014 he threw for over 200 innings and posted ERAs of 3.71 and 3.34 respectively, more than impressive numbers for a starter in your rotation. This year his ERA has ballooned to over 5 though some fringe statistics like FIP (over four in all but one year of his career) would say this regression was unavoidably coming. Still, a starting pitcher currently making only four million and under team control till 2018 is valuable.

 

7. Miguel Gonzalez (Age: 31, Free Agent: 2018)

At the age of 28, Miggy made his Major League debut a bit later than most players. As a result, he will not become a free agent till 2018. In every season, Gonzalez’s ERA has ended up below four. He has earned WAR of 2 or higher the past three years. There is a bit of concern that this year has been his worst year with the Orioles (though in fairness his career numbers show he pitches better in the second half of the season). The reason Gonzalez made this list is that good starting pitching is hard to find, and good, affordable starting pitching is near impossible. Miguel Gonzalez is a good starter at a very affordable price.

 

6. Dylan Bundy (Age 22, Free Agent: 2021)

This one is tricky. I just thought I would sneak Bundy somewhere in the middle of this list because he needs to be on here, but your guess is as good as mine for where he should be ranked. He’s younger than Kevin Gausman, Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop yet injuries have prevented Bundy from living up to expectations. Next year he will be out of options so one way or the other Oriole fans will finally get to see him on the major league roster. Now what he’ll do once he’s on said roster is an excellent question, so stay tuned.

 

5. Zach Britton (Age: 27, Free Agent: 2019)

Britton has found his calling as an MLB closer. With 60 saves over the past year and a half he has quickly risen to elite closer status, and this year has been is most dominant yet. Whether one looks at ERA (1.72) FIP (1.85) strikeouts per 9 (10.1) or a hundred other stats, all data points to Britton being one of the best late inning relievers in the game. Combine this with Britton’s relatively low salary of $3.2 million and not being a free agent until 2019 along with his relatively young age of 27, and all signs to a player that currently has very high value.

 

4. Kevin Gausman (Age 24, Free Agent: 2021)

His status may have dropped slightly since last year, but a young starter who can throw in the upper 90’s and is under team control until 2021 is still a valuable asset. He still hasn’t been given the opportunity to be a regular in the rotation. Hopefully, the Orioles will stop moving him and up and down and we can get a better picture of just how valuable he is.

 

3. Jonathan Schoop (Age 23, Free Agent 2020)

Though he has a short track record, what the Orioles have seen in Schoop makes him as one of their most valuable pieces. In his rookie season Schoop impressed both with his power at the plate and with his power arm at second base. Now Schoop, finally appears to be healthy and ready to prove that he can build on last year’s success. At the age of 23, the Orioles have reason to believe Schoop will be their starting second baseman for many seasons to come.

 

2. Adam Jones (Age: 29, Free Agent: 2019)

The Orioles’ most consistent hitter and arguably the most important player on the team must be near the top of this list. Jones has an impressive resume including five all-star appearances and four gold gloves. He has been a 2+ WAR player the past two years and is on pace to surpass 2 WAR yet again. One could assume based on age and past performance, that he will continue put up similar numbers over the length of his contract. This would give him a total value around 7 WAR for the remainder of his contract. The only downside is he is after this year he will be making $50 million over the next three years. Though this contract is by far the highest on this list, if he continues to perform at a high level, this is a very fair contract.

 

1. Manny Machado (Age: 23, Free Agent 2019)

Manny Machado is the Orioles’ most valuable trade candidate and it’s not even close. Based on his recent performance and the fact that he just turned 23, the phrase “the sky’s the limit” comes to mind. While currently one of the best players in all of baseball, he will be taking home a salary this year $548,000 (and no, I’m not missing any zeros). Young controllable talent is extremely important in building a winning team, and in Manny Machado the Orioles have all they could ask for.

 

All photos in this article: GulfBird Photo/Craig Landefeld