Reality: The Orioles are tied for the 6th most wins in baseball this year.
#Orioles have 51 wins (with 75 games left) and a 2-game lead in the AL East. Safe to say this team was underestimated around the country.
— Joe Polek ????????⚾????⚽???? (@JoePolek) July 10, 2016
Perception: Before the season started, everyone put out their predictions. Now, no one can know what will really happen. But you can see trends and such. So what about these trends?
ESPN: 0 writers picked the Orioles to win the AL East. Only two had them making the playoffs.
USA Today: 0 out of 6 picked the Orioles to win the AL East.
Fox Sports: 0 out of 6 picked the Orioles to win the AL East.
CBS Sports: 0 out of 5 picked the Orioles to win the AL East. Actually, all five had the O’s finishing last.
Sports Illustrated: Predicted the Orioles would only win 69 games.
Unless the Orioles go 18-57 in the second half, then we know SI is wrong. I think it would be fair to say that CBS Sports will be wrong, as the Orioles will not finish dead last in the AL East.
Now, to be fair, there is still a chance that ESPN, USA Today and Fox Sports could still be right. The Orioles only have a two-game lead and the Red Sox and Blue Jays are both worthy of winning the AL East, but to think the Birds won’t even make the playoffs right now, doesn’t look correct.
I am just glad I didn’t do a prediction. “That’s why they play the games.”
Reality: The Orioles start the second half of their season with 51 wins.
.@Orioles' teams w/ 50+ wins thru 87 games have racked up:
6 AL Pennants
3 WS Championships— O's Stats & Facts (@BirdlandStats) July 10, 2016
Perception: Baltimore holds a two-game lead going into Friday’s start to the second half of the year. So, after 87 games, the Orioles are looking good, when you compare it to history.
This is the Orioles’ best start since 1997, when they were 55-32 after 87 games.
According to @BirdlandStats, this is the 11th Orioles team to have 50+ wins through 87 games. Of the previous 10, seven made the playoffs. Of those seven, six won the American League Pennant, and three went on to win the World Series.
The playoffs are now easier to make with the two wild cards, so unless there is an epic collapse, this year’s Birds should be playing in October.
Reality: Baltimore has the most wins at home in baseball this season.
Perception: The Orioles sit at 33-14 at home, but just 18-22 on the road. Because of that stat, the All-Star Game actually had greater importance for Baltimore then most other teams. With the American League winning, the Orioles could now have home-field advantage if they make it that far. And when you look at their home and road records, home-field advantage could be more crucial to this team than to most.
Reality: The Orioles are 30-30 against contending teams.
Good teams beat bad & @Orioles are good team. 21-6 v non-contenders (LAA, OAK, MIN, TB & SD). 30-30 v rest. Do what it takes to get to Oct.
— Mark Viviano (@MarkWJZ) July 10, 2016
Perception: I’ve always heard that good teams beat the teams they should beat. That’s what the O’s are doing. 21-6 against teams they “should” beat. That’s great. 30-30 against potential playoff teams is okay. If they were below .500, then that’s not great for October. But if you are .500, then that means Game 7 is happening and then all stats are thrown out the window.
There are a lot of things trending well for the Orioles, stat-wise. Of course, there are some not-so-good trends as well.
Reality: Baltimore has had more home runs taken away than any other team in MLB.
Most Home Runs Robbed This Season
Orioles 7
White Sox 2
Phillies 2
9 tied 1— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 8, 2016
Perception: Think about that for a minute. The last time it happened, everyone on twitter said “Man, this has happened way too much for the Orioles this year.” Then ESPN posted that tweet and it explained everything. No, O’s fans weren’t just “feeling” it. It was actually true. They have been robbed of a home run more than three times any other team. That’s remarkable. And there is simply no explanation.
Reality: The Orioles need to improve the performance of their starters.
Perception: That doesn’t shock anyone. The Orioles starters are 28th (out of 30 teams) in MLB in ERA (5.15). The Cubs are the best with a 3.09 ERA for starters. The Orioles need to get back to below 4.50, which would put them in the top half of baseball. The only way they are going to do what is by making a trade for a starter, and by possibly piggybacking starters.
We all know who they are offensively. They are 5th in batting average, 2nd in slugging, 1st in home runs, and 12th in strike outs. None of that will change, but the pitching has to improve in order for the Birds to get to the World Series.
