While it’s been an up-and-down first week and change for the Orioles, surprisingly, the most consistent aspect of the team has been the starting rotation, which currently ranks 5th in the AL in WAR (9th in MLB).
As of now, the Orioles 1-5 is: Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer & Cole Irvin.
There are only a few AL starters who have a Stuff+ grade of 110 or better and a Location+ grade of 105 or better on Fangraphs: Burnes (112 & 110), Rodriguez (113 & 106), Garret Crochet (113 & 107), and Tanner Houck (113 & 105). Both Burnes and Rodriguez have also seen strong on-field results as well. In short, they are looking like the strongest 1-2 punch in the AL, if not all of baseball.
Moving to Wells and Kremer, both have looked promising. While neither have great stuff (99 Stuff+ for Wells and 88 for Kremer), their command has been pinpoint (108 Location+ for Wells and 109 for Kremer). I have faith that both can stick in the rotation for most of the season, unless the Orioles make multiple major upgrades at the deadline. I see both as credible big-league mid-rotation starters.
Irvin is another matter. There is only one start worth of data for Cole, and in that start, he had a comparable stuff/location profile (91/112) to Wells and Kremer. If he can maintain that, he should be able to get by as the team’s 5th starter. I think Irvin probably has about a month of starts (5-6) to make his case.
Getting to the point of this article, Irvin does have some guys nipping at his heels.
John Means
Starting with the obvious, John Means is slowly working his way back in AAA. I don’t really care to discuss the results because, in short, they don’t matter. However, I am interested if he’s getting whiffs on his pitches (no, and somewhat, in his first two starts, respectively) and if his velocity is ticking up (not really).
In his most recent start, Means sat 88-91 with his fastball, which got five whiffs, but he notably only generated one whiff on his patented change-up.
The jury is out on Means, but it’s becoming very evident why the Orioles have slow-played him to this point. I have no current expectations for Means and worry that he isn’t an upgrade over Irvin at this point.
That being said, I absolutely love Means and hope he’s able to show some progress over his next few starts.
Albert Suarez
The pitcher that followed Means in his most recent start, Albert Suarez, was much more impressive. Suarez averaged 95.1 on his four seam fastball, logged six scoreless innings, and has yet to walk a batter in 11 AAA frames. Suarez also has a cutter that generates whiffs and a curveball and change-up to keep opposing hitters honest.
Suarez popped in some of the Stuff+ models this spring. This is a guy who will play a big-league role for the Orioles this year; the question for me is, when that will be (I think within the month) and whether he will slot into the rotation or bullpen. The latter question is harder to answer since a rotation spot would likely depend on Irvin falling flat on his face or a (knock on wood) injury.
I’d imagine his stuff will play up even further in the bullpen. While he’d likely start as a swing man, he could evolve into a good candidate to fortify the back end of the bullpen.
Cade Povich
Cade Povich has been one of the most impressive pitchers in all of AAA to kick off the season. He has a manageable 2.5 BB/9 and an eye-popping 11.5 K/9 while not allowing a HR and only three hits in 11 IP. His ERA is a miniscule 0.82 and he has earned it. Povich has a deep arsenal of at least five pitches, and maybe six if you believe Statcast.
What was most impressive in his last start is that Povich generated multiple (2+) whiffs on four separate pitches: 4-seam fastball (6), change-up (4), cutter (2), and sweeper (3). I focus so heavily on whiffs because I believe it is one of the skills that most portends big league success (in the high minors), along with a low walk rate. Povich has a tick more velo than Means (mostly 91-94) and doesn’t rely on only one secondary.
In addition to Suarez, Povich looks like a very promising rotation option performing at a high level in AAA.
Unlike Suarez, I doubt Povich would be called up to pitch out of the pen.
Chayce McDermott
While Chayce McDermott has been incredibly hard to hit (4+ whiffs on EACH of the 4-seam, cutter and change-up in his last start while averaging 93.4 on the fastball), the control has gotten off to a terrible start: McDermott has walked basically a batter per inning thus far, which is obviously untenable. I expect the Orioles to keep McDermott in Norfolk until about the end of July, hoping for the control/command to click. If he’s still struggling at that point (hopefully not; it has only been two starts), I’d expect them to shift him, at least temporarily, into a relief role so he’s an option for the big-league bullpen.
Where things stand now, he seems further away, but also could click at any moment. Keep watching.
It’s nice that the Orioles have basically five viable 5th starter options in Irvin, Means, Suarez, Povich and McDermott.
To me, all five pitchers are worthy of big league roles. I’d rank my interest in them (this year, not long-term) as:
1. Suarez
2. Povich
(GAP)
3. McDermott
4. Irvin
5. Means
It speaks to our depth that the guy who is actually starting in the big leagues is 4th on my list and the former staff ‘ace’ is 5th. And can you imagine if Kyle Bradish actually comes back?
This is not to say that’s how the Orioles will see it. The org may still choose to give Means some run in the rotation out of respect to his past contributions, even if he is not the most promising option.
Here is a quick mock-up end-of-year rotation/bullpen (with no outside additions) if everyone stays healthy/returns to health.
Rotation: Burnes, Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Povich.
Bullpen: Kimbrel, Cano, Wells, Coulombe, Akin, Suarez, McDermott, Irvin/Means.
I’m honestly surprised by how good I feel about this staff, especially the rotation, even after the loss of Bradish.
Go O’s!
