After Disappointing ALDS, O’s Face Critical Offseason Decisions

The Baltimore Orioles’ 101-win 2023 season came to an abrupt end when the Texas Rangers swept them right out of the playoffs. As I pointed out prior to the series starting, the Rangers were a very bad matchup for the O’s and that’s how it played out on the field.

This is what can happen in the small sample size of the playoffs. The O’s didn’t have luck on their side (and you need a lot of it in the playoffs) and everything just seemed to go the Rangers’ way. In a short series, that’s what happens.

That being said, the Orioles also lost because they had a pitching disadvantage and that started with the Felix Bautista injury. That injury, despite what people want to tell you about the bullpen ERA before and after the injury, changed this team.

On top of that, look at that postseason roster and be honest with yourself. Was that the roster of a 101-win team, especially the pitching staff? It’s just not, and going forward, that needs to change, especially knowing that they won’t have Bautista in 2024 either.

I know some are probably still too upset to look forward, but that’s what I am going to do. This team has a very bright future (assuming the owner doesn’t screw it up) but they also have a lot of tough decisions to make.

The first question I have – and it’s the biggest question of the offseason – is: when will they bring up all the top prospects from AAA?

If you really think about it, that decision means so much in terms of what else they do this offseason. The Orioles already have Heston Kjerstad on the 26-man roster and let’s just assume, for discussion purposes, that he is staying. They also have Colton Cowser, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, and the forgotten man, Kyle Stowers, as four “of age” prospects that have very little to prove in the minors and are ready to be on a major league roster.

(You can argue that Norby can stay in AAA and continue to work on his OF defense, but for the most part, they are all ready.)

Then they have the two “kids,” in top 20 prospect Coby Mayo and the best prospect in the sport, Jackson Holliday. Both of these players could go back to AAA (and my guess is that they will to start the season) but the reality is that they could be in the majors tomorrow and it wouldn’t be a bad idea. Mayo dominated the minors this year. He was young for each level, posted a .973 OPS, had 29 homers, 45 doubles and he even hit .290 while cutting down his K rate.

Holliday, somehow, did even better. He obviously does not have Mayo’s power, but he played at four levels this year, all of which he was very young for, and posted a .944 OPS, stole 24 bases and walked 101 times. He will develop more power as he gets more mature and he looks on pace to be an impact player from the day he steps onto an MLB field.

Consider this: Gunnar Henderson (as a 20-year-old) in 2021 played at three levels and didn’t come close to the success Holliday did in the 2023 season. That doesn’t mean Holliday will be better, but he could be, and considering Gunnar has an MVP level game if he can improve against LHP, that is a scary thought to the rest of the league.

The issue for Holliday and Mayo is, where do they play? The Orioles drafted Holliday #1, in a close competition, because they felt he was a major-league shortstop. At that time, there was question if Gunnar could stay at SS. Now, it looks like Gunnar can be a well above average SS and Holliday is still a work in progress defensively. Would they move Gunnar to third for Holliday? Will they just put Holliday at second? This is part of why I can see them sending Holliday back down. It allows him to work on his defense, and they keep him down long enough to hopefully gain that extra year of service time (and hope he doesn’t “pull an Adley” and finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting despite missing 1/3 of the season).

Since Scott Boras is his agent, gaining that extra year is very important (more on this later).

Mayo is playing mostly third base. I think he can handle it and be another Troy Glaus, but I think it’s more likely he is a first baseman going forward. He has played some first base but not a lot and that could be a reason they send him back to AAA, a la Holliday, to work on his defense.

Overall, that is six players (again assuming Kjerstad is already here to stay) to fit onto the roster.

Could any of them be traded?

To me, the Orioles have three “untouchables” in the minors: Holliday, Mayo and Samuel Basallo. While no player is truly untouchable, I just can’t imagine a realistic scenario where Mike Elias moves any of those three in a trade. I also would struggle to move Kjerstad, and he is the guy I keep before Cowser, Ortiz, Stowers or Norby. The other name that can be included here is Jordan Westburg. I am of the opinion that one of Westburg or Ortiz has to be traded. I have seen some people lobby for keeping both and making one of them a utility IF. While you could do that, my guess is they both have more value in trade than they would playing sparingly in Baltimore. I am good with either as a starting player and I would deal whoever gets us more in trade.

(I would probably prefer to keep Westburg, but it is close, and I would be more than happy with Ortiz playing every day.)

Back to pitching.

Elias should use some of the above players, as well as other prospects, to acquire pitching. These are all high level prospects that can help a team right now and they are all good pieces in any deal. The O’s obviously won’t (and don’t need to) trade everyone but they likely do need to trade a few of these guys. Most of them have to be added to the 40-man after the 2024 season. You don’t want to risk losing players for nothing and you don’t want to have guys exposed and see their values drop. How many former top prospects do we see available on the waiver wire every year? Guys are going to fail, get hurt, etc…you can’t keep everyone and you can’t just keep everyone in AAA either.

Since they can’t just stay in AAA, the next question becomes: how do they fit in Baltimore?

The Orioles aren’t going to bring back Adam Frazier. Aaron Hicks could be back but for now, he is a free agent. Ryan O’Hearn, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountastle, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo and Anthony Santander are all arbitration eligible. Ramon Urias is still under contract.

To get the more talented and younger prospects onto this team, they need to move on from some of these vets. Santander is the player who represents the largest salary (estimated about $12M in arbitration) and has the least amount of service time left (one year of team control). However, he is also one of the team’s only true power hitters and the O’s likely need more power, not less. While it’s fine to hope that Kjerstad and eventually Mayo help with that, it may be tough to trade Santander.

On the other hand, he is very inconsistent, isn’t someone they will likely sign long term considering what’s behind him in the pipeline (don’t forget, Basallo isn’t too far behind either) and that money may be better spent elsewhere.

There are reasons to keep or move any of the other vets and it really depends on when they want to get all these kids up here.

The other concern with the kids is, how many of them are you willing to rely on in a year where the team should be a legit World Series contender? The O’s could have as many as six or so rookies on the 2024 team. That is a lot of inexperience for a contending team. The other side to that is, when is it going to be a good time? The Orioles are in their window now and these guys are part of that, so you have to play them at some point. They are ready right now, so it’s a really tough decision.

Will John A Pay?

Will John Angelos open up the checkbook?

Elias has lots of resources to play with, and its possible he goes for a young, cost controlled starter and uses his position players to trade for a young starter from a team like Seattle or Miami. If he does that, it won’t cost Angelos any money. One of my targets this offseason is Luis Robert, Jr. It’s tough to assume all your prospects will develop, so outside help may be needed and Robert has a cheap contract, tremendous power and is still young. The White Sox are a mess and trading Robert can help jump start yet another rebuild on the South Side.

I mention those two specific things because everyone is going to focus on the payroll and while I do want to see Angelos spend money, we have to also realize that the team has a lot of players that are pre-arbitration eligible or early on in their arbitration years, and if they added a cheap young starter and/or a high level position player signed to a team friendly contract, the payroll number is still going to be low. However, the surplus value will be off the charts and, at the end of the day, it’s the talent that matters, not the money.

I am of the opinion the O’s need to add two starting pitchers. I would trade for one and sign one. There are a lot of very good starters available this offseason and while Dean Kremer is a decent starting pitcher, the Orioles have the resources to do better. I also think they need to stop relying on Tyler Wells as a starter. He breaks down at 100 innings, has had injury issues, etc.. He’s a good pitcher but there is no reason to rely on him in 2024 if they use their resources correctly. Let him go to the pen. DL Hall can factor into the rotation as well but I personally think that experiment should end. He still could do it but the inconsistencies and health are an issue and he seems comfortable as a high leverage reliever. I would love to see the O’s pitch him 80-100 innings out of the pen. He could be such a weapon in that role. Don’t limit him to just a single inning at a time.

The Orioles also likely need to spend some money on the bullpen. Things were ugly down the stretch, and not having Felix is an obvious issue. You want to avoid signing relievers for middling money though. The signings like say, Mychal Givens, where they make $4-7M a year rarely work out, and they should be able to get similar production for $1M or so.

The other way Angelos can open up the checkbook is with contract extensions. He recently opened his mouth and spouted lies about how extensions mean you have to drastically raise ticket prices. First of all, the guys you consider extending will not make any real money for four-plus years, so acting like you have to raise prices because of that is just dishonest. That being said, fine..raise prices. You are going to do it anyway, as a way to capitalize on the team’s success. As I have said before, these extensions can be very overrated by the fan base but there are some exceptions to the rule.

So, who do you extend? For me, the top two guys are Henderson and Holliday. They are both represented by Boras and that makes this tough as Boras is on record as not liking these contracts. At the end of the day, an agent works for the players and if they want to sign it, he can’t stop them.

That said, I think we also have to be realistic on how long we can sign them for. Gunnar is a FA after 2028, when he will be 27 years old. I think the realistic contract for him would be to sign him for seven years. That means he can still sign a FA contract before he turns 30. Gunnar is set to make, assuming health and high level production, about $50M or so the next five years. Pay him $30-35M a year in years six and seven. That gives him a 7/110-120 type deal.

Holliday is similar in that he likely would want to be in position to sign a FA deal before he turns 30. That means the O’s sign him through 2031 or 2032. That is giving him an eight-nine year deal right now and despite him never playing in the majors, I would do that. The money would be similar to what I proposed for Gunnar because one of those years for Holliday would be an extra pre-arb season compared to Henderson, and that is only $750K.

Most O’s fans are on the “sign Adley” bandwagon. I no longer am. His power didn’t step forward this year and the defense got a little worse. Now, he is still the best catcher in baseball in my opinion, and he is the most important player on this team but I don’t want to pay big money to a catcher on the wrong side of 30. I also question if his offense is good enough to play first and the presence of Basallo can’t be ignored, especially if he can stay at catcher, as some think he can.

Maybe in a few years I will feel differently about Adley and his development but that is where I am today. No one else, in my opinion, is currently an extension-worthy candidate. We have to see more from the younger players. Grayson Rodriguez you say? I am not in favor of long deals for pitchers.

Overall, a lot of these things are good problems to have but they are problems that need to be solved. This team has entered a window that could be left open for a decade or more if they do things correctly.

Unfortunately, if they screw this up and make bad moves, they could become the White Sox very quickly. Not long ago, the White Sox were a team that was viewed as having a wide open window. A team filled with good young talent and solid vets. That window closed fast and a lot of that was due to poor management, (and also injuries and some bad luck).

The Orioles and their fans can’t take things for granted. Don’t do what the team did in 2012 and 2014, when they largely rested on their laurels.

Next year is a whole new year and you can’t assume that just because you won 101 games this year that you will do it again without improvements.