The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away and the biggest questions surrounding the sport are, will Shohei Ohtani be traded and if so, where does he go and for what?
Right now, the Angels are within five games of the second wild card spot, and they are a .500 team overall. Unfortunately for them, Mike Trout is out with a hamate bone injury and isn’t expected to be back for at least three more weeks and possibly even longer.
If the Angels can stay in the hunt for the next two weeks, I don’t think they will trade Ohtani, so all this is moot.
For the sake of argument though, let’s pretend that they will trade him. This week, two different national articles came out that talk about either the Orioles specifically trading for him, or speculated that they are one of his potential landing destinations.
Should the Orioles go after him? The answer is a definitive yes but with the caveat of, “only to a certain point.”
The first article is on ESPN.com and Jeff Passan (whom we wish a speedy recovery!) is playing GM. They discuss different trade proposals for Ohtani from several different teams. When they get to the Orioles, the proposed deal is Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Cade Povich and DL Hall. Passan said that is not enough for the Angels (huh?) and is probably too much for the Orioles (correct). In fact, the entire article is largely teams throwing several top 100 prospects at LAA (some even way up the list in the top 25) and Passan still saying it’s not enough.
(Passan mentions Jackson Holliday and I believe that to be a complete nonstarter, so I will not mention his name here again.)
Let us not forget something: if the Angels don’t trade Ohtani and they don’t win a World Series with him and he walks, all they get is a draft pick. Let us also not forget that the trading team will only get him for two months and however deep they go into the playoffs. I know he is the best player in the sport, and I know he is like trading for two players, but are the Angels really going to say no to multiple top 50 prospects and other promising players if they decide to trade him?
Now let’s examine the second article, this one is in The Athletic by former Baltimore Sun writer Ken Rosenthal. This article was about how the Orioles should be the team that gets Ohtani, and Rosenthal’s trade offer is one of Ryan Mountcastle/Colton Cowser/Coby Mayo/Heston Kjerstad (one of these is not like the others), one of Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz or Cesar Prieto (lets also add Connor Norby to this), Samuel Basallo, and Cade Povich or Seth Johnson.
Now, as an O’s fan, if you told me we could get Ohtani for Basallo (whom I have zero interest in trading otherwise), Mounty, Prieto and one of the pitchers, I am saying you do that deal immediately, as much as I would hate to lose Basallo.
However, am I trading one of Kjerstad, Mayo or Cowser? No, I do not think so.
I know people will not like that because “how can you keep prospects over the best player in the world?”
Part of the reason is that the O’s have zero hope to convince Ohtani to stay in Baltimore, because of ownership. The reality is no one knows what Shohei wants. He is a very private person and there are a lot of assumptions being made. However, he will want to get paid and the O’s aren’t doing that. So, if they trade for him, it’s to try to win a World Series right now. Is that worth trading away your best prospects and more to get him?
I mean, it is if you knew you would win it all, but obviously, we won’t know that. For me, it’s not worth it.
It’s worth trading some of these guys though. Would I deal a few top 100 guys and several other promising players who could be in the top 100 soon? Sure. There are several different variations of the deal that I would do, but I am not trading what I believe to be long-term, cornerstone players for two months of Shohei.
Here is the other issue and it is perhaps the biggest: Shohei’s blister problem. He has not pitched much recently because of the blister on his pitching hand. Obviously, it’s not affecting his batting, but it is affecting his pitching. The Orioles need him for the pitching, and if that is an issue that keeps popping up, as these tend to do, a trade could really backfire on them, even if he continues to be a beast with the bat.
The O’s need him for his arm. Yes, the bat will play and be great to add to the team, but on the mound is where they need him the most.
I also think the need for a dominant back-end reliever is more glaring, and while I would also like to add a starter, reliever is #1 on my list. I mention that because you must be careful how you use your assets and what you use them for. Now, the O’s should have enough assets to acquire both, though it all depends on what they are willing to give up and what other teams want.
There is also the idea of the extra revenue Ohtani would generate. That cannot be overlooked, and it certainly could be something that gets John Angelos, who only cares about money, to push the front office to get something done because of the impact financially. How much weight should that carry?
I know this: if they did deal for him and they traded guys I would hate to lose, I would still be excited and obviously, so would everyone else. If the O’s win a World Series with him, we won’t care who they traded to get him. The Yard would be packed and the enthusiasm would be at an all-time high.
Maybe that is all that matters. Maybe that is all we should care about. Maybe I will look back on things five years from now and say, “I cannot believe I was dumb enough to say no to trading Mayo and Kjerstad for him.”
I agree that’s possible. Right now, I still think it’s the decision I would make because I feel that strongly about those two players.
So, by all means, go after him. Put Basallo, one of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby, one of Hall/Povich and 1-2 other guys in your top 30. If they want to do that, I am all for it (and again, some other variations of that as well) but I am not giving up my best guys plus other stuff for a rental, no matter how great a player he is, especially because of the blister.
It’s going to be a very interesting few weeks leading up to the deadline, and Ohtani will be at the forefront of all of it. I imagine the Orioles will kick the tires on him. If they do, how high they are willing to go is something to watch, but I am guessing a team that believes they can sign him will go higher than the O’s would and that is OK.
We do not need him to win a World Series.
Even if he would make it easier.
