What Will David Rubenstein’s First Offseason Look Like?

Thanks to the LA Dodgers, the Yankees were denied their 28^th title and, more importantly, the hot stove season can start to ramp up.

The Orioles face an important offseason filled with many crucial decisions, both for 2025 and long term.

Over the course of the next five days, the Orioles must decide if they will offer a qualifying offer to Corbin Burnes and/or Anthony  Santander (both no-brainers; they then both have until Nov 19^th to accept or decline) and what options they will pick up amongst Ryan O’Hearn, Seranthony Dominguez, Cionel Perez, and Danny Coulombe. I would assume the Orioles already know what they are doing here. Also, in this five-day window, only the Orioles can negotiate with their free agents. There’s clearly no chance Burnes or Santander sign in the next five days but a player like James McCann could. So, by election day, some answers will be here. Once we get beyond this date, free agency can begin.

Speaking of election day, November 5^th is the first day of the GM meetings, which will last three days. Not much happens during those meetings outside of laying groundwork for potential trades and signings when teams meet with agents and players.

November 22^nd represents the non-tender deadline, a date a tremendous number of players to enter the free agent market.  Finally, we have the winter meetings December 9-12.

With those items as the foundation for the industry this offseason, the question for Orioles fans is, what will the team do?

As I wrote a few weeks ago, I believe the Orioles will only have around five roster spots available this offseason.  Beyond the player decisions I already mentioned, what they do with Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins will also be crucial decisions.

I would estimate that the Orioles payroll is around $80M right now, in terms of players on the field (based on who I expect them to keep and who I expect them to trade/let walk). According to Spotrac, Chris Davis, Alex Cobb and Bobby Bonilla will add another $14M in deferred money to the payroll.

Where does the payroll end up?  This is the first offseason for the new ownership group led by David Rubenstein. Rubenstein has said this offseason that he wants to “speed up the process” and that he knows at his age that he only has so much time to bring a World Series winner to Baltimore. Orioles fans are flocking to social media throwing out their ideas and saying that Rubenstein has deep pockets and that they expect him to spend big this offseason.

I would caution that while Rubenstein may be willing, will Mike Elias?  I have talked about this a lot in the past, but Elias came from Houston and before that St Louis. Those two teams do not traditionally spend big in free agency. They don’t throw out big long-term free agent deals. This is why I don’t think Burnes is coming back. I just do not see Elias going 6-7 years on a starter (which is the correct decision, in my opinion).

Is it possible Elias would spend $30ishM a year on one player?  Yes, I do think that’s possible, because of how many cheap players they have. Is it possible he would go three or even four years for the right player? Yes. This is why I think Blake Snell is realistic and, just a little bonus, Snell will not cause Baltimore to lose a draft pick, because the Giants cannot extend him a qualifying offer. The Orioles will lose Burnes and likely (hopefully) Santander and that will gain them two high picks. They also could get another one if Colton Cowser wins the Rookie of the Year award.

There are three big starters available this offseason. I already mentioned Burnes and Snell, but Max Fried is out there as well.

Here is the problem with all of them. They are all west coast guys. That is where they reportedly would like to be. Now, they are going to go where the money is but between the Mariners, Giants, Angels, Dodgers, DBacks and Padres, there is plenty of money out on the west coast and all those teams could be in the mix for a big-name starter. It very well could be that Elias puts out a tough offer to turn down, but those players just want to be out there.

If that happens, there is a solid tier of starters available beyond them. Players like Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikcuhi and Nathan Eovaldi lead that group. Realistically, this is the area where we should expect a signing to occur. A deal for 2-3 years and less than ~$50M is more in line with what the Orioles will likely do and while I know that would upset people, those guys could be very good pitchers.

We also do not know who will be available in trade, so that could certainly enter the picture. I do expect, as an example, Garrett Crochet to be available, but I wouldn’t consider him at what it will cost. He is a big injury risk in 2025, and he isn’t worth that risk to give up the level of player(s) it would require.

The other thing I think people need to understand about the payroll is that with only so many spots left, they can/will only spend so much money especially since some of the remaining spots are things like backup catcher.

If the Orioles sign Snell, I could see the payroll get close to $150M, but I think the more realistic expectation should be around $130M.  According to USA Today, that would have had the Orioles barely in the top 20 in 2024. Again, this will upset people, but the reality is that the Orioles just have a lot of players making very little money and they only have so many roster spots available.

You could argue that they should sign Pete Alonso… but why?  He is a declining player that is awful on defense and adds nothing running the bases plus, he blocks Coby Mayo and likely Samuel Basallo. They aren’t going to block those guys long term with a big contract to a declining player.

They certainly need a right-handed bat (at least one) to hit lefties, but names like Tyler O’Neill and especially Randal Grichuk make a lot more sense.

Will they bring back the same pen, plus Felix Bautista? Or will they have a spot or two open?  I think they will keep Dominguez and Gregory Soto, but let Perez go. I think they look to add one player, but I also don’t think Elias will spend big on a guy like Jeff Hoffman, especially with the money he will already have tied up in the pen.

For me, I think the Orioles are a borderline playoff team right now and their ceiling is high because of all the young talent and the steps forward those guys could take. I think free agency will supplement the roster, but it should never what you build around. In other words, what we have already here is why the team will fail or succeed. Free agents will just add to that.

The other huge question this offseason will be about extensions. Depending on who you talk to, the Orioles have two extension candidates in Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. I look at Gunnar as a no-brainer extension candidate even though whatever deal he signs (likely the Witt deal plus 5-10%) will not be a team-friendly deal. All it will do is guarantee him two or maybe three years (if we are lucky) lost from free agency but still, I think they should do it.

For me, the other extension candidate should be Jackson Holliday (as I would not extend Adley) but I think the Orioles would say it’s too early on Holliday (and I think they value Adley more than I do). I don’t mean to say I don’t value him. I think he is the most important player on the team and his slump last year is a big reason the O’s struggled down the stretch. However, at his age, position and with the offensive flaws he has, he is not a guy I would sign well into his 30’s.

Judging by what I read from fans, anything short of extending Gunnar, signing one of the big three starters and adding to the offense in a big way is going to be viewed as a failure. I think most of the fan base is going to be upset by this offseason, but I also think Elias makes moves that are smart and puts us in great shape for 2025.

The O’s are currently 12-1 to win the World Series and I think those odds only increase as we get closer to the season.