Reality: The Orioles are 40-28 and in 1st place in the AL East.
Perception: If you really think about it, that’s a pretty remarkable fact after all the O’s have gone through this season. Outside of Chris Tillman, their rotation pretty has pretty much stunk. They give up way too runs, with no starter (besides Tillman) having below a 4.14 ERA. No team with that awful of a starting rotation should be 12 games over .500.
Then think about the injuries to Kevin Gausman, Yovani Gallardo, J.J. Hardy, Caleb Joseph, and the suspension to Manny Machado. Those are not just your average players. Those guys are key contributors to the team.
Put those things together with the fact that the AL East is, again, the toughest division in baseball, with four out of the five teams at or above .500, and it would seem that the Orioles would be towards the bottom of the division. Instead, the Orioles have the best record in the AL East, the second best record in the American League, and the 5th best record in all of baseball.
Reality: The Orioles should be in the market for a starting pitcher.
Perception: The problem is, just about every other team that plans to be a buyer at the trade deadline is also looking for starting pitching. And it’s slim pickings.
The White Sox tried to get ahead of the competition by trading for James Shields a few weeks back. That was one move that I really wanted the Orioles to make. Boy, was I wrong! No one saw this coming from Shields. In his last three outings he has lasted just 2.0, 5.0, and 1.2 innings. In those games, he gave up seven, six, and eight earned runs, respectively. His ERA with Chicago is 21.81.
So who might be available to help the Orioles? According to SB Nation Rich Hill (36 and on the DL), Andrew Cashner, CC Sabathia (if the Yankees decide to sell), Jeremy Hellickson, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Jered Weaver, are the top names available. My response…are you kidding me?!?!
None of those guys (outside Sabathia and maybe Hill) would help any team in the playoffs. But when basically every team that decides to be a buyer needs help in their rotation, what do you expect?
Any real quality starting pitcher (like Julio Teheran or Sonny Gray) will cost way more than a team like the Orioles can afford. So it will best interesting to see what Dan Duquette comes up with in July to help this team down the stretch.
Reality: The O’s have hit the most home runs in MLB.
Perception: The Birds not only out-homered the Blue Jays Sunday, but they also lead Toronto and every other team in dingers. They are 8th in runs scored, 10th in batting average, and 10th in on-base percentage. When you hit the ball as far as the Orioles do, it helps to make up for any of the poor pitching that they have. So far, it’s worked. The key will be to continue to do it all season. Maybe more importantly is, will it work the same way in the playoffs?
Reality: Baltimore has the best record in the AL East against their own division.
Perception: The O’s are 18-13 against the AL East. That’s important because in order to win the division you have to find a way to beat those same teams. The Blue Jays also have a winning record against the AL East, but everyone else in the division has a losing record. That won’t help them when it comes to trying to take home the AL East crown.
In the AL East, the Orioles have the best record against the AL Central. They have struggled, with a losing record, against the AL West.
