This is a weekly column that dives into eight random thoughts about the Orioles/MLB. Why eight? It’s a nod to Cal Ripken Jr. of course. That, and doing 2,632 of these would be a little overboard. – A.S.
Since the Orioles are winding down the season, it’s time to start thinking about the offseason. This week in the “Thoughts” we’ll take a look at the eight biggest storylines heading into the winter.
1. Free agency is the obvious big question when it comes to the Orioles, but I don’t think it’s a matter of what free agents the team re-signs. When it comes to the O’s, it’s more about perception. Chris Davis is one of three big fish out there that will likely be swimming to a different pond. Davis is going to make a good chunk of money after proving this season that he’s still capable of seasons like he had in 2013, rather than just the one he had in 2014.
As I’ve said many times, I don’t believe that chunk comes from the Warehouse. There seems to be a broken relationship since last year’s suspension, and while all of those home runs Davis has hit this season seem to have mended things with the fans, I’m still not convinced. That said, I still give Davis the best chance of any of the “big three” to re-sign with the O’s.
2. Matt Wieters is also going to make money this offseason, mainly because he’s a catcher. There’s value with that alone. It doesn’t matter that he’s coming off Tommy John surgery and is still a bit of a question mark, a team will pay to have him as their starter. Virtually everyone in Baltimore is convinced Wieters is gone, and that Caleb Joseph is the starter going into 2016. I still firmly believe Joseph needs to have a capable backup behind him, just like Nick Hundley was in 2014. I’m also not sure if Steve Clevenger is that guy, or if anyone else in the organization can be either. If (when) the Orioles allow Wieters to walk, they have to make sure they have a capable backup backstop to step in behind Joseph.
GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld
3. Wei-Yin Chen is the third of these “big three” free agents, and by far the least likely to be returning to Baltimore. As a matter of fact, if Chen is an Oriole next season, I’ll eat my hat. The biggest void this leaves for the O’s is a left-hander in the rotation. Unless the Birds want to go full righty with their five starters next season, they need to figure something out.
There really isn’t a great crop of southpaws ready to step in and fill the role. My biggest fear is that T.J. McFarland gets a shot. He’s too valuable as a long-man out of the bullpen. The “easiest” solution would be to go out and grab a free agent. Did you know that David Price is left-handed?
I kid, of course.
4. Perhaps the way the Orioles fix the issue of a fully right-handed rotation is to move Zach Britton there. That’s been the big rumor I’ve heard. Some circles believe that Britton’s hard sinker could work over six or seven innings, but don’t count me in that crowd. I like Britton as the closer, and I’m not convinced the O’s would have someone else to slide in that role if they move Britton out. That would require re-signing Darren O’Day, which I think is in the realm of possibility, but far from a slam dunk.
There have been other rumors circulating that Britton could be traded this offseason. His value will never be higher, I’d say. This could definitely be in the plans for the O’s if the right deal came along, but I don’t think they will be shopping him. There’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Britton, which should make his future one to watch.
5. It seems like an obvious question for every season, but how a bullpen is constructed is always crucial to a team’s success. The O’s have a number of pieces that could fit into the mix going into next year, but this offseason will determine how they all fall into place.
Mychal Givens will surely fit in somewhere. He’s being groomed as a key piece for next season.
Then there’s Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson and Oliver Drake. All three of seen their fair share of time in the big leagues this season as well.
The pieces from inside the organization will fall where they may, and some will even fall down into AAA, but I’m especially curious to see who is brought in from outside the organization. As discussed above, O’Day is the big free agent out there, so bringing him back could be a big get for the O’s as they look to piece together what has been one of their strongest units over the years.
GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld
6. There’s another elephant in the room when it comes to the bullpen, and that’s Dylan Bundy. Many forget that because of his contract status, he must make the major league roster next season. Bundy is obviously still getting healthy and building up innings, but he’s going to have to be treated like a Rule 5 pick next year. That makes me curious as to whether or not the O’s will go after anyone in this year’s Rule 5 Draft (I hope not).
Bundy is thought of as a starter obviously, but he’s not going to be handed a rotation spot. He’ll have to earn that, and until then he’s likely to be relegated to a bullpen role. He could very well serve as a right-handed McFarland (without the options). Bundy’s story and continued development at the big league level will be important to keep an eye on.
GulfBird Sports/Craig Landefeld
7. There’s going to be a big spotlight on Manny Machado this offseason (as if there isn’t one normally). The team is going to be pressured by some to give the All-Star third baseman a contract in the offseason to buy out some or all of his arbitration. Like Adam Jones, Machado wants to see this franchise going in the right direction. He’s had big taste of winning through his first few seasons, and have no doubt that he wants that trend to keep up.
But he also wants money, and guarantees. Every player desires that during their career. For a guy who has gone through two massive knee injuries and recoveries, now might be the time for him to jump on the opportunity. But the Orioles also need to be cautious about that very thing. Offering a big money deal to a player as young as Machado, even as proven as he already is, can be a big risk.
There will be plenty of rumors this winter about a potential extension for Machado. In my eyes, anything they get Machado for this offseason will be worlds cheaper than what it could be down the road. It may even be the team’s only chance to sign him to a long-term deal.
8. Perhaps the biggest storyline to look at this offseason is one that will be closely followed on this very website – fan reaction. A big part of every winter for baseball fans is overreaction. There’s always the idea of what a team will be on paper versus what they actually ARE going into the season.
With the Orioles fanbase, there is a feeling of fear heading forward. Many think that missing the playoffs this year, with so many expectations, could spell doom ahead. I can’t see another 14 years of losing on the horizon, but there’s no doubt that fans have a bit of a reason to feel uneasy. The O’s don’t have a strong farm system and have far more questions than answers.
Entering 2012, fans were hopeful and rewarded with a surprise Wild Card berth. Entering 2013, fans were just dreaming of another winning season, and got that but without the joy of a playoff berth. Going into last year, fans wanted to get back to the postseason obviously, but were rewarded with one of the more magical seasons in O’s history.
The expectations this season were high, and are going to fall short, but a pattern is what the team really needs to create. The O’s have an opportunity to stay competitive for a much longer stretch of time than they have in many years. If fans begin to turn before next season even starts, I won’t be surprised, but I’ll be disappointed.
I am as curious as anyone to see where the team heads this offseason, but I’m just as curious to see how everyone reacts to it.
