The beginning of this season has been maddening.
For a multitude of reasons, from physical/mental errors to leaving pitches up in the zone when ahead in the count, the Orioles cannot seem to hold onto a lead no matter how big the margin.
In the past three days, the O’s have seen: a 5-0 turn into a fairy tale 6-5 win for the Boston Red Sox and national media; a 6-0 lead that diminished to a one-run lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, ending with the tying and winning run in scoring position; and, last night in the “6th inning of death” the Orioles blew a 3-0 lead on a single pitch.
The Orioles are making a habit of blowing games that they have been in control of, and it has set the fan base into an outrage.
Last night, after the Orioles were unable to manufacture any runs despite having runners at second and third with no outs to start the top of the 7th, followed by a one out walk to Chris Davis to load the bases, I tweeted the following:
Irony: Orioles lead the league in BA w/ RISP at .314 before tonight's game
— Klay Sauers (@ksauersESR) April 23, 2014
This sparked a conversation with a fellow Orioles fan. This friend told me that it was hard to believe that the O’s had the highest batting average with runners in scoring position in the MLB (and still do at .302), and then that they must lead the league in runners left in scoring position. This is not the first time I have heard the whispers of the ghost of the 2013 Orioles past, but let me explain.
First off, it is true. The 2014 Baltimore Orioles are leading the league in BA w/ RISP at .302, and their BABIP w/ RISP is .333. The O’s are also number three in the MLB in BA w/ RISP and 2 outs, batting a stellar .289.
Secondly, according to Team Rankings the Birds are leaving an average of 3.63 runners in scoring position per game which ranks them 12th in the MLB. Meaning there are 18 teams who are leaving more runners stranded in scoring position than the Baltimore Orioles – the worst being New York (4.00), Texas (4.00), Tampa (4.20), and Oakland (4.25).
The ability to push runners across, especially with two outs, is imperative for any team that wants to see themselves playing October baseball, and the ’14 Orioles have been getting those clutch hits when the ducks are on the pond.
In fact, according to Baseball Reference the Orioles are batting .282 in high leverage situations. Meaning that when there is a high opportunity for a swing of the bat to change the win probability of a game, e.g. runner on third late in a tie ball game, the Birds are knocking the ball around well.
The most productive of the Orioles hitters with RISP has been the O’s leading free-agent MVP candidate, Mr. Nelson Cruuuuuuz. Nelly is batting .381 w/ RISP, knocking in a team high 11 RBIs. It seems like every time Nelson comes to the plate with opportunity to do some damage Birdland ends up singing some Florida Georgia Line.
Know who has the highest BA w/ RISP for the Orioles? The unexpected answer: Jonathan Schoop.
Schoop is batting .429 w/RISP, has a BABIP of .500, 6 RBI, a double, and a home run. This kid is only 22 years old in his first season in the Big Leagues, and he is putting up some outstanding numbers at the plate. Granted he has made some big mistakes out on the field, but you cannot deny Schoop’s ability to do damage with the bat.
Other Orioles who have put good wood on the ball with RISP have been J.J. Hardy (.429), Chris Davis (.333), Ryan Flaherty (.300), Matt Wieters (.300), and Adam Jones (.286.)
It may just be the frustration of blowing leads and losing tight games that causes people to think back to all the missed opportunities, but the truth is that it is not the lack of clutch hits that is holding the Orioles back. In actuality, the Orioles are doing it better than any other team in MLB.
photo: Craig Landefeld
