With the Orioles having a much-needed off day following a disappointing 2-4 road trip through Kansas City and Arizona – which continued their disappointing 5-8 start to the 2025 campaign, what better time than to drown our sorrows and commiserate over what on earth has gone wrong so far?
In no particular order…
Where’s the Offense?
I say “in no particular order,” but this one, to me, is the biggest head-scratcher. The Orioles lineup, on paper, is relentless, with huge power and good speed throughout. Young, exciting players champing at the bit to get in the box and mash, right?
Yet, 13 games in, the actual results have been anything but relentless, instead showing up as infuriatingly inconsistent, continuing the trends we saw over the final months of 2024.
Through 7 losses the Os have avged 1.86 runs per game
13 runs in 7 games
Ranks 24th in baseball
Have allowed 5.9 runs a game in losses which ranks 15th in baseball
— PigTownSports (@PigTownSports) April 9, 2025
Through seven losses, they’d averaged 1.86 runs per game in those contests. After being shut out yesterday, that number is down to 1.6 runs per game in their defeats. They’ve already been shut out twice, and while getting blanked by Garrett Crochet is one thing, having it happen against Merrill Kelly?! Seriously, boys?
Those anemic outputs in losses have been counterbalanced by big numbers in wins (42 runs in five wins, for 8.4 runs per game), making the overall numbers (16th in MLB in HR, 13th in wRC+, 12th in AVG, 13th in OBP, 16th in SLG) seem less disheartening. But they’re getting crushed by double plays, as they’ve hit into an MLB-worst 16 twin killings. That number seems like nothing but awful luck/random variation, but it’s put an end to many a potential rally, so any time the universe wants to decide enough is enough wouldn’t be a second too soon.
The #Orioles GB% is 25th in the league. Only a few teams are hitting less grounders than the Os..and yet they lead the league in GIDP. Go figure. #badluck #Birdland @EutawStReport
— Rob (@rshields97) April 10, 2025
The power outage has been especially tough to watch. Since hitting 10 home runs in the first three games, the Birds have hit just two since. Yes, the weather conditions were miserable in Kansas City (which didn’t stop Bobby Witt Jr. from hitting one out), but heading to the desert, things should have improved. Ryan O’Hearn knocked one out in the first inning of game one against the DBacks, so it was fair to assume the flood gates were about to open, but of course that didn’t happen, as his was the Birds’ only dinger of the series. The hosts, naturally, slugged five.
Individually…
Adley Rutschman got everyone all excited with his two-homer opener, and seemingly hasn’t come close since, reverting to his wet-noodle ways of the second half of last season (eight singles and one double, .225/.340/.250). At least he’s walking?
Ryan Mountcastle has yet to homer in 38 PA, despite smoking a few baseballs.
highest 8 exit velocities by mlb hitters this year pic.twitter.com/PQn1NXMbaE
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 9, 2025
His flyball% being a career-low 30.3% (career 38.4%) is certainly playing a huge role there.
Gunnar Henderson didn’t have a spring training, and looked awful in Kansas City, then appeared to be set to turn things around after a single, double, two stolen bases and two runs scored on Monday, but then went just 1-for-8 (a single) the rest of the series. We’ve only gotten one angry walk so far as well, so Gunnar definitely seems to be pressing as he looks to get back into the swing of things.
Cedric Mullins has been carrying the load, with a team-high three homers , 14 RBI, and 185 wRC+. Of course, Ced is in a contract year, and Mike Elias can’t wait to shove him out the door…but that’s a discussion for another day.
Speaking of shoving folks out the door, a guy fans are on year three of pushing, Ramon Urias, leads the team in average at .324 (bolstered by a team-high .379 BABIP), and is second in OBP (.395) and fourth with a 10.5 BB%.
Jordan Westburg, like Adley, started off gangbusters with three HR in Toronto, but is apparently dealing with some upper body discomfort (also we are apparently a hockey team now?), so has been getting rested while also not producing like The Producer we know him to be.
Tyler O’Neill extended his MLB record of Opening Day home runs, and is second on the team behind Ced with a 165 wRC+. He’s had good BABIP luck, right behind Urias at .367, but also hasn’t left the yard since that opener. Unlike Mounty though, he’s hitting the ball in the air plenty, with a career-high 51.6 flyball%. His average EV is right in line with last year and his career averge at 90.5, and he hit 31 bombs in 2024, so it seems fair to remain bullish on TON.
(By the way: Anthony Santander is having his typical April at .184/.298/.204 with nary a homer yet, so those eager to light the pitchforks should wait for a later, warmer, date.)
Jackson Holliday looks much better than he did last season, slashing .250/.268/.400 (93 wRC+) at the moment, but the strikeouts are creeping up (one each game in Arizona, now at 26.8%), so it’s possible pitchers have taken note and are planning a bit more carefully for the youngster. It’ll be interesting to watch how he adjusts back, but for now, he’s the least of our worries.
Heston Kjerstad had a big RBI knock off a lefty Saturday in KC, but has been disappointing overall since Colton Coswer went down, hitting just .207/.226/.241 (35 wRC+), with five singles and a double. He’s pulling the ball just 13.6% of the time, compared to 28.8% last year, while going to the opposite field 50% of the time, compared to just 27.3% last year. The “go with the pitch” approach might not be the ticket for Heston. Pull the ball, young man!
Hang on a Sec…
The last Kjerstad fact, along with another tweet from Rob Shields, prompted me to look into that further.
As a whole, the Orioles aren’t pulling the ball. Their 36.4% pull% is tied for last in MLB with the Mets. While they are 6th in MLB in hardhit%, they’re 17th in flyball%. Add all this up – combined with playing 30% of their games in Kansas City – and we’re seeing where the home runs have gone.
In 2023, they were 20th in pull%. During the first half of 2024, they were 11th. That fell to 29th!
There may be something here, folks.
As much as we all bemoan the reliance on the long ball and want to see players slap the ball the other way like so many did when we oldz were falling in love with the game, here in 2025 you win baseball games by pounding the ball over the fence. The top five MLB squads in dingers at the moment – the Dodgers, Yankees, A’s, Angels, and Cubs – have a combined record of 38-27. Take out the A’s, who aren’t trying to win, and it’s 33-19.
It’s time, fellas. The hydration station MUST return. How can you hit dongs if there’s nowhere to hydrate afterwards? As much as I love the fishing thing, it may have to go the way of the handlebars. At the very least, some version of the dong bong/hydration station needs to appear during this homestand.
Wrapping Up
I had planned to bemoan some of the injuries, pitching woes, and daily lineup roulette in this column, but it’s gone on long enough. We’re all too familiar with all of that anyway.
The longest homestand of the season (nine games) is upon us. The Blue Jays, despite leading the AL East, are last in MLB in home runs, and while their ERA is top-10, the pitching isn’t dominant enough to continue carrying them. They’re due for a fall.
After that, it’s AFC North time, with Cleveland, who just won back-to-back games for the first time this season (beating us to that milestone, but shhhh) then Cincy (5-8).
Is 7-3 too much to ask? Aim high.
