REALITY: The Baltimore Orioles made 2 trades and a couple other roster moves at the July 31 Trade Deadline.
PERCEPTION: You can count me in with the people that think they did an above average job at the non-waiver deadline.
If you look at players (not teams), the Orioles basically traded Zach Davies and Tommy Hunter for Gerardo Parra and Junior Lake. The money evened itself out with the Parra and Hunter trades. So you traded a MLB and MiLB pitcher for a MLB and MiLB outfielder.
What was the weak spot for the Orioles? Corner outfield. So they went out and got a Gold Glove corner outfielder who just happens to be the guy with the best average in baseball since May 1. Overall this season, he is 9th with a .324 average and is a top of the line-up guy.
So you fill the hole at the top of the batting order and fill the Corner Outfield hole with one trade. This trade becomes even more successful if the Orioles can convince Parra to stay with the team beyond 2015. If so, then the grade for the Orioles at the Trade Deadline become an A. If they can’t re-sign him, I still give it a B+.
Davies wasn’t helping you this year and probably not next year either. Hunter was headed out the door and wasn’t going to make or break your postseason this season. But you pick up a guy who will impact your postseason and a guy who could help you in the OF down the road.
The Orioles also got rid of struggling players, Bud Norris and Chris Parmelee… freeing themselves of a roster-jam that they have dealt with most of the season. Now they have a bit more freedom to move players.
REALITY: The Orioles are 53-51, 6 games back in the American League East, but just 1 game back of the AL Wild Card.
PERCEPTION: Less than two weeks ago, the Orioles got swept in New York by the Yankees. After that series, most O’s fans wanted the team to “sell” leading up to the July 31 Trade Deadline, including me.
Since then, the Birds have won 7 of their last 10, including a streak of 5 in a row. That has pulled the Orioles back into the Wild Card race. Yes, the O’s still have a chance to chase down the Yankees in the AL East, but one thing at a time. They have the opportunity to take the lead in the Wild Card race, which is a great place to be.
For a team written off by most, including me, just two weeks ago, the Orioles have showed they still have what it takes to play ball with anyone. Yes, they still have shortcomings, but who doesn’t?
REALITY: The Orioles are headed on a 9-game road trip to the West Coast.
PERCEPTION: This is an important road trip. A lot of us talk about how the baseball season is a long one and no one game matters too much. However, we are now in the month of August. Now it’s time to put up or shut up. One year ago, on a road trip to the West Coast, the Orioles separated themselves from the rest of the AL East. This is when they are going to need to put together another 18-5 streak (as they did earlier this season) and show the AL that they are a team to watch as we head to October.
REALITY: According to Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles have a 29.3% chance of making the playoffs, and a 1.5% chance of winning the World Series. Both of those odds are behind the Toronto Blue Jays and the Yankees in the AL East.
PERCEPTION: Right now, everyone is on the Blue Jays bandwagon, but I’ll believe it when I see it. A lot of people still think the Yankees are too old and will fall apart before the end of the season, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
I think the Orioles finish second in the AL East and are able to fight for an AL Wild Card slot until the end of September. The rest is up to their hitting. If they go cold again, so do their playoff chances. But I’m betting on them to stay hot.
