Orioles’ Future Suddenly Looks to be Baltimore Sports’ Brightest

If you are a Baltimore sports fan, and you were born after 1997, the question of which local franchise is set up better, the Ravens or the Orioles, would have been a one-sided answer. In that time period, the Ravens have two Super Bowl titles and several playoff appearances.

Counterpoint: While O’s Future is Bright, It’s Still Advantage: RAVENS

Meanwhile, the Orioles have no World Series titles and while they did have a good run from 2012-2016, the team has largely been a complete failure and laughingstock for most of the last 25 years.

Things started to change in November of 2018. That is when the Orioles hired Mike Elias to run the team, and ever since then, they have been gaining on the Ravens. It took a while for the big club to start winning, but they were building a true organization and laying the foundation for long term success.

And now, coming off an AL East title, 101 wins and still having the best minor league system in the sport (despite several call ups), it’s fair to ask, have the Orioles passed the Ravens by?

First, let’s just state the obvious here. Baltimore fans are very lucky right now. We have two organizations that appear to be in great shape now and long-term, but it’s nice to actually be able to have this conversation, which would have been laughable not too long ago.

The Ravens are 9-3, and currently hold the top seed in the AFC. They’ve outplayed their opponent in every game this season, and held late leads in each of their losses. The only team that has beaten them is themselves. Lamar Jackson looks the best he has ever looked throwing the football, he has actual weapons to distribute the ball to and the defense is playing at a very high level.

The Ravens are a stable organization with a lot of good young pieces that are locked up long term. They have an excellent owner and a top end front office. So, what’s not to like?

Well, you have a lot of money committed to one player. In the history of the NFL, only two teams have won a Super Bowl with one player making more than 12.5% of their team’s salary cap.  One was Steve Young back in 1994 and the other was Patrick Mahomes, just last year. In fact, most of the teams that had a player with that high of a cap hit don’t even make the playoffs.  So, that is something the team must overcome.

Also, the one player who is making that big money hasn’t finished the season for three years in a row. Lamar has to show us that he can stay healthy and be healthy when it matters the most.

This is also an organization that has won just two playoff games in the last decade. John Harbaugh is a really good head coach and he appears to have finally made the necessary changes to bring in an offensive coordinator that plays a more modern style of football. Over the last decade, the Ravens have played an archaic brand of football and we are still seeing too many miscommunications, injuries, dumb mistakes, etc.. At some point, that goes on the coach when it is the same thing all the time. The issue there is Harbaugh’s relationship with Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti and GM Eric DeCosta. It makes you think Harbaugh is going nowhere and if these things keep happening, that could hold the franchise back.

Do those “issues” mean the Orioles have passed them? I think there is a good case to be made that they, combined with what Elias has built, mean the Orioles have finally passed the Ravens by.

First of all, as I mentioned, the Orioles are coming off a 101-win season and a division title. Of course, they got swept out of the playoffs, but that doesn’t diminish what they accomplished. Secondly, the Orioles have arguably the best group of talented young players in the sport and they are all locked up for much of or the rest of this decade. I would argue that the team we saw in 2023 is going to be the worst team we see for several years. The future Oriole teams may not win 100+ games, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be better and more talented.

Next year, we could see #1 MLB prospect Jackson Holliday, several top 30 guys in Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo, not to mention other top 100 guys like Joey Ortiz. That is a substantial amount of high-end to elite talent you are adding to a roster that already has some of the best young talent in the sport.

We are also seeing the Orioles do a better job in the International market and that is the next huge step they can take to really make their system dominant.

Right now, no team has more assets than the Orioles. Whether it be players or money, the Orioles have a lot that they can add around this elite young talent and do what it takes to put them over the top. This is harder to do in the NFL because of the salary cap and the parity that it creates. The Ravens cannot just go out and sign or trade for whatever they want. They have to operate within certain limitations and that is before we talk about the Jackson contract and how that hinders them as well.

Now, with that said, the Orioles have one HUGE obstacle and that is ownership. As I said, the Orioles have the assets needed to put them over the top but will the owner allow Elias and his team to use those assets? I have talked about this a lot before but any Orioles fan that is pining for nine-figure free agent contracts needs to stop that dream now. It’s just not going to happen.  John Angelos won’t allow it and even if he did, I don’t think Elias would do it because he knows those contracts have historically been failures and they are not needed for success. The Astros and Braves, arguably the two best teams in the sport, may sign their own players to big contracts, but they clearly don’t value those deals for free agents.  Elias came from the Astros and I believe he thinks that way and, for the most part, I agree with that mindset.

What those teams will do is sign the guys they need to for higher AAV deals, give three-year contracts, etc…they will trade for guys making a good salary (Justin Verlander for example).  These are things the Orioles have yet to prove they will do and we have seen and heard enough from Angelos that should make everyone question if he will invest properly into the team.

Also, when it comes to that ownership, does he frustrate Elias to the point where he and his team leave and go to elsewhere? If that happens, I am not sure anyone reputable comes to work for Angelos and that could send us into the doldrums again.

The good news about John, unlike his dad, is that he will play in the international FA market. He will allow Elias to get the technology needed. He will allow him the tools he needs for player development. That is more important and those things matter to Elias, so that could be enough to keep him here.

To be a successful MLB franchise that makes the playoffs consistently and is able to put yourself in position to win titles, you have to utilize all resources. We know the Orioles can handle a larger payroll.  They have so many guys that are going to be making little to no money for the next several years, that the payroll is going to stay on the lower end anyway, so there should easily be enough room to sign or trade whoever they want.  Angelos has to allow Elias freedom in this regard.

The Orioles also play in arguably the hardest division in sports and you don’t expect the Red Sox and Yankees to stay down for long. Of course, the Ravens also play in a tough division. Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury against the Ravens, but as long as he is there, the Bungles will contend. The Steelers seemingly always find a way to win, and there is no better example than this year. Even the Browns are becoming more and more competent. You might give the Ravens the advantage there but even if you do, it’s not by a lot. The new balanced MLB schedule makes it easier to play in the AL East than it did before.

My vote would be a slight lean towards the Orioles. When you are this deep in talent and not just talent but elite talent, you have a great future ahead of you. I believe Angelos will allow Elias to do enough to win (even if it’s not as much as he should allow) and the Orioles will be set up better long term than the Ravens will be. Can they win in the playoffs?  That is what they have to prove, just as the Ravens and Lamar Jackson have to prove it.

As I said, the fans are lucky to have both and for the first time since basically the Ravens moved to Baltimore, this is a conversation that we can have. It’s fun to think about.