The O’s made another minor move yesterday, bringing in free agent outfielder Dylan Carlson. Carlson, a switch hitter, was a first-round pick of the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2016. He finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 after posting a 3.1 bWAR season, batting .266/.343/.437 (115 OPS+) with 31 2B, 18 HR, and 65 RBI in 149 games.
However, since then, his career has taken a bit of a nosedive. In 2022 he posted just 1.9 bWAR in 128 games, then 0.5 in 76 games in ’23, and finally -1.2 in 96 games between St. Louis and Tampa Bay last year.
So what does Mike Elias see in his latest damaged-goods reclamation project?
Carlson can play all three outfield spots, which is valuable. He is also a much better hitter right-handed during his career, posting a .285/.361/.431 line against southpaws, compared to just .219/.300/.355 against righties.
Now, we need to mention that last year, he was bad against everyone, as he posted a .533 OPS against righties and a .603 OPS against lefties (both at Jackson Holliday 2024 levels). Those numbers won’t fly, no matter how many outfield positions he plays. That was the outlier though, as you can see in his career splits by season below.
So yeah, he’s always been better as a righty. It’s just that the overall level of that production has steadily decreased from both sides of the plate. While many on social media are already calling him “trash” and “washed” and whatever other knee-jerk reactions, I think it’s fair to toss out 2024 and try to fix him. 2022-ish levels of production from the right side of the plate would be quite useful.
You have to assume this is another move to keep Cedric Mullins off the field against lefty starters, after he posted just a .506 OPS against lefties last year (compared to .766 vs. RHP). That would move Colton Cowser to CF, and while he’s another lefty, his splits aren’t as drastic as Ceddy’s (.806 vs. .661), and he’s still young enough that he can improve that part of his game.
The Birds now have a glut of outfielders though, to be sure. Between the three already mentioned, Tyler O’Neill, Heston Kjerstad, and Daz Cameron, plus guys like Jorge Mateo, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday (?), and Coby Mayo, who could play some outfield, a roster crunch is materializing.
That has some in Birdland expecting a trade to be imminent. Perhaps for the OTHER Dylan C. for whom many remain pining?
We’ll…c.
